Next Big Stallion? What is your opinion?

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

Yes, you obviously take a HUGE risk in buying a yearling over a two year old in training. The advantage is that (if you know what you're looking at), you can sometimes get a horse for a lot cheaper than if you bought them as two year olds. Another advantage in yearling purchases for me is that you know that since they haven't been run, you break them and train them however you like. Horses have memories similar to elephants... they remember EVERYTHING and if they are broken the wrong way or started wrong, they don't run as well in the long run. Obviously, you're correct that you can't determine the run and heart of a yearling, but technically, you can't really see that until a horse runs in a race anyway.

So whats your fascination with nostrils? I'm serious. What do large nostrils in young animals indicate to you?

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by pgardn

So whats your fascination with nostrils? I'm serious. What do large nostrils in young animals indicate to you?

The larger the nostrils in a thoroughbred, the more air they're inhaling and the more air they are inhaling, the better their lungs can work. If they're breathing good, they're going to run faster and longer without tiring.

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

How they look conformation wise has a HUGE affect on how they run. I won't buy any horse that doesn't have a sloping shoulder, large nostrils and straight legs.

I misread your quote, I was going to say it makes no sense at all to me not to love big nostrils. Sorry. Big flaring nostrils it is.

[Scav]

the next big stallion.....ME!!!

[LARHAGE]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I agree with Jessica about Orientate. From what I have seen at the 2 year old sales this year, Orientate's offspring look great. I think he will be the hot new sire.

I agree with Jessica as well, when the first photo's of Orientate's weanlings hit the mags I was struck by how iniform they all looked, extremely strong in the hindquarters and the set of their necks is great, they look so athletic, I see them being runners.

I also think Empire Maker will be an exciting stallion as he was very precocious for an Unbridles and I don't think we nearly saw the best of him, he would have been great on turf as well, and the pedigree is to die for.

The two I'm hoping make it big time, due to their class and heart on the track are Congaree and Medaglia d' Oro, we can sure use some warriors like those guys, I adored them both.

[Antitrust32]

I think that Point Given will be the next super stud. If Barbaro stays on the right track and can breed, he has the look of a great stallion. Also Bernardini from this crop and First Samuria could have a lot of potential. Kitten's Joy should be a good turf sire.

[slotdirt]

King Cugat is very underrated. Obviously, not the next big stallion, but definitely has potential.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by pgardn

Why dont we just carry out little breeding experiments, see how nice they look as two year olds, and never let them on the track. The industry could make it like a dog show. We could parade them around and wager on who the judges think look the nicest. Just make racing totally into breeding and conformation. That sounds fun.

Let em run for Christ sakes.

You get to watch the horses work an 1/8th or even a 1/4 of a mile at the 2 year old sales. If you know what you are looking at, you will have a very good idea as to which sires are throwing runners. You don't need to wait until they run in a race to know which ones can run.
With yearlings, you can't tell nearly as much. However, even with yearlings you can make a good educated guess as to which ones can run. Last year we bought 15 yearlings for our pinhooking business. Every single one of them could run. Every single horse worked an 1/8th of a mile in :10 and change. Actually, there was one horse that worked :11 flat. That's pretty darn good. Basically every horse could run a little and some of them could run a lot.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

You get to watch the horses work an 1/8th or even a 1/4 of a mile at the 2 year old sales. If you know what you are looking at, you will have a very good idea as to which sires are throwing runners. You don't need to wait until they run in a race to know which ones can run.
With yearlings, you can't tell nearly as much. However, even with yearlings you can make a good educated guess as to which ones can run. Last year we bought 15 yearlings for our pinhooking business. Every single one of them could run. Every single horse worked an 1/8th of a mile in :10 and change. Actually, there was one horse that worked :11 flat. That's pretty darn good. Basically every horse could run a little and some of them could run a lot.

A lot of thoroughbreds can run... it's how they perform in a race that sets apart the good ones and the bad ones. I had an appendix (he was my showjumper) that could beat my sister's thoroughbred (off the track, stakes winner of $100,000) up to a mile, but he had a herd mentality and would freak out if he got too far ahead of the others. To me, it takes an actual race or at the very least, a good 6 furlong work with 3 or 4 other horses to see how a horse really performs. Sometimes the most talented animals don't have it in them to actually win the races. JMO.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Cajungator26

A lot of thoroughbreds can run... it's how they perform in a race that sets apart the good ones and the bad ones. I had an appendix (he was my showjumper) that could beat my sister's thoroughbred (off the track, stakes winner of $100,000) up to a mile, but he had a herd mentality and would freak out if he got too far ahead of the others. To me, it takes an actual race or at the very least, a good 6 furlong work with 3 or 4 other horses to see how a horse really performs. Sometimes the most talented animals don't have it in them to actually win the races. JMO.

