Can someone explain the Colonel John silliness to me?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by mclem10011

Chuck does that make sense, from a trainers POV? Wouldn't you want to see how he works at least once, or eveen just a breeze to see even any signals of how he may handle it on race day?

I see both sides of the street. Say he works so-so? Do you not run?

[mclem10011]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I see both sides of the street. Say he works so-so? Do you not run?

I see your point, but because anything can happen in the race, even if he worked so, so I'd still take a shot barring any injury or sickness.

[Thunder Gulch]

If they don't see a poor work, at least they get the thrill until he hits the second turn and see he's spinning his wheels. If he went over to CD and floundered, the connections would have all kinds of doubt instead of optimism...dumb reason not to work him there, but it's a reason regardless.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

If they don't see a poor work, at least they get the thrill until he hits the second turn and see he's spinning his wheels. If he went over to CD and floundered, the connections would have all kinds of doubt instead of optimism...dumb reason not to work him there, but it's a reason regardless.

Exactly. The second guessing will be in full force. The truth is that one work over CD isnt nearly as important as it once was. For my own selfish reasons i would like to see him work but I get what Harty is doing.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I think he will handle the track.They aren't worried about that.I think he'll be close to winning,but he can't afford trouble.He is good,but not dominant.There was a horse in the Santa Anita Derby who got 1st run on him.If he'd of kept running,then he would of held Colonel off.So,if you play this horse to win,then you have to hope that the faster horses can't keep running the full 10 f.That's possible,but I wouldn't want to count on it.It's not like if he runs his race then it's game over.He is consistent.No problems coming in.He has never really run a huge race.I think if he had then he'd look very typical (of a Derby winner.) That's the question-is he good enough? I think he might have to improve over dirt(in order to win it.) The trainer thinks he might be better on dirt.Who knows? I think you deserve 10-1 on the win end,and doubt you'll get it.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

I think he will handle the track.They aren't worried about that.I think he'll be close to winning,but he can't afford trouble.He is good,but not dominant.There was a horse in the Santa Anita Derby who got 1st run on him.If he'd of kept running,then he would of held Colonel off.So,if you play this horse to win,then you have to hope that the faster horses can't keep running the full 10 f.That's possible,but I wouldn't want to count on it.It's not like if he runs his race then it's game over.He is consistent.No problems coming in.He has never really run a huge race.I think if he had then he'd look very typical (of a Derby winner.) That's the question-is he good enough? I think he might have to improve over dirt(in order to win it.) The trainer thinks he might be better on dirt.Who knows? I think you deserve 10-1 on the win end,and doubt you'll get it.

10/1 is a pipe dream, especially now that War Pass is adios. War Pass leaving makes Big Brown probably 9/5 now. War Pass would have been a suckers 8/1 IMO.

[geeker2]

besides all the above...... he is a dual qualifier!!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

10/1 is a pipe dream, especially now that War Pass is adios. War Pass leaving makes Big Brown probably 9/5 now. War Pass would have been a suckers 8/1 IMO.

What is with this? Every time I see someone call Big Brown's odds, it's lower than the previous "estimate". I don't think there's any way he's lower than 5/2. That's still a major underlay though.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

What is with this? Every time I see someone call Big Brown's odds, it's lower than the previous "estimate". I don't think there's any way he's lower than 5/2. That's still a major underlay though.

I think people will unload on this horse. You have cocky connections that will be in front of the media all week, a good name, sheet talk, and what else in the race.

I mean, listen, I can't stand the horse, mostly because of the connections, and I won't be using him, but if he runs his race, he will destroy this field, by OPEN lengths. I'll take that risk but his number is absolutely monsterous compared to this field.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

I think people will unload on this horse. You have cocky connections that will be in front of the media all week, a good name, sheet talk, and what else in the race.

I mean, listen, I can't stand the horse, mostly because of the connections, and I won't be using him, but if he runs his race, he will destroy this field, by OPEN lengths. I'll take that risk but his number is absolutely monsterous compared to this field.

