If you like Sun King in the Classic...

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Slot I know you know this but the Preakness is at 1 3/16 not 1 1/4.

Yes, but the original post included the Preakness as one of the 10f races Sun King has run. It's a sixteenth short of 10 furlongs, but for argument purposes, I'm fine grouping this into the other three 10f efforts Sun King has had.

And I think he's only tried 10 furlongs three times, 3:0-0-1 if I'm not mistaken. I don't think that says anything about the horse's ability to run well next Saturday.

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Yes, but the original post included the Preakness as one of the 10f races Sun King has run. It's a sixteenth short of 10 furlongs, but for argument purposes, I'm fine grouping this into the other three 10f efforts Sun King has had.

And I think he's only tried 10 furlongs three times, 3:0-0-1 if I'm not mistaken. I don't think that says anything about the horse's ability to run well next Saturday.

I agree with that.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

No one is igoring breeding, we are saying that breeding is a component when capping older horses.

Now I am not sure why you dont think Sun King can get the distance. He only raced twice at that distance after the Derby 1 year ago. Once in JCGC where he finished 3rd to Borrego and that horse simply drew off. However, Sun King was clear by 5 lengths finishing 3rd. In the Classic he stunk it up but he was facing older horses and a couple of good ones even though I didnt think the field was all that well. But since, the horse has matured and has run some nice races. He was closing nicely in his last three starts and if you look at his fractions he is getting faster as the race goes on. Sometimes that is an indication of a horse that is capable of going longer. In handicapping you have to look at the hidden vairables and be able to make sense of them. Closing at 1 mile or 1 1/16 miles does not equal being able to get 10f. But it also doesnt say the horse cant. A clear third by 5 against older horses for the first time and a dismal peformance in the Classic doesnt mean he cant get 10f. I think he will run a good race and this field is suspect and why not him.

good luck chatting with BBB. i mentioned other horses who were supposedly limited at going a distance according to some posters, yet showed they COULD indeed do so--which he interpreted as me saying I thought they were limited--when in fact i was using them as examples to show that not all horses who are perceived as being limited (such as sun king)are actually unable to get a distance of ground. now of course when i mentioned GZ and intercontinental, they had never run at their bc distances, so it was a 50/50 shot for those who said they couldn't do it--yet they showed quite easily that they could.
now sun king is a different case, as he has run at the 10f distance previously. of course he's shown some ability--such as his narrow loss to invasor...

Good for you Euro: But first let me post that I fancy Sun King as a fabulous racehorse, and my post, was merely expressing that there are two sides to every coin. He somewhat resembles the "wiseguy" horse this year. Many 'cappers, this forum, are "keying" him and I think he has some very large obstacles. For instance;

1) He has tried this trip, about a mile and a quarter, five times. From the half mile pole home, in his closing finishes, Sun King, has lost; 8 lengths,6 lengths, 6, 8, and 9 lengths.

2) Sun King will not have raced in NINE weeks.

3) Sun King will pick up NINE pounds off his last.

4) Sun King has not won A Grade I. Of his two Grade II triumphs, one was in Pennsylvania and the other was in the Commonwealth @ Keeneland when the field STRUGGLED to get their last 3/8's in some :40 seconds. The average winning Beyer for that race is 108; Sun King's Beyer of 98 would not have put him anywhere close in the 20 previous runnings.

Ceejay and Sightseek excellent input.

As for Intercontinental's wire job which was a major score for many in our circle, Brisnet.com bet a $49,000 pick six ticket and did NOT include her! BBB

[todko]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Good for you Euro: But first let me post that I fancy Sun King as a fabulous racehorse, and my post, was merely expressing that there are two sides to every coin. He somewhat resembles the "wiseguy" horse this year. Many 'cappers, this forum, are "keying" him and I think he has some very large obstacles. For instance;

1) He has tried this trip, about a mile and a quarter, five times. From the half mile pole home, in his closing finishes, Sun King, has lost; 8 lengths,6 lengths, 6, 8, and 9 lengths.

