Who Will Be The Pace Setter In The Derby?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yep - and I wouldn't exactly say he dueled with Obligatory and was softened up bigtime.

The pace in the FOY figured to be much stronger and it was.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

That's the debate, souped up tracks/flattering numbers/speed biases. We know where Pletcher stands with his frank comments after the race.

i'm not saying it was souped up, but i have seen references to a front runner bias. i don't know if that's the case or not, it always seems disgruntled bettors like to place blame on things like that.
my question is, was there really a bias? and if so, (and i think QR is the real deal btw) what does that mean about his race, and the record?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Souped-up track does not necessarily equate to speed bias, and Gulfstream Park on Fla. Derby day was a chalk-fest, which makes the debate even more uncertain.

To me the bottom line with this Dunkirk vs. Quality Road stuff is whether or not as a handicapper you think Quality Road can do what he did in the FOY/Fla Derby at CD going 10 furlongs with some additional pace pressers to put away late in the race. Provided QR runs his race, he will be on the lead and/or close. Then you have to ask whether or not Dunkirk, or anyone else, can outrun him late to the wire.

My thoughts on that argument:

* Right now, the pace does not look too brutal. QR probably is on the lead or coasting just off it. He will likely sit his trip. I do, however, question if he might get a little bit weak late in the race. Though he finished-up in the Florida Derby, I don't think he finished-up super strong as to where no one could catch him late going another furlong.

* Dunkirk ran a big race, going wide at GP is never easy, closing at GP is never easy. But he had a fair chance to run by QR and didn't. I think, at 8-1, he's a big-time bet against when you add up all the variables against him. At this point, I Want Revenge is a more plausible horse to run down Quality Road late than Dunkirk and scary enough, they might not be that far off in price.

i thought i read his final fractions were very good? or i might be confusing his last with i want revenge. like drugs, i think these two are the top two.

and i agree with your last paragraph.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Papa Clem isn't naturally fast enough to make the lead without having to be too hard used.

well if QR isn't 100% or doesn't go , why can't he get out on a loose lead without having to be exerted?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

because there are still a few others likely to go who are naturally faster than him.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

because there are still a few others likely to go who are naturally faster than him.

fresian fire?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Using your theory on speed being brutal on synth tracks in this case specifically SA, weren't you be impressed by Papa Clem in the Robert Lewis when he almost wired the field, in that race was IWR and POTN.

That's a poor interpretation of the Robert Lewis.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by gales0678

fresian fire?

No

[gales0678]

ok then who will make him work / exert to get to the lead?

[DogsUp]

The debate between the two is stupid and irrational. You are coming up with countless hypotheticals without knowing all the information. However, it makes for good "chat board conversation,"

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's a poor interpretation of the Robert Lewis.

I was more or less addressing a thread where Drugs pointed out Well Armed couldn't hold a lead in a race when he ran on SA Pro ride as to what some feel is a closer friendly surface, but he did move up quite substantially I might add when he ran on Dubai dirt, that is why I posed the question as to what his thoughts were of Papa Clem and shouldn't this philosophy apply to this horse.

My point is even if this horse turns out to be a slug, if Pro ride is closer biased artificial turf. Shouldn't Papa Clem's race be upgraded?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i thought i read his final fractions were very good? or i might be confusing his last with i want revenge. like drugs, i think these two are the top two.

and i agree with your last paragraph.

You have to bold the entire sentence as it was in a different context. He didn't finish up in a way which, in my opinion, indicates he is impossible to run down when you consider the 10 furlong Derby in addition to the other factors at play.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm not saying it was souped up, but i have seen references to a front runner bias. i don't know if that's the case or not, it always seems disgruntled bettors like to place blame on things like that.
my question is, was there really a bias? and if so, (and i think QR is the real deal btw) what does that mean about his race, and the record?