I don't think numbers mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to a horse this green and this fragile.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

There are a lot of trainers in this country.Did these people just happen to end up with the top 3 year old in the country,and the top sprinter in the country? I guess it's possible....Add in the B.C. Turf mile winner.That's kind of odd(the way the horse talent just seemed to cluster like that,huh?)

[Scav]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think numbers mean a whole hell of a lot when it comes to a horse this green and this fragile.

You don't think that people are going to hear that this horse ran a neg 3 and no one is even close to that? People eat that stuff up

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Scav

You don't think that people are going to hear that this horse ran a neg 3 and no one is even close to that? People eat that stuff up

People who bet based solely on figures will pound him. I think that's a very minor part of the betting public though, even on Derby day.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Joey,what about all the money people just won't bet on the others(because they think BROWN simply has different fuel in his tank.)It's not just that people will play BROWN. You can't really bet heavy against a barn with horses who don't get tired.

[Gander]

Okay, who do you think the people that were going to bet War Pass are going to bet now?

Zito obsessors: Cool Coal Man.
Front runner lovers: Bob Black Jack or Recapture the Glory
Maybe just the best horse trained by the best trainer, Big Brown.

I say those 4 horses are going to take the majority of the cash that was to be bet on War Pass maybe in this order...

1) Big Brown- Logically the best horse trained by the guy with more tricks up his sleeve than a magician.

2) Cool Coal Man- Some people just want Zito to win this badly and dont wouldnt want to be without a win ticket if Zito were to win this race.

3) Bob Black Jack- Hes been the "4th most mentioned California horse", if you will. Gayego and Colonel John are hot, hot, hot in the media right now, but El Galo Malo's stock has plummeted and probably wont even run in the Derby.

4) Recapture the Glory- the least because not many people even know the Illinois Derby is a race.


I think Big Brown goes off 2/1 and Colonel John about 5/1, and guess which one of these I think is the bigger underlay? Yup, Colonel John at 5/1.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Cardus

I think that the people who bet this way make up a miniscule amount of the win pool.

In most races I would agree, but the Derby is a bit different. You get guys who never bet any other race all year long but the Derby. Celebrities who lay down tens of thousands of dollars, and Nick has friends in the celebrity circle. I'm not talking about horse racing celebrities either (is there such a thing?), I am talking about real celebrities who make the cover of magazines.
Jack Black bet 25K on the Derby last year. Jerry O' Connell reportedly had over 40K in bets. Kid Rock got on National TV and showed America his ticket, which had to cost over $20 grand.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Gander

In most races I would agree, but the Derby is a bit different. You get guys who never bet any other race all year long but the Derby. Celebrities who lay down tens of thousands of dollars, and Nick has friends in the celebrity circle. I'm not talking about horse racing celebrities either (is there such a thing?), I am talking about real celebrities who make the cover of magazines.
Jack Black bet 25K on the Derby last year. Jerry O' Connell reportedly had over 40K in bets. Kid Rock got on National TV and showed America his ticket, which had to cost over $20 grand.

Ya Zito and Kid Rock go way back . . .

[Gander]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Ya Zito and Kid Rock go way back . . .

LOL, you'd be surprised who Nick knows. Ben Afflect brings over 100K with him when he goes. Phil Mickelson, also a huge gambler. Doesnt make bets under 50K. Judd Nelson (ex breakfast Club & St. Elmos Fire actor) loves to plunk down thousands on this race as well.
I dont believe that this kind of money wouldnt affect pools. There are only a few trainers who rub elbows with the real celebs, and Nick is one of them.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think all of those people you speak of must have all bet very early on Imawildandcrazyguy last year.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

People who bet based solely on figures will pound him. I think that's a very minor part of the betting public though, even on Derby day.

I think that you are underestimating them. They are the dominant factor in most pools.