Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[moses]

Originally Posted by casp0555

that 5th is a doozy, it has Maker, Chad, Ness, and Cox..The Cox starter looks strongest from the debut'ers to me but these baby races are good luck!

I was hoping to avoid betting a 2YO race but the weather looks rough for later in the card and I’m not very good at picking off-turf races…though I think I’m showing that I’m not very good at picking any type of race.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

I was hoping to avoid betting a 2YO race but the weather looks rough for later in the card and I’m not very good at picking off-turf races…though I think I’m showing that I’m not very good at picking any type of race.

You need to stop beating yourself up. Wait until the meet is over and measure your stats.. It is not like your guys are running up the track. It is Win Quality and Not Quantity... Having to endure in real time 20 losses to get your 30-1 winner ****s with your head.

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

You need to stop beating yourself up. Wait until the meet is over and measure your stats.. It is not like your guys are running up the track. It is Win Quality and Not Quantity... Having to endure in real time 20 losses to get your 30-1 winner ****s with your head.

Thanks. It’s definitely mentally tough to work through it. I’ve been a little better with my actual wagers but still down there. Hopefully just need that one big hit to turn things around.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by moses

Saratoga’s Affair is scratched. I was trying to avoid 2YO races and end up between Cherie Devaux’s horse in the 2nd who is 7/2 (and I suspect might drift up a bit) and the Jamie Ness horse in the 5th. I’ll probably be betting both of them but since the one horse is 7/2, I’ll hold my nose and go with:

Best value: Race 5 - #7 Kenner 15/1 ML (Ness/Rodriguez).

[moses]

Originally Posted by casp0555

I’m sure the 7 won’t win now…but if both come out, it’ll be a pretty nice day for me.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by moses

I’m sure the 7 won’t win now…but if both come out, it’ll be a pretty nice day for me.

I'll bet the other six runners and it will be a

[moses]

Originally Posted by casp0555

I'll bet the other six runners and it will be a

Haha.

The tough part about these selections. If I knew it was 6/1 on the Devaux horse vs. 7/1 on the Broberg horse, it’s a totally different ballgame. Ah well.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Rockemperor ran a nice race to finish 2nd, returning $6.20. A little sad when losing $1.80 on the day feels like a win. Maybe a new month will help change my luck. Tally is now at:

$72.00 wagered
$34.40 returned

Sunday August 1st

Best bet: Race 9 - #3 Jackie’s Warrior 6/5 ML (Asmussen/Rosario).

Best value: Race 6 - #11 Saratoga Affair 10/1 ML (Brown/I.Ortiz).

I’ll update so I don’t have to do it on Wednesday. Well I picked the wrong alternate. Jackie’s Warrior won easy and paid $5.20 total combined for win and place.

$80.00 wagered.
$39.60 returned.

[moses]

I'm going to be on the road the next couple days so I'll post my picks today with an alternate listed in case the turf races are taken off or in case of scratches. I like a few of the prices on Wednesday. I'm probably getting a little too creative with my picks on Thursday but I guess we'll see.

Wednesday August 4th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Casual, 9/2 ML (Asmussen/Santana).
Alternate: Race 4 - #4 Coffee Bar, 6/5 ML (Pletcher/I.Ortiz).

Best value: Race 10 - #2 Be Up, 8/1 ML (Thomas/Saez).
Alternate: Race 6 - #1 Towering Orbit, 8/1 ML (Baker/Rosario).
2nd Alternate: Race 7 - #11 Christopher, 10/1 ML (Stephens/Davis).


Thursday August 5th

Best bet: Race 7 - #5 Mr. Kringle, 6/1 ML (Terranova/Lezcano).
Alternate: Race 10 - #9 Escapewithfriends, 7/2 ML (Weaver/Cancel).

Best value: Race 4 - #7 Chulainn, 8/1 ML (Motion/Rosario).
Alternate: Race 8 - #7 Joey Loose Lips, 15/1 ML (Giangulio/Vargas).
2nd alternate: Race 3 - #5 Full Salute, 30/1 ML (Tournas/Harkie). (Note: This may be the first and only time I put Heman Harkie in my picks. I'm just not sold on any of the horses in this race and am intrigued with the possibility that this horse jumps out to the lead early and they aren't able to catch him late.)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I'm going to be on the road the next couple days so I'll post my picks today with an alternate listed in case the turf races are taken off or in case of scratches. I like a few of the prices on Wednesday. I'm probably getting a little too creative with my picks on Thursday but I guess we'll see.

