I'll Have Another's value as a stallion if he sweeps the Triple Crown

[slotdirt]

I'm interested in hearing about the stallion prospects of other OBS sales grads of recent vintage like Flat Out, Giant Ryan, Aikenite, and Midnight Lute.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

I think it could get up to $60-70 million if he wins the Triple Crown. A few farms will find that simply having the Triple Crown Messiah on their stallion roster is worth that bill.

When you add the inevitable interest from Japanese stallion stations, it's going to be hefty, because the Japanese don't view or value our pedigrees the same way. They go after American horses that can win big 10-furlong races: Roses in May, Silver Charm, Charismatic, War Emblem, and obviously Sunday Silence from two decades ago. (I may be forgetting a couple obvious studs.) They made a STRONG push for Tiznow as well. I do not think a Japanese farm will get I'll Have Another, but I mention their interest because it will drive the price tag up quite considerably.

I think the more interesting question is what his stud fee will be when he retires. Fees for freshmen have fluctuated so much in the last twelve years or so.

I dont think there is any chance that he gets to those numbers. $60 million for Fu Peg was crazy but you have to take into consideration that he was going to be a full time dual hemispehere stallion right from the start. I have a hard time believing that there will be much demand for IHA in Australia based on the pedigree.

Even if he were to get 150 mares a year at 75k for 3 years (which I dont think is extremely likely) still only brings in $33 million in stud fees.

I wouldn't rule out any price for him at this point. You could have him go for $100 million and look up in 5 years and see that Meydan is named Khalifa Downs.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'm interested in hearing about the stallion prospects of other OBS sales grads of recent vintage like Flat Out, Giant Ryan, Aikenite, and Midnight Lute.

I don't like the chances of any of them.

The dam of Aikenite was a real runner:




Aikenite was the Lebron James of the OBS 2-year-old sales in 2009. He worked a sales best quarter mile in 20.40 and had an absolutely huge stride.

He only sold for $225,000 -- but when you consider he was sired by Yes It's True and his dam was that rat pictured above ... you could better understand why.

Hard to believe he paid $15.40 when he won his debut at Saratoga -- and Serling even relayed all of the info before the race.

Aikenite made 866K and was a multiple Graded Stakes winner, 4th in last years BC Sprint. However, his one major flaw that was not apparent at OBS was his lack of gate speed and slowness into stride.

They get a run-up start at OBS -- and hit peak speed at the start of the work. If Aikenite had gate speed -- he would have been Fabulous Strike 2.0

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by pba1817

Based on what is shown here, Elusive Quality looked like a run off sprinter who if he didn't have the lead at the top of the lane, was all done. Never won more than a G3 is surprising as well. Those GP Beyers jump off the page, which GP Beyers still do to this day for early speed. For some reason I thought EQ was better on the track than this...

It's been awhile, but I think I remember Elusive Quality running some freaky races as a 3 year old. Those aren't in the PP's that were shown. He set some crazy fractions in either a mile or 1 1/16th race at Belmont before getting beat very late.

[KirisClown]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

It's been awhile, but I think I remember Elusive Quality running some freaky races as a 3 year old. Those aren't in the PP's that were shown. He set some crazy fractions in either a mile or 1 1/16th race at Belmont before getting beat very late.

Here's the race you're talking about with the wild fractions..

Race: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOPcA6fuZVY


Elusive Quality's maiden win: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pGQOFX11YE8

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

I'll Have Another has a career to finish, but in today's stallion market, I have a hard time seeing him above $50,000, even if he were to win the Belmont. He might be somehat comparable to a Big Brown (by Boundary, as opposed to a son of a top sire). Even Big Brown, however, was at an advertised (not actual) $60,000 fee, in a far more favorable bloodstock market.

Right now, the most accomplished and desirable first-year stallions are standing for about $35,000 (see Blame, Quality Road, Uncle Mo). Each of these three horses is by an accomplished, fashionable sire (Arch, Elusive Quality, Indian Charlie), not something you can say about Flower Alley. I also agree with the point made by others that the fact I'll Have Another was an $11,000 yearling and $35,000 2YO is something that will weigh on breeders' minds. Regardless of what price he starts at, he'll probably be standing in the $10,000 - $20,000 range by the time his first crop are 5YOs (if he wins the Triple Crown) and likely lower than that if he fails to win the Belmont.

It will be interesting to see what Three Chimneys does with Flower Alley. He'll probably be back up to $20-25,000 (where he started) for 2013, which is a huge stretch given his production to date, and back to $7,500 by 2016. Kind of like what happened to Our Emblem after War Emblem won the Derby and Preakness.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Charismatic1

Maybe when he's 5, sure. However, I have seen many horses with fashionable pedigrees and comparable attributes to the horses you mentioned also drop to $10,000 or less after a much higher freshman fee. Then, there are horses like lowly Cal-bred Tiznow, who didn't excel at 9 furlongs or less and known more for his grit than his talent. Many were surprised when he started at $30k or $35k, but he's up to $75k now and could rightly pull more.

