5/3 (CD): 134th Kentucky Derby (Gr. I)

[geof]

I'm from up north we don't have to pay tax on tickets over $600.00. I thought they were doing away with that tax down there too.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Don't you think that's a tad misleading considering he faced Big Brown last time out?

no

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

no

So it doesn't matter that he faced what's easily the fastest three-year-old in the country, all that matters is how far behind him he finished?

[Danzig]

a horse wins at 7f.
finishes third, about a length back of the winner at 1 1/16.
he finishes second, but almost 8 lengths back, at 1 1/8. so, because he finished second to big brown, i should consider him? but i should ignore the 8 length loss?

besides, isn't big brown running saturday? is he suddenly slower? should i ignore the fact that smooth air is further back the longer the distance becomes when he is facing his longest race yet?

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

My stab at final odds.....

1. Cool Coal Man, Julien Leparoux 25-1
2. Tale of Ekati, Eibar Coa 20-1
3. Anak Nakal, Rafael Bejarano 60-1
4. Court Vision, Garret Gomez 12-1
5. Eight Belles, Gabriel Saez 20-1
6. Z Fortune, Robby Albarado 15-1
7. Big Truck, Javier Castellano 45-1
8. Visionaire, Jose Lezcano 25-1
9. Pyro, Shaun Bridgmohan 8-1
10. Colonel John, Corey Nakatani 4-1
11. Z Humor, Rene Douglas 65-1
12. Smooth Air, Manoel Cruz 30-1
13. Bob Black Jack, Richard Migliore 25-1
14. Monba, Ramon Dominguez 20-1
15. Adriano, Edgar Prado 35-1
16. Denis of Cork, Calvin Borel 25-1
17. Cowboy Cal, John Velazquez 25-1
18. Recapturetheglory, E. T. Baird 70-1
19. Gayego, Mike Smith 25-1
20. Big Brown, Kent Desormeaux 3-1

[hockey2315]

I'd be shocked (and ecstatic) if Denis of Cork goes off at 25-1. . . But I think he's going to take a ton of $. . .

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

a horse wins at 7f.
finishes third, about a length back of the winner at 1 1/16.
he finishes second, but almost 8 lengths back, at 1 1/8. so, because he finished second to big brown, i should consider him? but i should ignore the 8 length loss?

besides, isn't big brown running saturday? is he suddenly slower? should i ignore the fact that smooth air is further back the longer the distance becomes when he is facing his longest race yet?

Yes, you should. Call me crazy, but I think there is at least some correlation between lengths beaten and level of competition.

Besides, he lost by 5, not 8. Is there another horse in the field that you think would've lost by considerably less?

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Danzig

a horse wins at 7f.
finishes third, about a length back of the winner at 1 1/16.
he finishes second, but almost 8 lengths back, at 1 1/8. so, because he finished second to big brown, i should consider him? but i should ignore the 8 length loss?

besides, isn't big brown running saturday? is he suddenly slower? should i ignore the fact that smooth air is further back the longer the distance becomes when he is facing his longest race yet?

Why do my PP's have Big Brown only winning by 5 and not 8?

Smooth Air ran a faster speed figure going 1 1/8th than he did going 7f.

in 2001 Congaree won the Wood Memorial by what? 2-3 lengths in front of Monarchos. In some ways Smooth Air reminds me of Monarchos.

I am not betting Smooth Air because he was/is sick. Not because of the Derby distance or the number of lengths he was beat by Big Brown.

....on a different note.. why do some want to include Court Vision and not Tale of Ekati?

[Danzig]

i thought he had won by 7 or so, my mistake.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by geof

I'm from up north we don't have to pay tax on tickets over $600.00. I thought they were doing away with that tax down there too.

in the state of llinois it doesn't matter if you spent $600 to win $500
they want their cut of the $500
they are like the mob.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i thought he had won by 7 or so, my mistake.

no, I think that was Curlin..

anyway.... I think Bellamy Road err Big Brown has his work cut out for him post does not help him. I don't know.. Maybe everyone will take back and let him go by.

he's a favorite
it's the Kentucky Derby

get my

Point Given

[geof]

That law is brutal. Most of all wager's are placed with after tax money. It's like a double tax. As for the Derby, the last 6 winners have come from 6 different tracks at odds of 4-1 to 50-1, so I don't think there is any real way to figure this race out. Go with your gut..... Go CJ.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'd be shocked (and ecstatic) if Denis of Cork goes off at 25-1. . . But I think he's going to take a ton of $. . .

