Preakness - I don't think I like anyone

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by Spendabuck85

At the bottom of this story

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18644477/

thanks!

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by XIIPointStables

Any Given Saturday?

Maybe Pletcher feels like he didn't take enough of my money Derby Day!

I just said that this morning...It will have to be AGS because I didn't burn enough money on him in the Wood and the Derby. Glad you and I are in the same boat!

NT

[XIIPointStables]

Quick look at the Belmont Work Tab:

Saturday:
King of the Roxy: 6F in 1:14:92 (1/2). Looks like he worked in company with Sunriver, who was clocked at the same distance and time.

Soaring By: 5F in 1:01:02 (3/13)

Looks like a bunch more Pletcher's worked Sunday, but none of the Derby 5. Are they all at Belmont?

From Brisnet.com

Hutcheson S. (G2) hero and Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up Kingoftheroxy, who worked six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 on Saturday, went straight back to the track on Sunday. The Team Valor colorbearer galloped 1 1/2 miles at Belmont Park, with Pletcher praising his appearance as "outstanding."

"We'll just basically gallop up to the race," he added.

When asked if Kingoftheroxy would be his only starter in Preakness 132, Pletcher didn't give a categorical answer.

"That's my decision as of this moment," the three-time Eclipse Award winner said.

In response to the inevitable follow-up question, whether that was subject to change, Pletcher said, "Always."

Pletcher would not be drawn into naming his second possible entrant, saying only that the decision would be made on Wednesday.

[Danzig]

wonder why he's being so coy about it.

[XIIPointStables]

Eh. There's a better chance that he doesn't run anyone and we'll spend three days trying to figure it out.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Danzig

wonder why he's being so coy about it.

That's it...you're onto it....THE GREEN MONKEY debuts in the Preakness!!!!!

NT

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

That's it...you're onto it....THE GREEN MONKEY debuts in the Preakness!!!!!

NT

Wins by 15 lengths, is assigned a 118 BSF, retires undefeated, awarded eclipse award for best 3YO, Pletcher hailed for greatest ever training effort.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

Wins by 15 lengths, is assigned a 118 BSF, retires undefeated, awarded eclipse award for best 3YO, Pletcher hailed for greatest ever training effort.

118? I'm thinking minimum 125. With that breeding...no doubt about it.

NT

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

118? I'm thinking minimum 125. With that breeding...no doubt about it.

NT

If he ran a 125 they would have to name a race after him.
"The Green Monkey Stakes"

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I am guessing Circular Quay.

You win.

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Undertaker injured? That's terrible. I had a feeling that Mark Henry was going to bring the pain. Was really surprised that Edge cashed in. I thought Mr Kennedy was the money in the bank guy. Guess I don't follow it as much as I should but I don't have cable.

Undertaker is the best

oh yeah Preakness something something... no Chelokee

Edge has become Vince's favorite, much like his son-in-law Triple HHH... so it was no surprise that Edge gets the belt.
Mr.Kennedy was supposed to have a "major" injury...but it wasn't as bad as they thought. The "Taker" though, will be MIA for several months.

It's too bad also that Chelokee will be in the "Barbaro" Stakes instead of the Preakness...
he was the only real threat to the Derby Top "3".

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Enough with bounce....it's imaginary and the sooner people realize this and start handicapping and analyzing races logically the better off they will be.

You cannot say this often enough, as far as I'm concerned. I cringed at the initial post in the thread.

--Dunbar

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You cannot say this often enough, as far as I'm concerned. I cringed at the initial post in the thread.

--Dunbar

It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

It makes you cringe that I think Street Sense and Hard Spun won't be able to produce the same effort twice in two weeks? Sorry for thinking that these are animals and not robots..

Nobody suggested they were robots, however the very real possibility exists that they are legitimately good horses, and actual good horses are able to run well over and over again.

It seems to me that horses didn't learn to bounce until Ragozin invented the theory.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Nobody suggested they were robots, however the very real possibility exists that they are legitimately good horses, and actual good horses are able to run well over and over again.

It seems to me that horses didn't learn to bounce until Ragozin invented the theory.

Horses bounce off of every type of figure, Beyer, TG, Ragozin, whatever.

I'm not eliminating the possibility that they run huge races back-to-back. But considering Nafzger's Derby-or-bust strategy and considering how strenous Hard Spun's race in the Derby looked TO ME, I think they both are vulnerable to regression and hence, why I don't like them in the Preakness.

Hope that you didn't cringe reading that.

[blackthroatedwind]

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

bouncing is just a word..it has no real meaning..a missed step; bad break,lost shoe..thats a real reason.or a tired /sore horse..

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Street Sense worked out a perfect trip in the Derby, so if he should run slightly worse in the Preakness it won't be because he bounced, it will almost certainly be due to circumstances. Hard Spun, while setting a strong pace that killed the roaches chasing him, was still able to dictate the pace in the Derby. Should the speed horses in the Preakness force him into the role of a chaser, or worse - embroil him in a speed duel, he will also most likely run worse due to race dynamics. Both situations could very possibly lead to what a simplistic analysis will call a bounce or regression when in fact it will be a very simple result of differing race dynamics.

This is very much the problem with the bounce excuse. Since the sheets don't take pace into account they explain performances incorrectly. While I am willing to admit regression is possible, though highly unlikely, far more horses that are considered to have " bounced " actually got favorable setups one day and then unfavorable ones the next.

I agree that the bounce excuse gets used far too often by sheets guys, but I also think that if Street Sense or Hard Spun doesn't run well, it may have to do with fitness, not just race dynamics.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree that the bounce excuse gets used far too often by sheets guys, but I also think that if Street Sense or Hard Spun doesn't run well, it may have to do with fitness, not just race dynamics.

Shouldn't this be easy to figure out? If they get good trips and come up empty, then I guess that would be the case.