Tips/Thoughts on Breeders' Cup tickets this year?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

You were right Phil, Dynaforce ran poorly yesterday. The only consolation for me was she was 14/1 overlay.

ground was too firm for her. i said in a selections thread that she wouldn't like it.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

So we have a race where the winner, the 2nd horse, and the 4th horse were, respectively, 7th, 8th, and 9th, in a 10 horse field, with the 10th horse badly outrun, YET, the consensus is that the only horse that ran early and finished with them GOT A BETTER SETUP.

The winner got the best setup of the top 4, as she RAN LAST. In other words, AFTER WaW had made her wide bid on the turn, AFTER Visit, who was behind FT to the turn, made that sharp move INTO the fastest fractions, and AFTER SH, who was also behind the winner, made her run.

As for Sealy Hill, I used her last out in exactas with Callwood Dancer, as they both had ridiculous trips in the Canadian S. She wasn't a mystery, she just happened to make the 2nd to last run in a race that fell apart. In fact, if she had a clear run, like the winner, she's probably a lot closer.

Even before the race I didn't like the 2 pace setters Folk Opera and Halfway to Heaven, a comment by O'Brien I thought was very curious as he said before the race she had gotten 3 excellent & cagey rides in her 3 wire to wire wins in gr.1 co. indicated to me her form is somewhat dressed up, and her odds in those races would seem to say this. Folk Opera had a ridiculous trip in her last and really hasn't been much more than a gr.2 filly in europe this yr. I don't think too much can be read that these 2 fillies faded, I will say this Wait A While looked like the winner sitting 3rd after watching the 2 leaders duel, yes she was a bit wide but Forever Together was wide also. Wait A While just didn't kick on, and that seems like the norm for some of Todd's horses this year.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

ground was too firm for her. i said in a selections thread that she wouldn't like it.

I'm not going to make any excuses, it was dissapointing. I did think she could be closer to the pace. But who knows, her race in the Diana was on firm ground I might add.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by CSC

I'm not going to make any excuses, it was dissapointing. I did think she could be closer to the pace. But who knows, her race in the Diana was on firm ground I might add.

not making an excuse for her, turfers can be pretty picky about their ground. i think a lot of people tend to ignore whether it was firm, good etc. and my pps show the diana was on good. the new yorker was on firm-but i don't know that a firm belmont surface is = to a firm santa anita surface. and a good sara to me would not equate to a good santa anita surface. i read somewhere that firm on all tracks isn't necessarily interchangable. it's why i took a stand against her.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by fpsoxfan

Bailey, looking at the same angle we looked at, even declared Heart Shaped the winner of the Juvy Filly Turf.

yeah, but bailey is an idiot. i wish they'd take his yellow arrows away.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Forever Together is a very nice filly and she'll probably be as good or better down the road, if she's not already. But Wait a While was best today --- by a lot. What a shame that Johnny V screwed up YET ANOTHER race. A truly courageous run WASTED.

I've posed this before: 'how the **** does he have the nerve to face the connections after that ride"?

Disagree- WaW ran her race, and wasn't good enough. She ran well, Johnny V maybe moved a little early but Forever Together would have mowed her down either way- Leparoux really never asked her for her best. Whether she was better than Sealy Hill is certainly debatable, although the run Sealy Hill put in when clear was impressive.

The pace was moderate but it was destructive because it was pretty contested. Then again, the Euro shipper was coming out of a frontrunning mile race so it's no real shocker she packed it in at the quarter pole...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Danzig

not making an excuse for her, turfers can be pretty picky about their ground. i think a lot of people tend to ignore whether it was firm, good etc. and my pps show the diana was on good. the new yorker was on firm-but i don't know that a firm belmont surface is = to a firm santa anita surface. and a good sara to me would not equate to a good santa anita surface. i read somewhere that firm on all tracks isn't necessarily interchangable. it's why i took a stand against her.

You are correct the form did list The Diana as good that day, which is why I look at the final times and not just listings, I find the rating of turf courses very subjective. Let's agree that the final time of 1:46 and change for 1 1/8 indicates there was not much cut in the ground that day.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

Disagree- WaW ran her race, and wasn't good enough. She ran well, Johnny V maybe moved a little early but Forever Together would have mowed her down either way- Leparoux really never asked her for her best. Whether she was better than Sealy Hill is certainly debatable, although the run Sealy Hill put in when clear was impressive.

