What Smarty Jones faced in 2004 & what Big Brown faces on Saturday....the difference?

[dalakhani]

[quote=CSC]I disagree, as per Kent D 's weakness at times he moved early and got caught on the inside of Sarava on a track that doesn't favor being on the inside. Run the race 3 times, and In my opinion Sarava is not a better horse than Medaglia Doro.

QUOTE]

How do you know if it didnt favor being on the inside THAT DAY? That changes day to day. Sometimes the rail is dead and sometimes it isnt. If Kent is an idiot for being inside so were 3/4 of the other jockeys in that field including Victor who made his move on War Emblem to the inside.

Of course MDO was a better horse than Sarava and no one would ever question that. But on that day at 12f? Sarava had it his way although it might even be fair to say that MDO ran a better race.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by CSC

Here is the replay of the 2002 Belmont. Yep Medaglia Doro sure packs it in.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYcdUcjQNu4

That horse NEVER packed it in and no one said he did. He just couldnt get it done.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by CSC

I respectively disagree. I will concede one part he was probably at his best at 1 1 /8. However that doesn't mean he couldn't get 1 1/4 or he shouldn't have won the Belmont.

Fair enough...I respect your opinion. MDO was a fine horse. I just dont think he wanted to go that far. Either way, its done now.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Fair enough...I respect your opinion. MDO was a fine horse. I just dont think he wanted to go that far. Either way, its done now.

I understand your argument, thanks. I think and believe MDO's best distances are probably 9 furlongs and less, that I think we both agree on. Now saying that he did finish 2nd 5 times from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 all grade 1 races. The lowest beyer of 4 races that were beyered was 104 in the Belmont and his beyers ranged from 104-106-117-118. Now beyers don't necessarily mean a horse is great, but I think it is a good measure of his quality in this instance.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by CSC

I understand your argument, thanks. I think and believe MDO's best distances are probably 9 furlongs and less, that I think we both agree on. Now saying that he did finish 2nd 5 times from 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 all grade 1 races. The lowest beyer of 4 races that were beyered was 104 in the Belmont and his beyers ranged from 104-106-117-118. Now beyers don't necessarily mean a horse is great, but I think it is a good measure of his quality in this instance.

At 9f, MDO could be the best horse of this decade. I know that is a statement but i think it can be supported. I always had a lot of respect for the horse. I was there when he lost that race to Buddha in the wood, when he beat Repent at Toga and when he lost in the BC in 2003.

The only race where i saw the jockey get that horse beat was the bailey ride in the preakness. Frankel lost his mind and that is why kent got him in the belmont.

The belmont is a tough race on the jockey because it is a distance the horse has never travelled before nor will he ever travel again after an excruciating campaign on a young horse. The usual race riding techniques can win you minor battles but lose the war. Did you notice in that belmont how kent left the door open for War Emblem inside then closed it shut for about 3 furlongs before the inside horse let War Emblem through at the rail? Sometimes, the jockey has no choice but to go. So what was Kent's choice here? He had the favorite (war emblem) on the ropes and war emblem trying to press on and steal it around the turn. So do you sit back and continue rating and hope war emblem dies or do you pummel him into submission when you have the chance? Do you continue to fight your horse who is ready to roll?

He moved when he was supposed to and anyone in the game would tell you the same thing. War Emblem forced his hand with the early inside move. Racing luck and distance conspired against MDO that day, not the ride.

Now in the real quiet race, he moved early. much much too early. In this race he sat chilly until war emblem made the move and his instructions were not to let war emblem get alone on the lead.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't agree about Kent D blowing the ride in the Belmont, but this is silly. He ran his eyeballs out that day and lost to a horse, who if healthy might have been something real special. Go back and take a look at Candy Ride's races. No shame in running second to him.

Don't take this the wrong way but you don't actually read/take seriously the trip comments on this board do you?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Of course I do. I take a mixture of what I read here and on PA and then formulate an opinion. Is that bad?

