3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

mumble, mumble, mumble - babble babble babble - blah, blah

FTFY.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

its hard not to be abrasive here...especially the crap that qualifies for betting knowledge....then again some one has to stir the pot. then you talk about "thinking outside the lines"....theres not many here besides me that do that....this is bandwagon central....thats part of the reason i'm abrasive(i don't follow the lemmings). how many times have you seen me say...."this horse can't lose"...or the classic....."the rest are running for second". this is horse racing, there is no such thing as "superman" or "santa claus". almost every horse can and will lose at some point. i'll give credit where its due though....hes absolutely right you can't bet uncle mo at under 10-1....but somehow he gives the horse an almost 20% chance of winning...makes perfect sense in the derby trail world.....i just have trouble reading and digesting the hype. people are right this crap is useful....it builds confidence......lol. that horse probably has a 20% chance of missing the top 4....so hes right there too. i'm not always right but i am alot and i have the balls to give a non-standard opinion. people just hate that.....you think i don't know i'm a pain in the ass too.....lol. i try to make people think for themselves which is the key to success when you are gambling on anything!!!!!! you can be a "fan" all you want and you'll lose all the time too. i've been reading here since the big brown is the best dilemma of 2008....lol

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

FTFY.

Sharp post!

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

then you talk about "thinking outside the lines"....theres not many here besides me that do that....

I have a hard time believing you typed this with a straight face. You're a legend in you own mind.

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

i'm not always right but i am alot and i have the balls to give a non-standard opinion.

The problem is, your opinions are ALWAYS post race. Where are your pre race non standard opinions? It's easy after the race.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

its hard not to be abrasive here...especially the crap that qualifies for betting knowledge....then again some one has to stir the pot. then you talk about "thinking outside the lines"....theres not many here besides me that do that....this is bandwagon central....thats part of the reason i'm abrasive(i don't follow the lemmings). how many times have you seen me say...."this horse can't lose"...or the classic....."the rest are running for second". this is horse racing, there is no such thing as "superman" or "santa claus". almost every horse can and will lose at some point. i'll give credit where its due though....hes absolutely right you can't bet uncle mo at under 10-1....but somehow he gives the horse an almost 20% chance of winning...makes perfect sense in the derby trail world.....i just have trouble reading and digesting the hype. people are right this crap is useful....it builds confidence......lol. that horse probably has a 20% chance of missing the top 4....so hes right there too. i'm not always right but i am alot and i have the balls to give a non-standard opinion. people just hate that.....you think i don't know i'm a pain in the ass too.....lol. i try to make people think for themselves which is the key to success when you are gambling on anything!!!!!! you can be a "fan" all you want and you'll lose all the time too. i've been reading here since the big brown is the best dilemma of 2008....lol

Louise Foster would be proud.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

its hard not to be abrasive here...especially the crap that qualifies for betting knowledge....then again some one has to stir the pot. then you talk about "thinking outside the lines"....theres not many here besides me that do that....this is bandwagon central....thats part of the reason i'm abrasive(i don't follow the lemmings). how many times have you seen me say...."this horse can't lose"...or the classic....."the rest are running for second". this is horse racing, there is no such thing as "superman" or "santa claus". almost every horse can and will lose at some point. i'll give credit where its due though....hes absolutely right you can't bet uncle mo at under 10-1....but somehow he gives the horse an almost 20% chance of winning...makes perfect sense in the derby trail world.....i just have trouble reading and digesting the hype. people are right this crap is useful....it builds confidence......lol. that horse probably has a 20% chance of missing the top 4....so hes right there too. i'm not always right but i am alot and i have the balls to give a non-standard opinion. people just hate that.....you think i don't know i'm a pain in the ass too.....lol. i try to make people think for themselves which is the key to success when you are gambling on anything!!!!!! you can be a "fan" all you want and you'll lose all the time too. i've been reading here since the big brown is the best dilemma of 2008....lol

I'm looking forward to your derby picks. I'm sure we won't see them until the day after the race.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Finally, as for taking great offense to R Heat Lighting winning the Derby. I did no such thing. It's a preposterous idea, and I let you know it. Just because I posted an opinion (a true rarity!) that was sharply different than yours, doesn't mean I took offense.

I'm done with this. . . but you're still confused. I NEVER said R Heat Lightning could win the Derby. I said the opposite. You do realize I wasn't the one who originally had that discussion with you, right?

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm done with this. . . but you're still confused. I NEVER said R Heat Lightning could win the Derby. I said the opposite. You do realize I wasn't the one who originally had that discussion with you, right?

Yes, I do realize that.

Yet, you keep bothering me about my saying that R Heat Lightning can't possibly win the Derby.

Maybe your confusion has confused me.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Yes, I do realize that.

Yet, you keep bothering me about my saying that R Heat Lightning can't possibly win the Derby.

Maybe your confusion has confused me.

I'm bothering you because of your insulting and laughably inaccurate conclusions about me. . . I could not care less about your opinion on an actual horse race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I'm bothering you because of your insulting and laughably inaccurate conclusions about me. . . I could not care less about your opinion on an actual horse race.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.

