P6 SYMPOSIUM: Carryover Contest

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by sumitas

It seems the upper limit on a realistic ticket would be $128, and preferably a lot less if you can single a couple of races. $128 would be AB/AB/AB/AB/AB/AB

This is absolutely the wrong mentality and specifically what this contest is trying to get away from.

[sumitas]

ok, i'm here to learn

[pmacdaddy]

Seems like the way you grade has a lot to do with how your A,B,C structure pans out.

I find myself being very stingy with A's. This makes me not really comfortable limiting my cover tickets to just A's and C's. Ended up using B+'s as well.

Guess it is all relative as long as you are comfortable with the horses that end up on your ticket.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Seems like the way you grade has a lot to do with how your A,B,C structure pans out.

I find myself being very stingy with A's. This makes me not really comfortable limiting my cover tickets to just A's and C's. Ended up using B+'s as well.

Guess it is all relative as long as you are comfortable with the horses that end up on your ticket.

I agree with all of this.

Basically this whole idea was borne out of discussions I have with Byk about how hard it is to hit Pick-6s. For example, suppose you make a play for like $200 like Steve often does, and you have five of six, it is often easy to say that you could have had the one you missed on your ticket. OK, fine, but at what cost? You can't legitimately say that you used two in the race you missed and he would have been the third horse ( bringing the ticket to roughly $300 ) without seeing where else you would have added horses. If you had to add even only three other horses to also include that winner your ticket begins to approach $1200 or more.

Personally I am not putting a lot into Pick-6s lately so the first thing I do is try to make a play I am comfortable with. If that play is over $2000 I realize it is a reasonably tough one to hit, and while I may play for a couple hundred just in case I am randomly really " smart, I won't play for $600 because that is too much to throw away.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by sumitas

ok, i'm here to learn

You cannot, and will not, hit Pick-6s playing like that and are better off not playing for such small amounts in general. If you are restricted by bankroll, find five friends and split a $600 investment. 16% of even five grand is a lot better than 100% of nothing.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The number of A horses fluctuates based on the races and opinions. Since A horses directly affect the cost of back-up tickets they are an integral part of the cost of the overall play. In simple terms going from one A in a race to two As will pretty much double the cost of your back-ups. All this comes down to how you spend your money on individual horses. In other words, using one A in any race will significantly alter how much more money you can spend in other places. Every horse you add will essentially come at the expense of other horses you will either leave off or use for less money. This is why, for instance, in a race with a solid single, deciding to use a much lesser as an additional A can be a poor choice as it will cost you horses in other races that may be significantly more important to use. Playing, and hitting, these bets can be very much, and usually is, about ticket structure within bankroll. Our opinion will rarely be good enough for six races to get through just by being " handicapping smart. "

I experienced this last night. After I posted all of my tickets (following the BTW structure), I had second thoughts on one of my C horses, I wanted to move him up to a B and onto the main ticket. I made the change and started to make the changes on the backup tickets (eliminating this horse as well as other C's to keep the ticket down) and it blew the $2,500 limit out of the water quickly.

Also picture me in a hotel room, with no caculator (didn't think to use the computer, but that is a whole different problem), calculating the ticket costs by hand on the back of the racing form. I gave up, left him as a C for contest purposes and left my tickets alone.

Good luck to everyone today. Thanks to Andy and Steve for dealing with us.

[10 pnt move up]

Great thread,

my thinking is I better not move onto pick 6's until I am really good with the pick 4 because it allows me to learn to make the plays at a much cheaper cost, and I am not even close to being there yet.

[Riot]

Was going to go to Churchill today, but too lazy, I think I'll stick home and watch the fun via computer and TV - here's hoping that somebody from Derby Trails hits one of them! Good luck to all.

[Holland Hacker]

I have read Crist's book and reread the multi-race chapters a few times. Every time I try to seperate fields into A / B / C / X categories I always seem to have too many A & B horse to make up playable tickets (for Pick 4s and 6s, that is why I seldom play the pick 6).

How do you guys define & differentiate your As from your Bs from your Cs. I understand that Xs are ones you feel have no shot a winning.

I usually have 2 or 3 As & the same amount of Bs. I think that could be beacuse I always used to play 3 horse exacta boxes and got in the habit of picking 3 horses every race.

I guess my take away from this exercise should be to narrow down my As to the one or maximum two horses that I feel have a REAL chance to win the race. Followed by Bs using them as the next most likely to win.

Thanks in advance for you comments.

[blackthroatedwind]

You seperate As, Bs, and Cs by personal opinion and I guess relative chances of winning, relative versus their fields and the other races. It's hardly an exact science. Your ability to place horses will ultimately determine how successful you are.

[Holland Hacker]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You seperate As, Bs, and Cs by personal opinion and I guess relative chances of winning, relative versus their fields and the other races. It's hardly an exact science. Your ability to place horses will ultimately determine how successful you are.

Not to be stupid but how does my opinion in one race factor into my opinion in another race?

Are you implying that my opinion of a horse in race 2 has to be stronger than my opinion of a horse in race 4 when determining which of the two are classified as an A because if you include them both as As the ticket will grow exponentially?

