136th Kentucky Derby (PP's) - Page 4

Patrick333 · #61 04-28-2010, 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

With Sidney's past problems stumbling at the gate, the 20 spot actualy ensures he doesn't get sandwiched and left without any hope to recover.
He still has got a lot of work to do, but he has enough tactical speed where I think he can overcome the wide post.
Lookin at Lucky...I have my doubts.

I agree with you. If he can handle an off-track I think he'll do fine.

MaTH716 · #62 04-28-2010, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

With Sidney's past problems stumbling at the gate, the 20 spot actualy ensures he doesn't get sandwiched and left without any hope to recover.
He still has got a lot of work to do, but he has enough tactical speed where I think he can overcome the wide post.
Lookin at Lucky...I have my doubts.

You know everone seems to be talking about Sidney's Candys tactical speed and maybe his ability to rate. But he has been first at every call so far this year. Maybe he can, but it seems like alot to ask for by him breaking from the 20 hole. Not to mention Talamo not panicing if things don't go his way early. I'm not sure he has that kind of Big Brown move in him.

ateamstupid · #63 04-28-2010, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

You know everone seems to be talking about Sidney's Candys tactical speed and maybe his ability to rate. But he has been first at every call so far this year. Maybe he can, but it seems like alot to ask for by him breaking from the 20 hole. Not to mention Talamo not panicing if things don't go his way early. I'm not sure he has that kind of Big Brown move in him.

He wasn't going to win this race on the lead. Maybe he can rate, maybe he can't, but he had no shot to wire the field IMO, and this pretty much ensures that Talamo won't try to.

mclem0822 · #64 04-28-2010, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

You know everone seems to be talking about Sidney's Candys tactical speed and maybe his ability to rate. But he has been first at every call so far this year. Maybe he can, but it seems like alot to ask for by him breaking from the 20 hole. Not to mention Talamo not panicing if things don't go his way early. I'm not sure he has that kind of Big Brown move in him.

He may or may not be able to settle for Joe, but i know this breaking from the 20 hole, he cannot afford that stumble like he had in the SA Derby, he nearly went to his nose.

ninetoone · #65 04-28-2010, 01:17 PM

You have to add up the odds of him rating successfully to what you think his true odds should be of winning...this adds up to "underlay" in my book...I'll have to take a pass.

lemoncrush · #66 04-28-2010, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

You know everone seems to be talking about Sidney's Candys tactical speed and maybe his ability to rate. But he has been first at every call so far this year. Maybe he can, but it seems like alot to ask for by him breaking from the 20 hole. Not to mention Talamo not panicing if things don't go his way early. I'm not sure he has that kind of Big Brown move in him.

I think Big Brown could have won that derby from any post position, but without Eskenderya, there isn't anyone good enough in Saturday's field to overcome a bad break or get shuffled too far back early.
I'm not worried much about Talamo. He's run in plenty of big races before.
My biggest worry with Sidney is the possibility of running on an off track for the first time.

geeker2 · #67 04-28-2010, 01:36 PM

Ice Box could not have drawn better...Andy Beyer will be all over him.

lemoncrush · #68 04-28-2010, 01:41 PM

A couple of other thoughts:

Does Borel have Super Saver (4) follow Line of David (5) and sit off him as long as he can, or will be be battling on the lead with he and Conveyance, among others?

Can Lezcano manage a nice groundsaving trip with IceBox, or will he be too far back to navigate a big late move?

Does Homeboy Kris take the ambulance route from post 19, aka..flashy bull?

philcski · #69 04-28-2010, 01:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I think Big Brown could have won that derby from any post position, but without Eskenderya, there isn't anyone good enough in Saturday's field to overcome a bad break or get shuffled too far back early.
I'm not worried much about Talamo. He's run in plenty of big races before.
My biggest worry with Sidney is the possibility of running on an off track for the first time.

First time on dirt, period. I've always been anti- any horse that had never started on dirt, but Sidney's has really impressed me throughout his career and I have no worries that he will run fine on dirt. Whether that's good enough, who knows.

For what it's worth... he worked REALLY well in the slop on Saturday morning. I was very impressed from what I saw.

tector · #70 04-28-2010, 01:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

First time on dirt, period. I've always been anti- any horse that had never started on dirt, but Sidney's has really impressed me throughout his career and I have no worries that he will run fine on dirt. Whether that's good enough, who knows.

For what it's worth... he worked REALLY well in the slop on Saturday morning. I was very impressed from what I saw.

I think he is better than an even money proposition to move up on dirt--but it would be nice to know.

Antitrust32 · #71 04-28-2010, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't know that Sidney's Candy's draw is as problematic as Lookin at Lucky's. The 20-hole may force him to let Line of David and Conveyance go and sit off third/fourth, which was his only chance to win anyway.

Yeah, I dont think 20 hurts Sidney's Candy all that much. He has enough natural speed to be okay.. he might be 5 wide but sometimes 5 wide and clear isnt the worst place to be in the derby.

LaL is screwed.

MisterB · #72 04-28-2010, 02:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Most horseplayers and hardcore fans are at the track or the OTB anyway.

Guess you don't know the facts to good.

CSC · #73 04-28-2010, 02:09 PM

I wouldn't have taken SC or LAL so the post position is a bonus if you are standing against these 2. They are not the dominant favorites as were Big Brown or Smarty Jones IMO. There is great value in this race, if some horses can adjust their styles to the expected hot pace. Last year I don't think anyone of us would have expected Mine The Bird to come from dead last to win it by 6, if a horse can adjust and relax off the leaders they might be the one's, I'm not crazy about Ice Box either, just not comfortable he can repeat his Florida Derby at much lower odds.

ateamstupid · #74 04-28-2010, 02:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I wouldn't have taken SC or LAL so the post position is a bonus if you are standing against these 2. They are not the dominant favorites as were Big Brown or Smarty Jones IMO. There is great value in this race, if some horses can adjust their styles to the expected hot pace. Last year I don't think anyone of us would have expected Mine The Bird to come from dead last to win it by 6, if a horse can adjust and relax off the leaders they might be the one's, I'm not crazy about Ice Box either, just not comfortable he can repeat his Florida Derby at much lower odds.

You heard it here first. 17 out of 20 horses are good bets because of "Mine The Bird."

CSC · #75 04-28-2010, 02:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You heard it here first. 17 out of 20 horses are good bets because of "Mine The Bird."

Or perhaps because there is no standout superior horse, if there is I haven't seen it yet.

johnny pinwheel · #76 04-28-2010, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yep. Nothing in that explanation to complain about.

Back in line, drones!

no woodford for you!!!

GPK · #77 04-28-2010, 02:54 PM

I have watched exactly zero prep races this year, so admittedly I have no clue, nor opinion on this years Derby. That being said, Talamo has never met a front end he didn't like, so it will be interesting to see what he does from the far outside.

Personally, I will be rooting for Ice Box. I like Zito and obviously would love to see Lezcano get a Derby win.

pweizer · #78 04-28-2010, 03:08 PM

I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul

randallscott35 · #79 04-28-2010, 03:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul

I would agree if the pedigree didn't scream Green to me.

ninetoone · #80 04-28-2010, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pweizer

I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul

agree...and could totally see Rosario bringing home a bomb. Still kicking myself for not covering him in the BC Sprint.