I agree, I'm in the corner he is more than likely the real deal. My question was really aimed at trying to determine what the internal fractions of the race would have been had the track been set up to run as it was on a normal day.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

I was more or less addressing a thread where Drugs pointed out Well Armed couldn't hold a lead in a race when he ran on SA Pro ride as to what some feel is a closer friendly surface, but he did move up quite substantially I might add when he ran on Dubai dirt, that is why I posed the question as to what his thoughts were of Papa Clem and shouldn't this philosophy apply to this horse.

My point is even if this horse turns out to be a slug, if Pro ride is closer biased artificial turf. Shouldn't Papa Clem's race be upgraded?

He's the chart for the race. I don't think that PC's effort should be upgraded. The race clearly favored on the pace horses. And, the fact that the majority of them stuck around is good evidence that the pace was slow (for those that choose to look at it from that perspective).

Either way, POTN ran huge.

And, maybe, IWR's effort wasn't that bad, given the circumstances, as he was the only one to make any kind of move other than the winner

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He's the chart for the race. I don't think that PC's effort should be upgraded. The race clearly favored on the pace horses. And, the fact that the majority of them stuck around is good evidence that the pace was slow (for those that choose to look at it from that perspective).

Either way, POTN ran huge.

I know... we are in agreement that pro ride should be termed a fair surface. I read your posts...

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by gales0678

ok then who will make him work / exert to get to the lead?

Regal Ransom?

--Dunbar

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He's the chart for the race. I don't think that PC's effort should be upgraded.

Your chart indicated PC & IWR having almost identical trips, visually I was more impressed by PC's race rather than POTN, anyone other than Gomez riding and I probably wouldn't say so. Typical Gomez to get up, needless to say I think they both ran good races.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by CSC

Your chart indicated PC & IWR having almost identical trips, visually I was more impressed by PC's race rather than POTN, anyone other than Gomez riding and I probably wouldn't say so. Typical Gomez to get up, needless to say I think they both ran good races.

I didn't think that to be the case: the chart clearly shows IWR to have run the better race -- or, at least, a distinctive race.

I took a look at the race to see why you thought PC's race was 'visually' impressive. I found IWR 1 path wider on each turn and drifting significantly in the lane (not Talamo's best effort). Of course, POLY experts will tell you that saving ground is not significant on that surface.

But, it's increasing become LESS about what I see in the race and MORE about what the charts indicate. And, when Trakus becomes commonplace (and we have more calls in addition to more accurate ones) then I probably won't be watching many replays at all. 'Visually' impressive trips can only get me so far as most horses are really not much better than their setup on a given day.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I didn't think that to be the case: the chart clearly shows IWR to have run the better race -- or, at least, a distinctive race.

I took a look at the race to see why you thought PC's race was 'visually' impressive. I found IWR 1 path wider on each turn and drifting significantly in the lane (not Talamo's best effort). Of course, POLY experts will tell you that saving ground is not significant on that surface.

But, it's increasing become LESS about what I see in the race and MORE about what the charts indicate. And, when Trakus becomes commonplace (and we have more calls in addition to more accurate ones) then I probably won't be watching many replays at all. 'Visually' impressive trips can only get me so far as most horses are really not much better than their setup on a given day.

Discussing race dynamic is precarious but I thought PC got pressed by IWR on the turn, it looked like IWR was going by with big MO, usually a horse that makes that type of move will end up winning a race, however PC was able to re-rally. Regardless whether IWR is not as good on Synth than dirt, I liked that fight in PC, in addition POTN was so deep in the track I'm not sure PC could see him out there. This is all debatable stuff but one thing I do like about Papa Clem is he has shown he has a heart.

[Bobby Fischer]

we should be discussing race dynamics a lot more than we do.

An alternative (and not necessarily correct) way to view the Robert Lewis , Is that all the horses who quit(markS , Oilman, shafted, brother keith, charliesmoment) simply SUCKED, and that they had very little to do with setup whatsover.