4/12 (KEE): Blue Grass (Gr. I)

[Danzig]

how do the horses who finish 15-20 enhance the race?

[hockey2315]

It's not about after the race, but before.

[Cajungator26]

Though I would like to see Big Truck get another win, I have a hunch that Kentucky Bear is going to run big here. I'll probably bet a trillion dollars on him to win if his odds stay generous.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Though I would like to see Big Truck get another win, I have a hunch that Kentucky Bear is going to run big here. I'll probably bet a trillion dollars on him to win if his odds stay generous.

why do ppl like kentucky bear ? how many horse run big breaking there maiden then never ever run back to that . and now ppl like this horse to beat this group, i think he has a better chance to run last.

[JJP]

Re: Kentucky Bear, because when one sees a 50-1 shot with a legit shot at crashing the tri.......although realistically I doubt he will be over 20-1. The horse was 4-1 in the FOY.

As for who should like the surface and who shouldn't, while I'm not a fan of synthetics, I've been tracking what stallions' offspring handle it best. Here's who should move up and who should regress:

SHOULD MOVE UP
Visionaire- Grand Slam is one of the top synthetic sires I've seen. GS first time poly has been a strong angle. GS's usually handle dirt or turf.
Cowboy Cal--Giants Causeway another solid synthetic sire. He's only run on dirt once and that was sprinting against a strong field of Sar Mdns
Kentucky Bear--love the Mr. Greeley offspring on synthetic. As a runner, I only remember him running on dirt but his offspring like the fake stuff.

LOOKING TO REGRESS
Big Truck---I really haven't seen many Hook and Ladder runners but he was strictly a dirt sprinter. His turf Tomlinson is solid but he'll have to show me first.
Pyro---he may be good enough to win even if he doesn't really love the stuff. Like AP Indy, most Pulpits would rather run on real dirt or grass.
Cool Coal Man--haven't seen many Mineshafts yet but being by AP Indy, they tend to be overbet on Poly.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by JJP

Re: Kentucky Bear, because when one sees a 50-1 shot with a legit shot at crashing the tri.......although realistically I doubt he will be over 20-1. The horse was 4-1 in the FOY.

As for who should like the surface and who shouldn't, while I'm not a fan of synthetics, I've been tracking what stallions' offspring handle it best. Here's who should move up and who should regress:

SHOULD MOVE UP
Visionaire- Grand Slam is one of the top synthetic sires I've seen. GS first time poly has been a strong angle. GS's usually handle dirt or turf.
Cowboy Cal--Giants Causeway another solid synthetic sire. He's only run on dirt once and that was sprinting against a strong field of Sar Mdns
Kentucky Bear--love the Mr. Greeley offspring on synthetic. As a runner, I only remember him running on dirt but his offspring like the fake stuff.

LOOKING TO REGRESS
Big Truck---I really haven't seen many Hook and Ladder runners but he was strictly a dirt sprinter. His turf Tomlinson is solid but he'll have to show me first.
Pyro---he may be good enough to win even if he doesn't really love the stuff. Like AP Indy, most Pulpits would rather run on real dirt or grass.
Cool Coal Man--haven't seen many Mineshafts yet but being by AP Indy, they tend to be overbet on Poly.

he will 100% be over 20-1.
there are to many other horses to be bet hard in here.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Yes.

I like Monba too.

I'm thinking the same way Big Truck and Monba worked well here and they are two that need this one. Trying to figure some combinations with them around the two chalks.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

I'm thinking the same way Big Truck and Monba worked well here and they are two that need this one. Trying to figure some combinations with them around the two chalks.

how does big truck need this ?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

how does big truck need this ?

for the money.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Danzig

for the money.

I figured he was in off his Tampa Bay Derby win. ???

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

I figured he was in off his Tampa Bay Derby win. ???

tagg says it's close, that there are other preps, and other horses who could move in ahead of big truck.

[SniperSB23]

I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I don't really understand how people can be backing Pyro at anything close to even money in a full field when he has no form on synthetics, Pulpits have not done well on synthetics, Lapenta has already said that Stevil is there to get in Pyro's way as much as possible, and he doesn't need the earnings like some others so won't be fully cranked. You already have four horses with decent synthetic/turf form in Monba, Cowboy Cal, Halo Najib, and Medjool that at 15/1+ on the morning line all make for far better plays. Plus if Kentucky Bear goes off anywhere near 50/1 he's a great play. Honestly, I think considering the circumstances that Pyro is only about 50/50 to even hit the board.

You are 100% correct about the Pulpits on synthetic. He's by AP Indy and I don't like AP Indys on the fake stuff. I'm hoping Pyro doesn't handle it; will definitely help his price for 3 weeks down the road.

I have to think Pyro has a very
good chance of winning mainly because he
is the best horse. No I would not bet it at
the prices given. And maybe it is a fairly
meaningless race for him other than
a workout. But maybe the horse does
not know this.

So they roll down the stretch, and Shaun B.
feels Pyro telling him lets go. The horse knows what
he is supposed to do. So S.B does not
ask him?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by JJP

You are 100% correct about the Pulpits on synthetic. He's by AP Indy and I don't like AP Indys on the fake stuff. I'm hoping Pyro doesn't handle it; will definitely help his price for 3 weeks down the road.

ap indy is #6 on the top synthetic sires list, so he's not a throw out. pulpit on the other hand....

by the same token, pulpit is #6 for turfers, ap indy nowhere to be found. but many think that turf = poly and vice versa, so who knows?

i don't think pyro is an automatic toss, but i wouldn't bet him either-not at the odds he'll be.

[nfliehman]

I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by nfliehman

I dont understand half of what you guys talk about on here lol but Im learning as I go. Alot of helpful info though so thank you guys. Goodluck to all today. With that said I havnt heard much talk about Visionaire. Does he stand a shot to hit the board with the 12 posts he drew?

Everyone but Stone Bird stands a shot to hit the board here.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Everyone but Stone Bird stands a shot to hit the board here.

Stone Bird = Belmont winner.

All kidding aside, probably not ... but it would be ironic.

Because its on the rubber,
I think Sniper is right.

But I think people might be wishing a bit
too much also. Bettors and Owners.
The main reason we got 13 horses going
against Pyro is the rubber (and that there
is a possible intention to use this as a training
session before the real event). If this were a dirt
event and Pyro needed the money to get in,
the field would be much shorter of course.
A few would be thrown in because its the last
chance for some of these to get enough earnings.

There would be no other horses I like enough
to go against the best horse in this race. I wish I
had strong feelings about one other as a winner but
I personally do not. Its neat to read the views of others.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Danzig

ap indy is #6 on the top synthetic sires list, so he's not a throw out. pulpit on the other hand....

by the same token, pulpit is #6 for turfers, ap indy nowhere to be found. but many think that turf = poly and vice versa, so who knows?

i don't think pyro is an automatic toss, but i wouldn't bet him either-not at the odds he'll be.

THat's on money won, correct? And how much of that was from AP Excellent? Since I started tracking, of 34 AP Indy runners making their first start on synthetic, only 3 won and that returned about $28. That's well below $1.00 returned for every $2 wagered.