DERBY NEWS (4/25): Eskendereya out; Lookin at Lucky new fave..

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Line of David- who if the Arkansas Derby was another 10 feet would have been 3rd and not even be in the Derby.

This assessment of the AD is wrong. Welcome to the pools.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I was really looking forward to betting him at 2-1. That would have been a huge overlay in my opinion....

I am particularly sad as I think this horse may have been something special and now we may never know.

Paul

Ditto. However I don't think it makes the race wide open, it just drops the odds on L@L and Sid'sCandy.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Distance? How about the field being terrible and being far from the least likely winner on paper?

Hey if they wanna run her,run her and u wanna bet her,bet her

I dont mind all the women who make the $2 bets and u putting your money on her,it just brings her odds down and other ones up.

I am just saying that what I keep hearing. We think she will like the longer distance,the distance is perfect we just gotta see how she works out

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Hey if they wanna run her,run her and u wanna bet her,bet her

I dont mind all the women who make the $2 bets and u putting your money on her,it just brings her odds down and other ones up.

I am just saying that what I keep hearing. We think she will like the longer distance,the distance is perfect we just gotta see how she works out

She's just as fast as most of the field.

Running against males isn't going to make Devil May Care run any slower. The only thing that might stop her is traffic problems, but every horse in the field will have to deal with that.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Were you really that impressed with her Bonnie Miss that you thought Derby at that point?

she's been as impressive as just about any colt who is headed to churchill saturday. yes, she had two bad efforts after the frizette, both easily tossed. she apparently hated the synthetic in the juvie, and of course had a bad time at the gate at the fairgrounds. you say she 'only won the bonnie miss', but she beat two nice horses in there, amen hallelujah is nothing to sneer at. she's got the breeding, she's got the speed-i can think of many horses in the upcoming race who i think have a better shot than her at being closer to last than to first. any three year old who has an impressive race in the spring is automatically a oaks/derby thought. if i were them, with eskendereya out, i'd choose saturday over friday.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

She's just as fast as most of the field.

Running against males isn't going to make Devil May Care run any slower. The only thing that might stop her is traffic problems, but every horse in the field will have to deal with that.

I don't understand why people can't grasp this.

[pweizer]

Putting the Derby aside, I don't think she can beat Blind Luck in the Oaks.

Paul

[Kasept]

With ESKENDEREYA out of the Derby lineup, Churchill ML oddsmaker Mike Battaglia says LOOKIN AT LUCKY will be made the 'solid favorite' Wednesday at an estimated 3-1. Battaglia believes he will have SIDNEY'S CANDY as about a 6-1 second choice, and AWESOME ACT the 8-1 third choice.

Battaglia added he believes that should DEVIL MAY CARE run in the Derby, she would go off as no worse than 6th choice, and likely as the shortest price of the Pletcher runners...

[NTamm1215]

HRTV just reported that Rule is on the fence as well...

NT

[3kings]

Originally Posted by Kasept

With ESKENDEREYA out of the Derby lineup, Churchill ML oddsmaker Mike Battaglia says LOOKIN AT LUCKY will be made the 'solid favorite' Wednesday at an estimated 3-1. Battaglia believes he will have SIDNEY'S CANDY as about a 6-1 second choice, and AWESOME ACT the 8-1 third choice.

Interesting but you will not get 6-1 on Sidney's Candy on Sat.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

HRTV just reported that Rule is on the fence as well...

More out than in actually..

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by Danzig

she's been as impressive as just about any colt who is headed to churchill saturday. yes, she had two bad efforts after the frizette, both easily tossed. she apparently hated the synthetic in the juvie, and of course had a bad time at the gate at the fairgrounds. you say she 'only won the bonnie miss', but she beat two nice horses in there, amen hallelujah is nothing to sneer at. she's got the breeding, she's got the speed-i can think of many horses in the upcoming race who i think have a better shot than her at being closer to last than to first. any three year old who has an impressive race in the spring is automatically a oaks/derby thought. if i were them, with eskendereya out, i'd choose saturday over friday.