2) Sun King will not have raced in NINE weeks.

3) Sun King will pick up NINE pounds off his last.

4) Sun King has not won A Grade I. Of his two Grade II triumphs, one was in Pennsylvania and the other was in the Commonwealth @ Keeneland when the field STRUGGLED to get their last 3/8's in some :40 seconds. The average winning Beyer for that race is 108; Sun King's Beyer of 98 would not have put him anywhere close in the 20 previous runnings.

Ceejay and Sightseek excellent input.

As for Intercontinental's wire job which was a major score for many in our circle, Brisnet.com bet a $49,000 pick six ticket and did NOT include her! BBB

One of my handicapping associates drilled Intercontinental big time last year. I didn't question the horse's ability to get the distance -- the breeding spoke volumes about distance (as was later proven in the actual race). However, I was overly negative about the Bailey to Bejarano move on turf. To me, Jerry Bailey is perhaps the best turf jockey America has ever produced. One of the few who could turf with the Euro jocks. Bejarano, to this day nearly a year later, isn't the turf jock that he is on dirt. To me, Bailey to Bejarano on turf was a huge downgrade (not so on dirt however).

I missed a huge price that day and was stunned like most 'cappers.

After the race, when I asked my handicapping associate why she chose Intercontinental, she said, "Bejarano has an uncanny ability to get horses to relax -- he sits well". She had a sharp eye that day and from being associated with the Kentucky circuit her judgement was sound on Bejarano and the call.

She made a nice chunk of change and I was glad for her.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by bellsbendboy

Good for you Euro: But first let me post that I fancy Sun King as a fabulous racehorse, and my post, was merely expressing that there are two sides to every coin. He somewhat resembles the "wiseguy" horse this year. Many 'cappers, this forum, are "keying" him and I think he has some very large obstacles. For instance;

1) He has tried this trip, about a mile and a quarter, five times. From the half mile pole home, in his closing finishes, Sun King, has lost; 8 lengths,6 lengths, 6, 8, and 9 lengths.

2) Sun King will not have raced in NINE weeks.

3) Sun King will pick up NINE pounds off his last.

4) Sun King has not won A Grade I. Of his two Grade II triumphs, one was in Pennsylvania and the other was in the Commonwealth @ Keeneland when the field STRUGGLED to get their last 3/8's in some :40 seconds. The average winning Beyer for that race is 108; Sun King's Beyer of 98 would not have put him anywhere close in the 20 previous runnings.

Ceejay and Sightseek excellent input.

As for Intercontinental's wire job which was a major score for many in our circle, Brisnet.com bet a $49,000 pick six ticket and did NOT include her! BBB

Nice work BBB. I really appreciate the analysis.

I like Sun King but I agree that he has proven that 10 furlongs is beyond his scope. The hype surrounding this horse for this race i wont understand other than the fact that it is a New York based Zito horse and like all the other ones, they seem to be overhyped from the start. I am glad the hype will possess people to bet on entries with little to no chance. Sentimental favorites like Perfect Drift and Sun King always helps the other prices.

As for Premium Tap, I dont like his chances at all either. I am willing to throw out the last race but its the other races that i have trouble with. The woodward was won on a speed favoring track against some pretty suspect horses. In the race before, the whitney, he was destroyed by Invasor. He just doesnt seem like a top class horse especially looking at his lack of success in even winning allowance races of which he was 1-4 this year.

[slotdirt]

Let me ask you guys who are doubting Sun King: first, name the five races where he's attempted 10 furlongs? I only count three.

Second, has Sun King tried 10 furlongs in his four year old season? Lots of horses have run up the track at longer distances as three year olds, yet came back to run brilliantly at 10f as older horses. Pleasantly Perfect comes to mind. Conversely, there are many horses who show promise at a distance as sophomores, yet don't run a lick as an older horse. Flower Alley immediately comes to mind.

I'd love to hear answers to those two questions.