I'm obviously not going be able to tell you exactly what a horse will accomplish in his career based on an 1/8th of a mile work. There's no way to do that. I'm not trying to do that. I am trying to pick out stakes horses and if I'm right around 35% of the time, then I'm doing really well. I would expect all the horses I pick to be able to run. I would estimate that around 70% of the horses I pick will be able to break their maiden in their first couple of starts unless they are horses that look like they want to run really long.

[Cajungator26]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm obviously not going be able to tell you exactly what a horse will accomplish in his career based on an 1/8th of a mile work. There's no way to do that. I'm not trying to do that. I am trying to pick out stakes horses and if I'm right around 35% of the time, then I'm doing really well. I would expect all the horses I pick to be able to run. I would estimate that around 70% of the horses I pick will be able to break their maiden in their first couple of starts unless they are horses that look like they want to run really long.

That makes complete sense. Thanks for the input.

[disappearingdan_akaplaya]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

No I don't see your point and frankly I don't like your tone either. I think my opinion is as informed as any on here. Let's say I've watched most every major race for the past 15 years. So I'll leave the 80's to others but I've also seen many of the major figures from races during that time period as well, and I'm aware of their numbers vs. runners of the past few years.

Apparently you forget that he had an injury in September while training for the Breeders Cup. At least he beat older, did it on both turf and dirt and had a something like a 8 race 4yr old campaign if I remember correctly.

Have I ever said Bellamy Road was anything than a 1 race horse? Mineshaft followed that number up with 3 more negative numbers in the low to mid negatives. He was hardly a one race wonder. But again, I'm not here to convince you. There are people who've been around a hell of a lot longer than me who think he is right there as well.

LMFAO you dont like my tone huh? you really buy the injury BS dont you randy? they knew the horse wouldnt go to anita and win the BCC and they didnt wanna risk tarnishing the horse and god forbid run against a full field lol! but thats ok this is something you and i have been at odds at for years and will never change

Originally Posted by disappearingdan_akaplaya

LMFAO you dont like my tone huh? you really buy the injury BS dont you randy? they knew the horse wouldnt go to anita and win the BCC and they didnt wanna risk tarnishing the horse and god forbid run against a full field lol! but thats ok this is something you and i have been at odds at for years and will never change

Playa you are right, the horse wasn't ever going to go there. Its because he had a HOY on the line and the Cali tracks are incredibly hard to ship to and win on from the East. I mean look what he did the rest ofthe year? So because he didn't ship there(on a day when Cali horses dominated, gee what a shock, why dont they do that anyplace else?) that means he didn't do what he did?

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by LARHAGE

I agree with Jessica as well, when the first photo's of Orientate's weanlings hit the mags I was struck by how iniform they all looked, extremely strong in the hindquarters and the set of their necks is great, they look so athletic, I see them being runners.

I also think Empire Maker will be an exciting stallion as he was very precocious for an Unbridles and I don't think we nearly saw the best of him, he would have been great on turf as well, and the pedigree is to die for.

The two I'm hoping make it big time, due to their class and heart on the track are Congaree and Medaglia d' Oro, we can sure use some warriors like those guys, I adored them both.

Go check out some of Orientate's two year olds in training at barretts.com and the Keeneland sales. Watch the babies fly! They are incredibly precocious and beautiful moving animals too.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Go check out some of Orientate's two year olds in training at barretts.com and the Keeneland sales. Watch the babies fly! They are incredibly precocious and beautiful moving animals too.

his first winner placed in a small listed stake recently--can't remember where though. Name is Lost On Champagne (she's a looker too)

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Go check out some of Orientate's two year olds in training at barretts.com and the Keeneland sales. Watch the babies fly! They are incredibly precocious and beautiful moving animals too.

For another $20K you can get Afleet Alex on the same farm. Not impressed with Orientates on the track right now.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

For another $20K you can get Afleet Alex on the same farm. Not impressed with Orientates on the track right now.

May I ask why not?

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

May I ask why not?

I am just not a believer in them being anything but sprinters. He had arguably the best mares out there and I just thought they would be a little more impressive. I probably set the expectations too high on him but he will always be nothing more than a sprinter to me. I probably will eat my words on this one next year when they turn 3, but I still am not a believer.

[paisjpq]

Originally Posted by Hoisttheflag

I am just not a believer in them being anything but sprinters. He had arguably the best mares out there and I just thought they would be a little more impressive. I probably set the expectations too high on him but he will always be nothing more than a sprinter to me. I probably will eat my words on this one next year when they turn 3, but I still am not a believer.

but in breeding the conventional logic is that stamina influence comes from the dam, so it will depend what is bred to him. They may not have classic winning distance in them but there is no reason that he can't get good milers.

Originally Posted by paisjpq

but in breeding the conventional logic is that stamina influence comes from the dam, so it will depend what is bred to him. They may not have classic winning distance in them but there is no reason that he can't get good milers.

I don't know how true that is if you really looked closely at it. Depending on my mares, I would be more inclined to save the $7500 and go with Honour & Glory. I want to see how that Orientate colt out of the Storm Cat mare Contrive pans out. I still think they will be sprinters but I could be wrong.