i guess im in the minority, but i dont see how she has been as impressive as just about any colt. shes won once going two turns, against amen hallelujah, who looked like she has some distance concerns after the bonnie miss. amen hallelujah is a nice filly, but a mile seems like her ceiling.

shes a very nice filly and i dont think shes going to be last at all. she will probably be among the top ten finishers. but her performances on track thus far have not been that impressive to consider her a legit threat.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

i guess im in the minority, but i dont see how she has been as impressive as just about any colt. shes won once going two turns, against amen hallelujah, who looked like she has some distance concerns after the bonnie miss. amen hallelujah is a nice filly, but a mile seems like her ceiling.

shes a very nice filly and i dont think shes going to be last at all. she will probably be among the top ten finishers. but her performances on track thus far have not been that impressive to consider her a legit threat.

i think you could say that about any probable starter at this point.

[Gaining Ground]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think you could say that about any probable starter at this point.

thats not true. just because the favorite is out doesnt mean anyone can win now.

i like devil may care a lot. and she can beat males. but shes run twice this year and did no running at all the first time. so she will be coming into the derby running one real race this year, against a horse with distance challenges, with 6 weeks in between starts.

not the kind of bet i want to make at what will sure be underlaid odds compared to her actual chance of winning.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

she's been as impressive as just about any colt who is headed to churchill saturday. yes, she had two bad efforts after the frizette, both easily tossed. she apparently hated the synthetic in the juvie, and of course had a bad time at the gate at the fairgrounds. you say she 'only won the bonnie miss', but she beat two nice horses in there, amen hallelujah is nothing to sneer at. she's got the breeding, she's got the speed-i can think of many horses in the upcoming race who i think have a better shot than her at being closer to last than to first. any three year old who has an impressive race in the spring is automatically a oaks/derby thought. if i were them, with eskendereya out, i'd choose saturday over friday.

I definitely toss the BC out because of the Poly; I have no idea what happened at the FG. I didn't realize she had gate issues - that just seemed like a bad race for her. Look, if they run her, I'm going to root for her ( or Ice Box); I hope I'm proven wrong. At least she's coming into her next race in good form because her last workout seems like it was perfect.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So I come back to my original question: who is significantly better than her? If she's so overmatched, you should be able to name at least 10 horses that are significantly better than her. I can think of maybe two.

And why aren't you railing against Stately Victor, Discreetly Mine and Dean's Kitten running? Why is Devil May Care singled out as a stupid entrant?

I don't think those horses belong, but I'm not going to rail against them being there because I'm not a fan of those horses. They have the earnings, they have the right to be there even if I think they're overmatched. I like Devil May Care - that's why I would prefer to see her run where she has a chance to win. Obviously we disagree; we only have to wait a week to see who's right.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

thats not true. just because the favorite is out doesnt mean anyone can win now.

i like devil may care a lot. and she can beat males. but shes run twice this year and did no running at all the first time. so she will be coming into the derby running one real race this year, against a horse with distance challenges, with 6 weeks in between starts.

not the kind of bet i want to make at what will sure be underlaid odds compared to her actual chance of winning.

Don't forget that she ran as fast as Icebox did in the Fla. Derby.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Betsy

I don't think those horses belong, but I'm not going to rail against them being there because I'm not a fan of those horses. They have the earnings, they have the right to be there even if I think they're overmatched. I like Devil May Care - that's why I would prefer to see her run where she has a chance to win. Obviously we disagree; we only have to wait a week to see who's right.

It's easier to be right when you pick one horse out of 20 to not win. I say Conveyance won't win and doesn't belong.

[onebadbeast]

all in on the 8 hole.........

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Gaining Ground

thats not true. just because the favorite is out doesnt mean anyone can win now.

i like devil may care a lot. and she can beat males. but shes run twice this year and did no running at all the first time. so she will be coming into the derby running one real race this year, against a horse with distance challenges, with 6 weeks in between starts.

not the kind of bet i want to make at what will sure be underlaid odds compared to her actual chance of winning.

i don't feel comfortable at this point saying any horse has a better chance than any other. and i do feel at this point that just about any horse can win. and when i say i don't include stately victor as one of those, i think back to last year. as for lack of racing, ice box is one i like-and he hasn't run in the same span as devil may care.