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

While I actually think Sun King has a good shot to hit the board in the Classic, I don't really get your post. First, Pleasantly Perfect had one race as a 3 year old, on the turf, and he was eased. I for one am not convinced that Sun King can't win at 1 1/4, but I think it's because of his running style now. Instead of being up on the pace, he's making one run, and his success this year is no coincidence. Yeah Flower Alley had had a very dissappointing year, but I don't think he has really been healthy all year. The distance of the races has nothing to do with it.

I think hes healthy now though Da Hoss.
Pletcher was furious with the committee's decision to make him an also eligible and if he were only running the horse on the owners say so, I doubt he would have been that furious.
His last work was also reported to be excellent, as in super.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

While I actually think Sun King has a good shot to hit the board in the Classic, I don't really get your post. First, Pleasantly Perfect had one race as a 3 year old, on the turf, and he was eased. I for one am not convinced that Sun King can't win at 1 1/4, but I think it's because of his running style now. Instead of being up on the pace, he's making one run, and his success this year is no coincidence. Yeah Flower Alley had had a very dissappointing year, but I don't think he has really been healthy all year. The distance of the races has nothing to do with it.

My point is that I don't think a few races against some very tough competition as a 3YO really proves a thing when it comes to the form of an older horse in November of their 4YO season. My second point is that 3YO form doesn't always translate into form as an older horse. Maybe Pleasantly Perfect is a bad example, but there are still a gaggle of horses out there who stink up the joint at a distance as a 3YO, yet run their eyeballs out at the same distance once they've matured.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I think hes healthy now though Da Hoss.
Pletcher was furious with the committee's decision to make him an also eligible and if he were only running the horse on the owners say so, I doubt he would have been that furious.
His last work was also reported to be excellent, as in super.

When Todd got furious did it occur to him that it was impossible for Flower Alley to be excluded from the race?

Or perhaps he couldn't believe the committee actually excluded the least deserving entrant in the race. Who, pray tell, does he think Flower Alley should have received preference over?

[slotdirt]

Super Frolic?

Dalakhani: I would not be too critical of Premium Tap's Whitney debacle as he missed several workouts due to bad track conditions.

Slot: Pleasantly Perfect is by Pleasant Colony out of an Affirmed mare, a stout ten furlong pedigree. Sun King is genetically challenged at ten panels as his past performances point out. Two races were at one mile and three sixteenths, and lumped into the five. BBB

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

When Todd got furious did it occur to him that it was impossible for Flower Alley to be excluded from the race?

Or perhaps he couldn't believe the committee actually excluded the least deserving entrant in the race. Who, pray tell, does he think Flower Alley should have received preference over?

Super Frolic for one.

Horses in bad form who have won grade ones and raced at that highest level should always be preferred over horses who NEVER have.
I don't think I'm alone in saying that it isn't rocket science that in a grade one race that horses who have ACTUALLY won grade ones should get iin before those who never have.

Suave is a joke as well. Hes never won a grade one either, and his form doesn't exactly look like he belongs in here.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Super Frolic for one.

Super Frolic has had a MUCH better year than Flower Alley.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Suave is a joke as well. Hes never won a grade one either, and his form doesn't exactly look like he belongs in here.

Suave had a better year, as unbelievable as it seems, than Flower Alley but he is probably the fairest argument for exclusion.

Regardless, I am surprised Todd made an issue of this at all, as it doesn't seem like him especially when you consider the horse really wasn't being excluded....and Todd is easily smart enough to know that.

[slotdirt]

I'm not going to continue arguing with someone who thinks having Clever Trick as a broodmare sire is going to be a detriment to a horse trying to run 10 furlongs for the first time in over a year next Saturday. That is just downright preposterous.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

That is just downright preposterous.

Preposterous arguments on the internet????????

[slotdirt]

Sun King's grand-damsire is half to Ruffian. Nope, he shouldn't be able to go 10 panels. Not at all. What a joke.