I'd love 25-1 on D of C too, What are his odds in pool 3?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'd love 25-1 on D of C too, What are his odds in pool 3?

26-1 but I don't think that's indicative of what he'll be. . .

[ShadowRoll]

Originally Posted by Danzig

a horse wins at 7f.
finishes third, about a length back of the winner at 1 1/16.
he finishes second, but almost 8 lengths back, at 1 1/8. so, because he finished second to big brown, i should consider him? but i should ignore the 8 length loss?

besides, isn't big brown running saturday? is he suddenly slower? should i ignore the fact that smooth air is further back the longer the distance becomes when he is facing his longest race yet?

I'm not one of those ultra-mathematical pace figure guys, but I try to think out the likely pace scenarios, in the manner such as Brohamer writes about in his chapter on pace in Bet With the Best (except that with a race as long as the Derby, I key on the likely positions of the horses at the second call rather than the first). Smooth Air easily survives the early pace and seems to me likely, of the many pressers in this race, to get first crack at the frontrunners. Also, when you look at the Brisnet pace figures (E1 E2/ LATE), Smooth Air's best recent numbers (96 111/ 94) aren't that far off the Derby par (96 107/ 102). Only Big Brown's recent numbers are better (107 117/ 98), but Smooth Air has a stronger best late pace figure (105) than BB (98).

One difference (among many, I know) between this race and the Florida Derby is that Big Brown is way out in the 20 hole, where he's going to have to expend a lot of energy to obtain at least a decent stalking position (especially with Gayego on his immediate inside, who I think will have to go with BB), whereas Smooth Air will have a much easier time obtaining a good position from the 12 hole.

Bottom line is that both Big Brown and Smooth Air ran a near Kentucky Derby caliber performance in the Florida Derby, in terms of pace. Smooth Air, due to his superior position, has the better chance of improving in this race off that performance, in my opinion.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by geof

That law is brutal. Most of all wager's are placed with after tax money. It's like a double tax. As for the Derby, the last 6 winners have come from 6 different tracks at odds of 4-1 to 50-1, so I don't think there is any real way to figure this race out. Go with your gut..... Go CJ.

and if I overpaid my taxes and receive a refund they count that as taxable income.

My gut is telling me Z something is the bet

[slotdirt]

I slept zero hours last night because I'm pretty certain I have food poisoning. I am beat to hell and would normally not even consider going anywhere today, but I'm sure as heck not letting some unfortunate vittles keep me from Louisville on the first Saturday in May. To top it all off, Kiaran McLaughlin is on my plane.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by AeWingnut

Smooth Air ran a faster speed figure going 1 1/8th than he did going 7f.

in 2001 Congaree won the Wood Memorial by what? 2-3 lengths in front of Monarchos. In some ways Smooth Air reminds me of Monarchos.
?

Except that Smooth Air is BRED to be best at 7/8f, and Monarchos had more of a staying pedigree.

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Except that Smooth Air is BRED to be best at 7/8f, and Monarchos had more of a staying pedigree.

I bet Monarchos
not betting Smooth Air
but the way my luck has gone
Smooth Air is..... a lock

The heaviest $2 in racing is keying 2 horses
Z Fortune & Tale of Ekati
so.. you can toss them with confidence

I am providing a service when I tell you who I am betting. If only there was a way I could market it. Convince the connections of horses to pay me not to bet their horse.

[CSC]

Seems like most people who have seen the works from churchill from DRF to Haskin are raving about Denis of Cork. Sounds like he will run a big race, but is he good enough? Street Sense and Barbaro were atleast accomplished horses going into the Derby.

I thought Z Fortune ran a good race considering he was in the 3 and 4 path for much of his last race. But something tells me he is not as good as Pyro, perhaps this is the year a non spectacular 3 yr old wins the Derby and though I have misgivings that The Jock Shaun couldn't drive his way out of an empty highway. I wouldn't be surprised if Pyro wasn't picking up the pieces late this Saturday and perhaps fall short again or just maybe take the entire thing.