What % Chance Of SS Winning The Triple? - Page 4

slotdirt · #61 05-06-2010, 10:30 AM

I don't completely disagree with you - I think he's by far the most logical winner next weekend in Baltimore. That being said, I don't think either of his last two races were exactly something to write home about, even factoring in that one of those races ended up with him winning the Derby. Just saying I can't blame anybody who is going to want to take a stab at beating him in the Preakness.

randallscott35 · #62 05-06-2010, 10:37 AM

I'm moving my number up to 25%. EOM.

Travis Stone · #63 05-06-2010, 10:52 AM

I put his chances of winning next Saturday at 40%.... and not knowing how the Belmont field will look, figure he's 25-30% in there.... 10-12% overall.

I don't see how the Preakness field is shaping-up to be any more difficult than the Derby field. He's only run three times this year, so he's relatively fresh considering, and I think he's shown he's immune to insane pace scenarios... he can rate close, or a bit farther off.

the_fat_man · #64 05-06-2010, 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

What? So Super Saver's Ark Derby and Ky Derby were not much better than his Tampa Derby? I couldn't possibly agree with that.

The Tampa Derby proved to be what many thought it was. It was a trio of average horses slugging it out down the stretch with one decent horse who needed a race. He moved forward in the Ark Derby then even more so in the Ky Derby.

I'm not saying Super Saver is some rising star sent to rescue thoroughbred racing from anonymity and there are going to be plenty of knocks on him in Baltimore, but I think it's pretty clear that he's developing and I think the quick comeback may actually serve him well.

NT

Come on, Nick. You can do better than that. He got the best of it in the TBD and hung like a rat in the Ark Derby. Then he gets just about the best possible setup in the Derby. He may win the Preakness but he's not doing it without the best trip in the race. Chalk that needs the best trip is not exactly the best way to make money.

NTamm1215 · #65 05-06-2010, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Come on, Nick. You can do better than that. He got the best of it in the TBD and hung like a rat in the Ark Derby. Then he gets just about the best possible setup in the Derby. He may win the Preakness but he's not doing it without the best trip in the race. Chalk that needs the best trip is not exactly the best way to make money.

I can't dispute anything that you said, in fact, you illustrated exactly why I didn't like him in the Derby.

The thing that I feel like I've realized is that this is a crop of 3YOs replete with horses who can't win unless a lot (if not everything) goes their way. The only horse who ran a very good race against the race flow in a prep was Rule. Unfortunately, he's off the reservation.

NT

Indian Charlie · #66 05-06-2010, 11:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

You are resting your hopes on Schoolyard Dreams? Tampa was months ago, new ballgame now.

Not at all man.

Just pointing out that one mediocre horse was pretty much on even terms with SS, and then came back and got his ass kicked badly.

In fact, in the Wood, the winner might never run again and the third place horse came back lame in his next start.

I think the Wood exposed the TBD race as being even weaker than everyone originally thought.

randallscott35 · #67 05-06-2010, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Not at all man.

Just pointing out that one mediocre horse was pretty much on even terms with SS, and then came back and got his ass kicked badly.

In fact, in the Wood, the winner might never run again and the third place horse came back lame in his next start.

I think the Wood exposed the TBD race as being even weaker than everyone originally thought.

Or Esken's performance was overrated?

CSC · #68 05-06-2010, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I put his chances of winning next Saturday at 40%.... and not knowing how the Belmont field will look, figure he's 25-30% in there.... 10-12% overall.

I don't see how the Preakness field is shaping-up to be any more difficult than the Derby field. He's only run three times this year, so he's relatively fresh considering, and I think he's shown he's immune to insane pace scenarios... he can rate close, or a bit farther off.

I don't like him at all and at his projected odds he would be overbet, this even considering he was probably the most underlaid horse in the Derby, frankly I don't like any from the Derby race to come out and be a good bet. If Dublin got a new rider and trainer he might be more attractive, thus I am going to the new shooters list, and right at the top of that list is Hurricane Ike, he's improving at the right time and he's got an extra week to get ready for this. To me his 101 is alot more legitimate than the 104 that SS got in the Derby. I'll make my bed with Hurricane Ike in the Preakness.

randallscott35 · #69 05-06-2010, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I don't like him at all and at his projected odds he would be overbet, this even considering he was probably the most underlaid horse in the Derby, frankly I don't like any from the Derby race to come out and be a good bet. If Dublin got a new rider and trainer he might be more attractive, thus I am going to the new shooters list, and right at the top of that list is Hurricane Ike, he's improving at the right time and he's got an extra week to get ready for this. To me his 101 is alot more legitimate than the 104 that SS got in the Derby. I'll make my bed with Hurricane Ike in the Preakness.