Wednesday August 4th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Casual, 9/2 ML (Asmussen/Santana).
Alternate: Race 4 - #4 Coffee Bar, 6/5 ML (Pletcher/I.Ortiz).

Best value: Race 10 - #2 Be Up, 8/1 ML (Thomas/Saez).
Alternate: Race 6 - #1 Towering Orbit, 8/1 ML (Baker/Rosario).
2nd Alternate: Race 7 - #11 Christopher, 10/1 ML (Stephens/Davis).


Thursday August 5th

Best bet: Race 7 - #5 Mr. Kringle, 6/1 ML (Terranova/Lezcano).
Alternate: Race 10 - #9 Escapewithfriends, 7/2 ML (Weaver/Cancel).

Best value: Race 4 - #7 Chulainn, 8/1 ML (Motion/Rosario).
Alternate: Race 8 - #7 Joey Loose Lips, 15/1 ML (Giangulio/Vargas).
2nd alternate: Race 3 - #5 Full Salute, 30/1 ML (Tournas/Harkie). (Note: This may be the first and only time I put Heman Harkie in my picks. I'm just not sold on any of the horses in this race and am intrigued with the possibility that this horse jumps out to the lead early and they aren't able to catch him late.)

So checking in and my first alternate and second alternate for best value win. One at 7/2 and the other at 10/1. Of course I’ve been busy and didn’t bet either race. Major face palm.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

So checking in and my first alternate and second alternate for best value win. One at 7/2 and the other at 10/1. Of course I’ve been busy and didn’t bet either race. Major face palm.

Well Casual finished 3rd, just getting edged by Aunt Kat. I don’t even remember what Be Up did but that was a big disappointment given how my alternates performed. And Joey Loose Lips with a nice run for place. I thought he had that one. My actual best value pick…did not run as well.

Luckily I got to hit today with Mr. Kringle and he returned $15.30 for win and place.

Wagered: $96.00
Returned: $54.90

[moses]

Friday August 6th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Art Collector, 3/1 ML (Mott/Saez)
Alternate: Race 9 - #7 Imprimis, 3/1 ML (Orseno/I.Ortiz)

Best value: Race 6 - #5 Value Engineering, 9/2 ML (Brown/Castellano)
Alternate: Race 10 - #7 The Big Grey, 12/1 ML (J.Englehart/J.Ortiz)

[moses]

Saturday August 7th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Obligatory 4/1 ML (Mott/J.Ortiz)
Alternate: Race 6 - #5 Flavius 3/1 ML (Brown/Prat)
Alternate #2: Race 7 - #3 War Like Goddess 8/5 ML (Mott/Leparoux)

Best value: Race 12 - #10 Bay Storm 6/1 ML (Thomas/Franco)
Alternate: Race 9 - #11 King Fury 10/1 ML (McPeek/J.Ortiz) (I am probably a sucker for this pick but just have a hunch here.)
Alternate #2: Race 10 - #1 By My Standards 10/1 ML (Calhoun/G.Saez) (Note: He is the longest shot on the board but I think based on last race and the recent works that he is ready to run a big race.)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well Casual finished 3rd, just getting edged by Aunt Kat. I don’t even remember what Be Up did but that was a big disappointment given how my alternates performed. And Joey Loose Lips with a nice run for place. I thought he had that one. My actual best value pick…did not run as well.

Luckily I got to hit today with Mr. Kringle and he returned $15.30 for win and place.

Wagered: $96.00
Returned: $54.90

With Art Collector’s win I’m now at:

Wagered: $104.00
Returned: $64.30

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

With Art Collector’s win I’m now at:

Wagered: $104.00
Returned: $64.30

I completely whiffed yesterday so I’m now at:

Wagered: $112.00
Returned: $64.30

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Shesawildjoker, 10/1 ML (Donk/Velazquez)

Best value: Race 6 - #2 Free Chickens, 10/1 ML (Abreu/Saez)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I completely whiffed yesterday so I’m now at:

Wagered: $112.00
Returned: $64.30

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Shesawildjoker, 10/1 ML (Donk/Velazquez)

Best value: Race 6 - #2 Free Chickens, 10/1 ML (Abreu/Saez)

Another shutout so now at $120.00 wagered and only $64.30 returned.