BTW, you speak as though he has NO early speed. He has shown plenty. Sure, he was a tad further back in the Derby and Preakness compared to the Lewis and SA Derby, but how's that a penalty? Nobody held a complete lack of early speed against Tapit.

Assuming he is retired after this year, I have to believe the first Triple Crown winner in 34 years will stand for at least $75,000 in 2013. And most importantly, he would get really good mares. Never underestimate the allure of the Derby and Triple Crown. Many breeding decisions are influenced by those dreams. Many will figure: What better place to start than the horse who actually did it?

Tiznow, while a Calbred, was not lowly bred. His sire, to this day, was one of the most awesomely fast horses I've ever seen. I would probably put Cee's Tizzy in the top 10-20 most talented racehorses (on dirt) that I've ever seen.

His dam was pretty good too. In fact, the year before Tiznow won the BCC for the first time, his full brother was second in the BCC in what was one of the most unlikely BC wins I've ever seen, by Cat Thief. This same horse also beat a future Kentucky Derby winner early in his 3yo season.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I'll Have Another has a career to finish, but in today's stallion market, I have a hard time seeing him above $50,000, even if he were to win the Belmont. He might be somehat comparable to a Big Brown (by Boundary, as opposed to a son of a top sire). Even Big Brown, however, was at an advertised (not actual) $60,000 fee, in a far more favorable bloodstock market.

Right now, the most accomplished and desirable first-year stallions are standing for about $35,000 (see Blame, Quality Road, Uncle Mo). Each of these three horses is by an accomplished, fashionable sire (Arch, Elusive Quality, Indian Charlie), not something you can say about Flower Alley. I also agree with the point made by others that the fact I'll Have Another was an $11,000 yearling and $35,000 2YO is something that will weigh on breeders' minds. Regardless of what price he starts at, he'll probably be standing in the $10,000 - $20,000 range by the time his first crop are 5YOs (if he wins the Triple Crown) and likely lower than that if he fails to win the Belmont.

It will be interesting to see what Three Chimneys does with Flower Alley. He'll probably be back up to $20-25,000 (where he started) for 2013, which is a huge stretch given his production to date, and back to $7,500 by 2016. Kind of like what happened to Our Emblem after War Emblem won the Derby and Preakness.

Supposedly the price went up after the Preakness to 15k for the remainder of the 2012 season. Don't know what they will be looking for next year.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

There are 10 to 15 horses from this crop who will make better stallions. He's an OBS cheapie.

You may be correct, but my question is how much does the fact that he actually worked well at the sale and then led gate-to-wire in his debut going 5.5f in July of his 2yo year alleviate some of the concerns raised by the fact that he was an "OBS cheapie?" You mentioned Skip Away as a comparison but (unlike IHA) Skip Away was pretty useless in his sprint tries as a 2yo. He didn't do anything until they stretched him out to 8f, and he really wasn't much of a horse until they stretched him out to 9f.
If a slower-developing colt with limited speed won the TC, it would obviously be a bad sign for his success as a sire regardless of his racetrack accomplishments. But does IHA really fit that bill?

[Calzone Lord]

Past major Grade 1 winning males from OBS 2-year-old sales:

Lil E Tee (Kentucky Derby winner)

Favorite Trick (Horse of the year 2yo)

Skip Away (Hall of Famer)

Silver Charm (Hall of Famer)

Marlin (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Buck's Boy (Breeders Cup Turf)

Precocity (Grade 1 winner)

Val's Prince (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Yankee Victor (Met Mile winner)

City Zip and Flame Thrower (Best 2yo sprinters of season - Flame Thrower repeatedly beat Street Cry and City Zip swept all 3 Graded Stakes for 2yos at Saratoga)

Swept Overboard (Multiple Grade 1 winner - Met Mile winner)

Delaware Township (Top class Grade 1 winning sprinter)

Outofthebox (Grade 1 winner -- solid message board poster)

D'Wildcat (Grade 1 winning sprinter)

Booklet (Grade 1 winner)

Peace Rules (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Southern Image (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Kitten's Joy (Multiple Grade 1 winner)

Proud Accolade (Grade 1 winner)

Nothing to Lose (Grade 1 winner)

Roses In May (Dubai World Cup winner, 2nd in BC Classic)

Lost In The Fog (Grade 1 winner)

Bellamy Road (Grade 1 winner and KY Derby favorite)

Buzzards Bay (Grade 1 winner)

Captain Squire (Grade 1 winner)

Premium Tap (Grade 1 winner)

Midnight Lute (Back to Back Breeders Cup Sprint winner)

Flashy Bull (Grade 1 winner)

The rest are all 2008 or recent.

[Merlinsky]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...m-triple-crown

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

buzzards bay..lol..havent heard that one in a wile..

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...m-triple-crown

Collectively, they estimate I’ll Have Another’s breeding rights are worth between $6 million to $10 million and that he could stand during his first year between $15,000 and $30,000.

$6 to $10 million is a little closer to being in-line with reality.

Hopefully the horse stays around.