No thanks at 9.5 furlongs. HI is not my kind of horse at all.

CSC · #70 05-06-2010, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

No thanks at 9.5 furlongs. HI is not my kind of horse at all.

That's the 10K question, but why not? He looked like he was galloping out great in the derby trial, I'm more concerned that the last time a derby trial winner ran well in the Preak it was in the 90's with Alydeed.

Indian Charlie · #71 05-06-2010, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Or Esken's performance was overrated?

His performances, while still the most impressive in this crop, have yeah, been overrated. At least to me anyways.

Eskendreya aside, Schoolyard Dreams still lost to Jackson Bend AND Awesome Act!

The Wood has made somewhat of a resurgence in the past decade as a good Derby prep, but man, 2010 was dreadful.

cakes44 · #72 05-06-2010, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

That's the 10K question, but why not? He looked like he was galloping out great in the derby trial, I'm more concerned that the last time a derby trial winner ran well in the Preak it was in the 90's with Alydeed.

Macho Again

CSC · #73 05-06-2010, 12:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Macho Again

There are no Big Brown's this Preakness.

2Hot4TV · #74 05-06-2010, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

Maybe it's all the sex on the beach (that's distracting you)... not sure but come on... over a year later. Can't we get his name right?

I never said I was smart and old age has taken it's toll.

Oaklawnfan · #75 05-06-2010, 09:20 PM

I would think Calvin might have a better shot than his horse does. I can see a KD, Preakness double, but the Crown is gonna be a reach. He is riding horse named Readys Rocket in the first on Saturday at Churchill. Should be a super value on his first return from a long layoff. Not that I'm sayin. I'm just sayin.

randallscott35 · #76 05-07-2010, 04:31 PM

Greek up for SS....opened at 7.25-1 and now 6.85-1.

Dunbar · #77 05-08-2010, 09:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It's very simple......you multiply his chances of winning each race ( and also have to figure in whatever realistic chance he has of not running for whatever reason ). 30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 10% ( .1 ) as an injury factor is relatively fair....though 40% for the Belmont may be a little high.

10% is a realistic number.

Right idea, but you meant "30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 90% ( .9 )" (multiplying by the chance he runs, not the chance he's injured).

Quote:

Originally Posted by robfla

According to Bodog:

Will Super Saver win the 2010 Preakness Stakes

Yes +240
No -300

Will Super Saver Win The 2010 Triple Crown

All three Triple Crown Races must be run for action. Super Saver must win Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes for "Yes" to be graded the winner.

Yes +475

No -700

5Dimes has

Yes TC +650
No TC -1175

So, either the "NO -700" is generous at Bodog or the "YES +650" is generous at 5Dimes; OR the real odds are about +675.

I haven't gone over the Preakness PP's enough to venture an opinion on fair odds for that race or the TC, but I'm guessing it's the -700 for the "NO TC" at BoDog that's generous.

--Dunbar

2Hot4TV · #78 05-09-2010, 02:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

What say you of his chances?

Let's do the math, Slim x none =

blackthroatedwind · #79 05-09-2010, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Right idea, but you meant "30% ( .3 ) x 40% ( .4 ) x 90% ( .9 )" (multiplying by the chance he runs, not the chance he's injured).

Of course.

Right final result....brain fart in typing it.

philcski · #80 05-09-2010, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Oaklawnfan

I would think Calvin might have a better shot than his horse does. I can see a KD, Preakness double, but the Crown is gonna be a reach. He is riding horse named Readys Rocket in the first on Saturday at Churchill. Should be a super value on his first return from a long layoff. Not that I'm sayin. I'm just sayin.

Congrats on a nice return for Ready's Rocket. Just keeps on churning out wins at CD.