Wednesday August 11th

I'm not crazy about too many horses on this card. I think Gotta Go Mo in the 4th is probably the most likely winner today and considered making him my "best bet" but he's 7/5 so I'm going to take a shot with Lucky Brody who gets some class relief and faces off against a duo of favorites with possible distance limitations. I'm not totally against ML favorite Town Avenger in the 7th. She looks like a pretty talented filly but I suspect she may get bet down even more than that. Casse has been ice cold at Saratoga...but Earth Strike had some trouble last time out and still finished well and I think will appreciate the added distance. Plus Rosario is back aboard.

Best bet: Race 5 - #6 Lucky Brody, 10/1 ML (Noda/Franco).

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Earth Strike, 8/1 ML (Casse/Rosario).

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Another shutout so now at $120.00 wagered and only $64.30 returned.

Wednesday August 11th

I'm not crazy about too many horses on this card. I think Gotta Go Mo in the 4th is probably the most likely winner today and considered making him my "best bet" but he's 7/5 so I'm going to take a shot with Lucky Brody who gets some class relief and faces off against a duo of favorites with possible distance limitations. I'm not totally against ML favorite Town Avenger in the 7th. She looks like a pretty talented filly but I suspect she may get bet down even more than that. Casse has been ice cold at Saratoga...but Earth Strike had some trouble last time out and still finished well and I think will appreciate the added distance. Plus Rosario is back aboard.

Best bet: Race 5 - #6 Lucky Brody, 10/1 ML (Noda/Franco).

Best value: Race 7 - #4 Earth Strike, 8/1 ML (Casse/Rosario).

Wagered: $128.00
Returned: $64.30


Well I was right to bet against the favorites in race 5…but landed on the wrong longshot. Earth Strike ran alright but finished a distant 4th. Going to go with a pair of Pletcher horses today, though I wouldn’t be shocked if we don’t get the ML prices on them.

Best bet: Race 4 - #1 Chocolate Cookie, 3/1 ML (Pletcher/I.Ortiz)

Best value: Race 10 - #12 Abaan, 6/1 ML (Pletcher/Saez)

[moses]

Friday August 13th

Best bet: Race 9 - #3 Bon Raison, 8/1 ML (Sisterson/Vargas). I missed out on Lexitonian and don’t want to miss out again. The works have been incredible and everything points to him being ready to run a big race.

Best value: Race 6 - #9 Ace Up Her Sleeve, 15/1 ML (Klesaris/Gaffalione). Pletcher’s horse is the one to beat here but I’ll take a shot on this one who Steve Klesaris ships up from Delaware after a nice workout on August 3rd.

Alternate: Race 5 - #5 Lia Marina, 5/1 ML (Clement/Rosario)

With two 2nd places on Thursday, I now stand at…

Wagered: $136.00
Returned: $74.10

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Friday August 13th

Best bet: Race 9 - #3 Bon Raison, 8/1 ML (Sisterson/Vargas). I missed out on Lexitonian and don’t want to miss out again. The works have been incredible and everything points to him being ready to run a big race.

Best value: Race 6 - #9 Ace Up Her Sleeve, 15/1 ML (Klesaris/Gaffalione). Pletcher’s horse is the one to beat here but I’ll take a shot on this one who Steve Klesaris ships up from Delaware after a nice workout on August 3rd.

Alternate: Race 5 - #5 Lia Marina, 5/1 ML (Clement/Rosario)

With two 2nd places on Thursday, I now stand at…

Wagered: $136.00
Returned: $74.10

Not even close.

Wagered: $144.00
Returned: $74.10

Saturday August 14th

Best bet: Race 6 - #12 Major General, 6/1 ML (AE) (Pletcher/Rosario)

Best value: Race 3 - #3 Tapaloof, 20/1 ML (Kimmel/Davis)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Not even close.

Wagered: $144.00
Returned: $74.10

Saturday August 14th

Best bet: Race 6 - #12 Major General, 6/1 ML (AE) (Pletcher/Rosario)

Best value: Race 3 - #3 Tapaloof, 20/1 ML (Kimmel/Davis)

Major General is not going to make it in so I’ll go with Raging Bull in the Fourstardave as my best bet.