There's nothing I like better than discussing the nuances of trips as there are so many interesting things that happen in races. Unfortunately, lately, as a result of experience, most of these discussions are INTERNAL.

More power to you.

[SniperSB23]

Do you guys remember what Birdstone's PPs looked like before the Belmont?

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/04belmont.pdf

Those are no better than most that will be in this year's Belmont. Purge is really the only one that would stand out against this field as bad as it is. And I'm not convinced in the least that Big Brown is even as good as Smarty Jones.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't agree about Kent D blowing the ride in the Belmont, but this is silly. He ran his eyeballs out that day and lost to a horse, who if healthy might have been something real special. Go back and take a look at Candy Ride's races. No shame in running second to him.

No shame in that at all. Candy ride was Ghostzapper talented. but MDO got smoked that day.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Do you guys remember what Birdstone's PPs looked like before the Belmont?

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/04belmont.pdf

Those are no better than most that will be in this year's Belmont. Purge is really the only one that would stand out against this field as bad as it is. And I'm not convinced in the least that Big Brown is even as good as Smarty Jones.

Master David would get play in this field, let alone Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, and Purge, who would be 2nd choice. In Master David's PP's, EVERY SINGLE runner who hit the board was eventually a graded stakes winner but one. Birdstone's PP's look pretty damned good relative to this field. This field is TERRIBLE absent BB and Casino Drive and maybe Denis of Cork.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by philcski

Master David would get play in this field, let alone Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, and Purge, who would be 2nd choice. In Master David's PP's, EVERY SINGLE runner who hit the board was eventually a graded stakes winner but one. Birdstone's PP's look pretty damned good relative to this field. This field is TERRIBLE absent BB and Casino Drive and maybe Denis of Cork.

Damn you for bringing Master David into this.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by philcski

Master David would get play in this field, let alone Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, and Purge, who would be 2nd choice. In Master David's PP's, EVERY SINGLE runner who hit the board was eventually a graded stakes winner but one. Birdstone's PP's look pretty damned good relative to this field. This field is TERRIBLE absent BB and Casino Drive and maybe Denis of Cork.

This is a terrible field no doubt but I think people are vastly overrating the 2004 field because of what Eddington and RHT did as 4yos and what Birdstone did in this race and the Travers. Going into the race it really didn't look like that much on paper.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by philcski

Master David would get play in this field, let alone Rock Hard Ten, Eddington, and Purge, who would be 2nd choice. In Master David's PP's, EVERY SINGLE runner who hit the board was eventually a graded stakes winner but one. Birdstone's PP's look pretty damned good relative to this field. This field is TERRIBLE absent BB and Casino Drive and maybe Denis of Cork.

I agree with you. However, what is so much different between Birdstone and tale of ekati going into this race? or Royal assault and Anak Nakal?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I hope you realize I was kidding.

I see you mixing it up over at PA every so often. So, it wasn't entirely implausible.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I see you mixing it up over at PA every so often. So, it wasn't entirely implausible.

Yes it was.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yes it was.

YET, he's in this thread commenting on the comments of trips by others.

And, he's PMing with some dude that I clicked after his initial posting.

And he indulges the WARRANT doofus and Fischer.


More evidence?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

At least I don't watch the Bachelor.

Your loss.

Whaaah you're not posting how I want you to post.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

We all have our faults. At least I don't watch the Bachelor.

Not the Bachelor, the Bachelorette. And while her allure is waining, she's still pretty hot.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I agree with you. However, what is so much different between Birdstone and tale of ekati going into this race? or Royal assault and Anak Nakal?

From a discussion perspective, nothing. However, even though Birdstone was definitely a better beast than Tale of Ekati, I have no problem with anyone making a case for Tale of Ekati at 30-1- he's a G1 and G2 winner in NY and did finish a decent 4th in the Derby.

Royal Assault wasn't in the same zip code as Smarty Jones and Anak Nakal won't be either with Big Brown (although as Royal Assault did, a clunk up 3rd isn't crazy thinking- in fact I think that's exactly where I think he'll finish.)