Which explains why you are bothering me ABOUT R Heat Lightning, and not my laughably inaccurate conclusions about you.

I repeat, yet again. Marshmallow.

[Dahoss]

It's too bad Da Hoss was gelded. I would have had fun "joking" about his offspring.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's too bad Da Hoss was gelded. I would have had fun "joking" about his offspring.

No doubt.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

You do realize I wasn't the one who originally had that discussion with you, right?

The irony in this is I never said that R Heat Lightning could win. I do think you have to consider running though, at least if you own her, given how lame every other prep has looked so far.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The irony in this is I never said that R Heat Lightning could win. I do think you have to consider running though, at least if you own her, given how lame every other prep has looked so far.

I see what you're saying with her. . . and I don't think it'd be a completely crazy idea to run her because, on paper, she looks extremely logical. It's the whole "would you rather be 2-1 for $1M or 12-1 for $2M?" debate. I assume Mrs. Robsham would keep her for breeding, which makes the decision easier.

One passing comment I made while not really paying attention and focusing on covering the sale has become much more of a focal point than it was intended to be. . .

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The irony in this is I never said that R Heat Lightning could win. I do think you have to consider running though, at least if you own her, given how lame every other prep has looked so far.

No. The irony is that all I said was that she would get slaughtered in the Derby.

Then, I said she would be a worse fit than either Brethren or that Illinois Derby winner. Apparently, that must mean that I was giving out the exacta, or something.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

No. The irony is that all I said was that she would get slaughtered in the Derby.

Then, I said she would be a worse fit than either Brethren or that Illinois Derby winner. Apparently, that must mean that I was giving out the exacta, or something.

No, that just means that your opinion, in this case, is s.hit.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

No, that just means that your opinion, in this case, is s.hit.

Maybe with Joe Vann. Brethren would most likely finish ahead of R Heat Lightning in the Derby.

And let's be clear on this. I am no fan of Brethren, and thought he was overrated from the get go.

My entire point in saying that was to say that the Derby is an absolutely horrific fit for that filly.

It is astonishing that people don't see that.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Maybe with Joe Vann. Brethren would most likely finish ahead of R Heat Lightning in the Derby.

And let's be clear on this. I am no fan of Brethren, and thought he was overrated from the get go.

My entire point in saying that was to say that the Derby is an absolutely horrific fit for that filly.

It is astonishing that people don't see that.

This is the problem with this entire thread, which I was dumb enough to read all of. You're taking your opinion and then insulting anyone who disagrees with it. You think she'd be a bad fit, some have disagreed, it's perfectly OK for there to be differing viewpoints.

There's something that needs to be mentioned in every discussion on this message board about the Derby. We have just been treated to seven of the worst Derby preps in the last 20 years. There has been very, very little to like about any of them (Wood-Spiral-Sunland Derby-Fla Derby-Wood-Ill Derby-SA Derby). In that time period there was a pretty damn good performance by a filly.

There are plenty of factors that go into whether she could be competitive in the Derby. They should be weighed by her connections. No one is saying she should go or would be a great fit, but hell, there's no way I'd completely dismiss it if I owned her.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

This is the problem with this entire thread, which I was dumb enough to read all of. You're taking your opinion and then insulting anyone who disagrees with it. You think she'd be a bad fit, some have disagreed, it's perfectly OK for there to be differing viewpoints.

There's something that needs to be mentioned in every discussion on this message board about the Derby. We have just been treated to seven of the worst Derby preps in the last 20 years. There has been very, very little to like about any of them (Wood-Spiral-Sunland Derby-Fla Derby-Wood-Ill Derby-SA Derby). In that time period there was a pretty damn good performance by a filly.

There are plenty of factors that go into whether she could be competitive in the Derby. They should be weighed by her connections. No one is saying she should go or would be a great fit, but hell, there's no way I'd completely dismiss it if I owned her.

Remember, I just threw out the comment "She would get slaughtered in the Derby", and then the **** flinging started. I was not insulting anybody.

Did I overreact to what Hockey said? Yeah, I suppose I did, but he's been sort of a little bitch at me lately, so I gave him some crap back.

And, if I did own that filly, I would very much think she was a bad fit for the Derby.

As bad as you think the Derby preps have been, the fillies have been much worse. It's not even close in my eyes.

I'm not even sure I'd agree with you that those Derby preps were as bad as you say. For starters, I don't count the Spiral and the Sunland race as legit preps. The Illinois Derby? I'd probably dismiss that as well.

You count the Wood twice. Did you mean to say the Gotham, or maybe the FOY? Regardless, I thought the SA Derby turned out to be a better race than I expected (after the scratch of PP anyways). The Fla Derby was overhyped, which leaves us with the Wood.

While obviously I am disappointed with the result, looking at the race objectively, I think the first two finishers ran much better than anyone expected.

These prep races were, as a whole, not what we were all hoping for, but man, there've been much worse in recent years.

[lemoncrush]

I think when this whole Derby thing is over, you two should get an apartment together. Name that movie.