Big Time Pedigree (Half to Indian Blessing!) - Page 4

jcs11204 · #61 06-19-2008, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

how would you have any idea in advance how he was going to run? only believe what you see and not trainerspeak or other forms of hype or misinformation.

well at 1-1, he is expected to run better then he did, correct ?

ArlJim78 · #62 06-19-2008, 09:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

well at 1-1, he is expected to run better then he did, correct ?

many like you hoped he would run better, and piled loads of dumb money on him. basing expectations of a top performance on the trainer, breeding, and workouts is not a good approach. you'll only find overbet hyped horses that will never win often enough to be profitable for you.
those factors are what everyone is looking at therefore you have no edge when you base opinions on them.

Danzig · #63 06-19-2008, 09:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

many like you hoped he would run better, and piled loads of dumb money on him. basing expectations of a top performance on the trainer, breeding, and workouts is not a good approach. you'll only find overbet hyped horses that will never win often enough to be profitable for you.
those factors are what everyone is looking at therefore you have no edge when you base opinions on them.

don't forget, he DID have an article on drf. no wonder he went off like he did, everyone read drf and thought he couldn't lose.

oops

jcs, you've asked for help with your handicapping. yet you're still going by pedigree. that alone won't tell you much.

this race was in cali, right? bob baffert had a speedster, based on his works? how does speed do on awt?

jcs11204 · #64 06-19-2008, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

many like you hoped he would run better, and piled loads of dumb money on him. basing expectations of a top performance on the trainer, breeding, and workouts is not a good approach. you'll only find overbet hyped horses that will never win often enough to be profitable for you.
those factors are what everyone is looking at therefore you have no edge when you base opinions on them.

i did not bet a cent on the race, i said if hes anywhere near the morning line... i did not bet a dime on that race

jcs11204 · #65 06-19-2008, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

don't forget, he DID have an article on drf. no wonder he went off like he did, everyone read drf and thought he couldn't lose.

oops

jcs, you've asked for help with your handicapping. yet you're still going by pedigree. that alone won't tell you much.

this race was in cali, right? bob baffert had a speedster, based on his works? how does speed do on awt?

I DID NOT BET... WHEN DID I SAY I BET THIS RACE ? I WAS INTRESTED TO WATCH, BUT NO BET

hoovesupsideyourhead · #66 06-19-2008, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmorioles

2nd: finished second next out at 3 to 5.
3rd: finished second next out at 3 to 1.
4th: won next out at 2 to 1.
5th: 4th next out at 10 to 1.
6th: 4th next out at 7 to 5.
7th: won next out at even money.
8th: won (on turf) next out at 17 to 1.
9th: won (on polytrack) next out at 7 to 1.
10th: 6th next out at 5 to 1.
11th: yet to return.

So, are you saying that a couple horses winning on another surface somehow indicates this was a key race? The horses that ran back on dirt pretty much sucked.

you bet ..4 next out winners and 2 seconds....

Danzig · #67 06-19-2008, 09:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

I DID NOT BET... WHEN DID I SAY I BET THIS RACE ? I WAS INTRESTED TO WATCH, BUT NO BET

easy, killer. when i saw you were so bummed, and knowing you bet, i assumed you did here.

cmorioles · #68 06-19-2008, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

you bet ..4 next out winners and 2 seconds....

Even big proponents of the key race theory would have a hard time backing that one. The horses on dirt underperformed.

Now, if you are advocating betting a horse off one poor dirt race first time on turf or polytrack merely because of who won, more power to you.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #69 06-19-2008, 09:22 PM

well first of all there was some good breeding in the race..now zaftig destroyed them.. but i knew that they, the others in the race had some tallent..im not bing a dick... this time

..but you show me a race where there are 4 next out winners and 2 seconds regardless of surface..and ill take that all day.as a key race......

parsixfarms · #70 06-19-2008, 09:25 PM

Whether we call them potential "key races" or not, don't we always have to evaluate the relative strengths of a particular race.

