134th Preakness Field Close to Set

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by nomad

The derby winner should not be discounted. Just what he did on the off track, beating the best 3yos in the country by 7 lengths, should make him the post time favorite, but he won't be. All the experts will think it was a fluke, But this is no fluke. This is one talented horse.

I'm leaning more toward this way.Instead of drawing a line through the Derby win I'm drawing a line through the previous eight races.

[Kasept]

FYI... Have to get my Preakness analysis in today (!?!?), and based on communication I received last night, it looks like TAKE THE POINTS is running... Not 100% confirmed, but the info likely comes from the Pimlico racing office.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

This is from last Wednesday. It makes sense to go and I'll give him a long look, but I question the sudden change.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/103370.html

Hull points to Woody Stephens

Hull, who remained undefeated with his impressive four-length victory in last Saturday's Grade 3 Derby Trial, will most likely skip the Preakness Stakes and be pointed to the Grade 2, $250,000 Woody Stephens, a seven-furlong race at Belmont Park on June 6.

"The Woody Stephens would probably be the most logical spot," trainer Dale Romans said Wednesday. "He's never had a race around two turns. Coming back in three weeks against the best horses in the country, I just don't know that we want to push him that much."

Romans said the major goal for Hull is the Grade 1 King's Bishop at Saratoga on Aug. 29. Hull is owned by a partnership that includes Team Valor International, Gary Barber, and Heiligbrodt Racing.

Hull, a son of Holy Bull, improved to 3 for 3 with his victory in the Derby Trial, in which he covered 7 1/2 furlongs in 1:30.21. His three wins have come by a combined 16 lengths. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 92 for the Derby Trial.

Which ones are those?

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I think Mine That Bird will repeat simply because everyone is dismissing him again. That and this 3 year old crop is suspect not on ability, but desire to win.

I'm starting to think that also. In the form on Derby day on that page that they analyze the horses it said something like

Mine that Bird : with all the top horses in this race, the bottom feeders are really weak, like this one, no chance

and the other guy wrote : he'll most likely make someone happy as he's the favorite to finish last..

then of course what was said on this site..

Pretty much think if all this dissing keeps up he's a shoe in for the win..

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I'm leaning more toward this way.Instead of drawing a line through the Derby win I'm drawing a line through the previous eight races.

including his four wins?

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

including his four wins?

just think how much more this horse would have looked better in those 4 races if a former NYRA jockey wasn't riding this horse last year in CAD

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

"Flying Private, the last-place finisher in the Derby, will run back in the Preakness, trainer D. Wayne Lukas told Pimlico officials Tuesday.

"We didn't get what we expected to get in the Derby," said Lukas, a five-time winner of the Preakness."

lol

understatement of the year.

[slotdirt]

They had to at least have expected 18th.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

including his four wins?

Yes including his four wins because none of what he did prior to Saturday even remotely comes close to what I saw him do in the Derby. He got an amazingly clean trip on the best part of the racetrack but STILL there was nothing in those prior races to indicate he could do what he did even under the best circumstances.

[CSC]

This would have sounded crazy 5 days ago, but if Mine That Bird is around 10-1 in the Preakness, I think I'll play a POTN/MTB exacta box, and a sizable win/place bet on MTB. The more I look at the derby, the more I think it may not have been a fluke.

[slotdirt]

I think the horse is a cinch for third in the Preakness.

[Sightseek]

This year's Kentucky Derby was like going through the 7 stages of grief:

1. shock & denial - self explanitory
2. pain & guilt - subjecting yourself to some of the posts here, that is pain!
3. anger & bargaining - blame it on Beyer!
4. depression, relection, lonliness - we all now know more about some people than we should
5. the upward turn - no one has started a new Derby thread in hours!
6. reconstruction & working through - onto the Preakness!
7. acceptance & hope - now we have people saying it wasn't a fluke and Mine That Bird is going to be a good horse dammit!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

This year's Kentucky Derby was like going through the 7 stages of grief:

1. shock & denial - self explanitory
2. pain & guilt - subjecting yourself to some of the posts here, that is pain!
3. anger & bargaining - blame it on Beyer!
4. depression, relection, lonliness - we all now know more about some people than we should
5. the upward turn - no one has started a new Derby thread in hours!
6. reconstruction & working through - onto the Preakness!
7. acceptance & hope - now we have people saying it wasn't a fluke and Mine That Bird is going to be a good horse dammit!

