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Originally Posted by philcski
R5: I really like #11 Scarlett's Place's chances in this race at 10-1. In her debut at Hol, she got slammed at the start, then rushed up between horses to grab 2nd behind a solid favorite, then weakened late to get nailed at the wire for 2nd. She will be much improved in this race, and while I respect the Pletcher filly speed is very poor on the Poly as we all know, which leaves the #10 (who ran super in her debut) off a long layoff as the other main contender.
R6: I feel very uncomfortable singling Wait a While on the soft turf, but she just may be that good. Since the start of '06 she has had exactly one poor effort, a disappointing 3rd in the Bonnie Miss. Getting beat 4 lengths in the BC by the other 2 best turf fillies in America and the best turf mare in the world isn't a bad effort, especially considering she was somewhat wide throughout. I really can't make a case for anyone else in here and would feel like I was throwing away money if I don't single her and she wins.
R7: A messy race I have no real strong opinion in, I will use 5 in the P4 and P6 and hope to survive- the 2,3,5,8, and 9.
R8: Steel Light is a beast. If he takes to the poly at ALL, he is unquestionably the one to beat. Missing all of '06 would be a huge black mark but he answered any questions about his physical condition in the Appleton, running a troubled second to Silver Tree who on talent alone is better than anyone else in here. Ramsgate is also a must use for obvious reasons; and the "most likeliest" winner outside of Midnight Lute. Ryan's for Real may or may not be for real; running a super 2nd to multiple G1 winner Silver Wagon at that guy's ideal distance/setup after dueling on the front end gives me hope that at 12-1 or higher he IS for real. Gin and Sin is a cut below these, but might be a good exotics add. Silent Name will likely take more action then I'd be interested in from a standalone race basis but I will not let him beat me in multirace wagers. I have no interest in the remaining group.
R9: Not much to discuss here that isn't already known; punch the 4 and 7 in multirace wagers and enjoy the battle. I can make a case for Zanjero and Dominican underneath but would be hard pressed to have them on top.
R10: Coming off the turf may be beneficial from a perspective of doping out this race. I will be using the 1 prominently, with the 4,7,8 as well. Has Kee Poly experience and success, and turns back off a marathon with a couple nice breezes in between that should sharpen her up.
P6 play:
4,10,11/2/8,9/4,5,7/4,7/1 $72
4,10,11/2/2,3,5/4,5,7/4,7/1 $108
4,10,11/2/8,9/6,8,10/4,7/1 $72
Total cost: $252
P4 play:
2,3,5,8,9/4,5,7/4,7/1,4,7,8 $120
2,3,5,8,9/4,5,6,7,8,10/4,7/1 $60
Total cost: $180 for $1
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04-14-2007, 05:44 PM
I can't win anywhere these days.
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