For example, today's third race at Belmont was about as ugly a $35,000 claiming race as you can get; I'd be inclined to throw everything out the next time these horses run.

By contrast, the second race on Belmont Stakes Day looked to be a pretty strong maiden heat. I'd be inclined to upgrade horses coming out of that race when they run back. And we have to make these judgments before the entire field runs back.

The Indomitable DrugS · #71 06-19-2008, 09:27 PM

The Sales Topper from Fasig-Tipton Feb debuts at Arlington this weekend going 4.5 furlongs for Harty.

Desert Party ($2.5 million buy) beat out Munnings ($1.7 million) and Mr. Mistoffelees ($1.5 million) for that honor.

By Street Cry out of a Tabasco Cat mare - 4.5f on polytrack doesn't seem like the type of situation you'd see a pedigree like that debut at.

jcs11204 · #72 06-19-2008, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

easy, killer. when i saw you were so bummed, and knowing you bet, i assumed you did here.

I WAS BUMMED because i am a fan of the sport... i liked the pedigree, i want candy ride to do good, and i thought this one would be stong.

ArlJim78 · #73 06-19-2008, 09:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Sales Topper from Fasig-Tipton Feb debuts at Arlington this weekend going 4.5 furlongs for Harty.

Desert Party ($2.5 million buy) beat out Munnings ($1.7 million) and Mr. Mistoffelees ($1.5 million) for that honor.

By Street Cry out of a Tabasco Cat mare - 4.5f on polytrack doesn't seem like the type of situation you'd see a pedigree like that debut at.

owner/trainer?

10 pnt move up · #74 06-19-2008, 10:15 PM

when there is no reason why a horse runs poorly I blame the rider...this horse is the goods ( :

if you did not bet against that horse today, and play HP seriously, then maybe one should consider playing a different game?

Reading the article closely I thought Bafferts comments were a bit telling, bringing up real quite and running longer.

10 pnt move up · #75 06-19-2008, 10:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jcs11204

I WAS BUMMED because i am a fan of the sport... i liked the pedigree, i want candy ride to do good, and i thought this one would be stong.

well a candy ride horse in the race ran very well, you got the best of both worlds, a horrid chalk and a candy ride that ran well.

parsixfarms · #76 06-19-2008, 10:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Reading the article closely I thought Bafferts comments were a bit telling, bringing up real quite and running longer.

Agreed, plus I'm never a big fan of firsters with blinkers on.

How much do you want to bet that his next race is at Saratoga - on a conventional dirt surface?

The Bid · #77 06-19-2008, 10:59 PM

Had these connections known the weight of JCS was applied they may have scratched. Another one burned up by your tout. Change your name to the cooler

miraja2 · #78 06-19-2008, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

By Street Cry out of a Tabasco Cat mare - 4.5f on polytrack doesn't seem like the type of situation you'd see a pedigree like that debut at.

True, and the second choice on the ML in that race is by Action This Day, and the third choice is out of a Strike the Gold mare. None of those pedigrees exactly scream 4.5f to me.
I haven't really looked at the Sunday card much yet, but at first glance that race seems tough.

10 pnt move up · #79 06-20-2008, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Agreed, plus I'm never a big fan of firsters with blinkers on.

How much do you want to bet that his next race is at Saratoga - on a conventional dirt surface?

I think its a bit unilikely unless baffert just feels the horse cant run on those tracks, the owners go to del mar all the time.

RolloTomasi · #80 06-20-2008, 12:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

True, and the second choice on the ML in that race is by Action This Day, and the third choice is out of a Strike the Gold mare. None of those pedigrees exactly scream 4.5f to me.
I haven't really looked at the Sunday card much yet, but at first glance that race seems tough.

Weren't both Street Cry and Tabasco Cat precocious 2yos? Street Cry couldn't have run further than 5.5f in his debut (which he won).