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

This would have sounded crazy 5 days ago, but if Mine That Bird is around 10-1 in the Preakness, I think I'll play a POTN/MTB exacta box, and a sizable win/place bet on MTB. The more I look at the derby, the more I think it may not have been a fluke.

fluke - a stroke of luck
good fortune, good luck
fortune, luck - an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that leads to a favorable outcome;

[CSC]

POTN and MTB ran the best races in the derby in my opinion, there will have to be a new shooter come in to upset these 2. PC and MM were okay I guess, they are what they are....

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

fluke - a stroke of luck
good fortune, good luck
fortune, luck - an unknown and unpredictable phenomenon that leads to a favorable outcome;

I'm counting on that opinion...otherwise there is no rhyme or reason taking MTB at anything less than 8-1.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

just think how much more this horse would have looked better in those 4 races if a former NYRA jockey wasn't riding this horse last year in CAD

Marty,

I'm sorry... Not trying to be flippant or insulting, but please try to restructure this into a comprehensible sentence. I've read it 8 times and have yet to decipher its' intent. I'm confident it includes our neighbor to the North ('CAD'); Chantel Sutherland ('former NYRA jockey') and Mine That Bird ('this horse' x 2).

Other than that, I'm stymied.

[gales0678]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Marty,

I'm sorry... Not trying to be flippant or insulting, but please try to restructure this into a comprehensible sentence. I've read it 8 times and have yet to decipher its' intent. I'm confident it includes our neighbor to the North ('CAD'); Chantel Sutherland ('former NYRA jockey') and Mine That Bird ('this horse' x 2).

Other than that, I'm stymied.

steve - the wording is bad , i tried to edit it 1x and botched it again, i am paranoid about using the edit button too much on one post because of comments from the peanut gallery

what i'm trying to say to lori is this - chantal rode the horse last year in CAD , maybe if a better jockey was on MTB in the WO races he would have even won by more in those races and thus looked better in the form

she a great looking gal , no question about it , but there was a reason that she had to move back to CAD no? was she getting a lot of business down here? there were some pretty crazy rides by her down here at NYRA , i think even some people pointed it out on this board. Did i watch all the races at Wo for MTB no , i can only specualte that maybe she won races because the horse was simply the best , but , maybe another jock would have moved MTB up even more

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

I'm counting on that opinion...otherwise there is no rhyme or reason taking MTB at anything less than 8-1.

it's not an opinion, it's a definition of the word fluke-which is what describes saturday to a tee. no matter how much people want to go back and try to find rhyme or reason for what he did....there is no explanation other than to say it's unexplainable.

no one had that horse. not one handicapper in the media gave this horse anything other than 'no chance'.
now, if you want to think his performance is the start of a great thing, i can't argue with that. maybe he's an emerging three year old. or maybe he's not. i'm thinking at this point he's not. we shall see.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by gales0678

what i'm trying to say to lori is this - chantal rode the horse last year in CAD , maybe if a better jockey was on MTB in the WO races he would have even won by more in those races and thus looked better in the form

she a great looking gal , no question about it , but there was a reason that she had to move back to CAD no? was she getting a lot of business down here? there were some pretty crazy rides by her down here at NYRA , i think even some people pointed it out on this board. Did i watch all the races at Wo for MTB no , i can only specualte that maybe she won races because the horse was simply the best , but , maybe another jock would have moved MTB up even more

There are worse riders, but overall, she's a bit of hazard out there. She rode the horse OK at Woodbine. Her ride in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile though was dreadful. The kid in New Mexico rode him lousy too and further darkened any form/potential anyone could possibly have uncovered as a result. He looked like a horse that hadn't progressed a step from 2 to 3.

Had any of us covering the race bothered to ask Borel or Woolley their strategy beforehand, it might have come out that they were changing their approach with him by planning to take back and come with one run. And even knowing that there was still little to go on to bet him as anything more than a super/high five filler.

They sought out Borel as his jock for a reason, as Woolley and Calvin told ATR this week. And I talked extensively with Jerry Hissam, Borel's agent, Monday, and he had some interesting background to add as well. As Baffert said, they had a plan and they got the racetrack and path they needed to execute it and the horse was ready and willing. Amazing really.