To show how naive I am, I never even considered comparing the relative strength of horses in different races when classifying as A B or C. It adds a whole new dimension to the enigma.

Just when I thought I had a clue.

Thanks Andy.

[blackthroatedwind]

To me, strength of opinions in different races is very relevant.

Ask yourself, which race do you feel it is more important to spend the most money in order to get through it.

[SniperSB23]

I didn't have much time to cap but quickly went through the Churchill races and threw together a piece of paper with the six races across the top and just A, B, and C down the left side with a lot of space in between them. I then went through each race placing the number of the horse where I thought they belonged (well above A, between A and B, right on C, well below C, etc). I found having them all relatively mapped out in front of me was very helpful when trying to determine which horses to move up or down. Might be worth trying for some of the people looking for new ways to put together your ticket.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Holland Hacker

I have read Crist's book and reread the multi-race chapters a few times. Every time I try to seperate fields into A / B / C / X categories I always seem to have too many A & B horse to make up playable tickets (for Pick 4s and 6s, that is why I seldom play the pick 6).

How do you guys define & differentiate your As from your Bs from your Cs. I understand that Xs are ones you feel have no shot a winning.

I usually have 2 or 3 As & the same amount of Bs. I think that could be beacuse I always used to play 3 horse exacta boxes and got in the habit of picking 3 horses every race.

I guess my take away from this exercise should be to narrow down my As to the one or maximum two horses that I feel have a REAL chance to win the race. Followed by Bs using them as the next most likely to win.

Thanks in advance for you comments.

Playing the P4 in this manner (NOT the P6, whereas the objective is to merely survive), you can emphasize your value selections by having a double or triple through your overlaid selections.

Essentially, a 15/1 horse can make a P4, whereas by using him as an A over perhaps a "more likely" 3/1 winner whom everyone will have I'm willing to sacrifice having a moderate payoff P4 for $2 or $3 instead of $1 for the one time a month or quarter where that 15/1 gets home, I want that one for the full $2.

[Holland Hacker]

I guess you're correct. It is better to spend more money when you have less of an opinion just to get through that particular leg. Given that, you would probably have more As than in a race where you do have a strong opinion.

Good Point.

Thanks again.

[Payson Dave]

I am interested in hearing some feedback regarding the following Pick 6 Wagering thoughts???

If you were to go 3 deep in all six races, then based upon $2 per combination, it would cost you 3x3x3x3x3x3x2 = $1428
To cut down on the cost of the ticket I have used a strategy of keying a top pick in each of three out of the first five legs…the thought process being that with a little luck and some decent handicapping three of my top selections in the first five legs will win…also I figure that if I am alive going into the last leg then I want to have multiple chances of making a score…so each ticket will have all three of my selections for the final leg
The tickets would look like this: (A= top selection, B & C are backup selections)
A/A/A/ABC/ABC/ABC ($54)
A/A/BC/A/ABC/ABC ($36)
A/A/BC/BC/A/ABC ($24)
A/BC/A/A/ABC/ABC ($36)
A/BC/A/BC/A/ABC ($24)
A/BC/BC/A/A/ABC ($24)
BC/A/A/A/ABC/ABC ($36)
BC/A/A/BC/A/ABC ($24)
BC/BC/A/A/A/ABC ($24)

Total cost for the 9 tickets is $282

• If my top picks win all 5 of the first five legs then I’m alive going into the final leg.
• If my top picks win any four of the first five legs and one of my backup selections wins the other leg then I’m alive going into the final leg.
• If my top picks win any three of the first five legs and one of my backup selections wins the other two legs then I’m alive going into the final leg.

I have hit a couple of Pic 6’s using this basic Strategy (one for 12k and another for 8k)
(I think I may have gone two deep in one race and four deep in another as a slight variation)

[dellinger63]

though I hit the pic 6 (factiously), I hit it on a backup... think this might make BTW's point and we've been all educated.......

[Kasept]

Have to take a minute to thank Andy for taking so much time this week to again moderate the P6 Carryover Symposium/Contest and all those that took part.. It was again a smashing success, and another example of the eagerness of DTers to share their interest and passion for the game here..

He'd never admit it publicly, but Andy is one of the games' top defenders of horseplayers, lobbying behind the scenes endlessly for tracks and the industry to 'do the right thing' by those that put their money through the windows. His willingness to share knowledge with others is legion, and his contributions here, and in association with DRF and YouBet, are invaluable.

Winners that haven't sent me their addreses, should do so, and I will get their prizes out to them! (Winners of slices of pie will need to wait until Toga to claim their confection..)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You cannot, and will not, hit Pick-6s playing like that and are better off not playing for such small amounts in general. If you are restricted by bankroll, find five friends and split a $600 investment. 16% of even five grand is a lot better than 100% of nothing.

That doesn't work when your friends are even broker than you are..

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by mortimerdexterfoxworthy

That's God making hand shadows of you.

So now YOU'RE God? Between you and GodOHGod, I can't tell you two apart anymore.