The pace was moderate but it was destructive because it was pretty contested. Then again, the Euro shipper was coming out of a frontrunning mile race so it's no real shocker she packed it in at the quarter pole...

It seems we need to rehash this. Does FT WIN if she makes the 1st move with WaW and Visit? Does FT win if she moves when SH did? Probably not as the 'pace' at that point was pretty hot.

My point here is not that WaW is better than the winner (in general) but rather that if she gets a decent trip, in this case, doesn't move EARLY, she's in position to withstand the closers. By waiting and forcing the OTHER closers (other than Visit) to move with/before her she dulls their kick. A more patient jock gets her this trip.

Not putting this on you, but why is this so difficult to understand? The winner is a very nice horse, certainly the best in the race (though before yesterday, her ability to get 10F was in question) but she also got a very nice trip, having the benefit of running AFTER everyone else. This was a 'flow' race: moving too soon spelled doom for WaW and Visit and, to a lesser extent SH. Would think that this would be evident to some others as well.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

It seems we need to rehash this. Does FT WIN if she makes the 1st move with WaW and Visit? Does FT win if she moves when SH did? Probably not as the 'pace' at that point was pretty hot.

My point here is not that WaW is better than the winner (in general) but rather that if she gets a decent trip, in this case, doesn't move EARLY, she's in position to withstand the closers. By waiting and forcing the OTHER closers (other than Visit) to move with/before her she dulls their kick. A more patient jock gets her this trip.

Not putting this on you, but why is this so difficult to understand? The winner is a very nice horse, certainly the best in the race (though before yesterday, her ability to get 10F was in question) but she also got a very nice trip, having the benefit of running AFTER everyone else. This was a 'flow' race: moving too soon spelled doom for WaW and Visit and, to a lesser extent SH. Would think that this would be evident to some others as well.

No question- you never know till they do it, like the Derby. Although I think I laid out reasonable arguments pre-race why 10F was certainly within her scope...

Visit is tough to use in the argument because I'm pretty sure she isn't half the filly of WaW or FT. I think WaW runs a clear second if she waits a little longer. FT ran the final 4F in a fantastic <:46 flat and the final quarter in :22 4/5. We've been watching Wait a While for a long time- we know for SURE she cannot do that, if she had moved at the same time as FT. It's difficult to me to understand why anyone would say Wait a While was much the best in a race after we know so much about her?

Leparoux gave her a masterful ride, no doubt, and rode her like he had a ton of horse.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

No question- you never know till they do it, like the Derby. Although I think I laid out reasonable arguments pre-race why 10F was certainly within her scope...

Visit is tough to use in the argument because I'm pretty sure she isn't half the filly of WaW or FT. I think WaW runs a clear second if she waits a little longer. FT ran the final 4F in a fantastic <:46 flat and the final quarter in :22 4/5. We've been watching Wait a While for a long time- we know for SURE she cannot do that, if she had moved at the same time as FT.

Leparoux gave her a masterful ride, no doubt, and rode her like he had a ton of horse.

While her close was certainly impressive, I would argue that Visits 3F burst from 6 to 9F was even more impressive. Look at the chart, when Visit, WaW and SH are moving into the pace, FT is taking a breather.

No doubt there aren't many fillies that can finish with her. But if she had to run EARLIER, like the others did, she wouldn't have had that strong a late burst.

Once again, this isn't about WaW being better than her but more about WaW losing an opportunity (and the winner getting the better trip).

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

While her close was certainly impressive, I would argue that Visits 3F burst from 6 to 9F was even more impressive. Look at the chart, when Visit, WaW and SH are moving into the pace, FT is taking a breather.

No doubt there aren't many fillies that can finish with her. But if she had to run EARLIER, like the others did, she wouldn't have had that strong a late burst.

Once again, this isn't about WaW being better than her but more about WaW losing an opportunity (and the winner getting the better trip).

I thought she was the winner by open lengths at that point.

[Kasept]

Vet scratch...

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Vet scratch...

I'm all out of tears. Can only cry so much.

[philcski]

Vet scratch, eh?

I'll refrain from speaking my mind on this one.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by philcski

Vet scratch, eh?

I'll refrain from speaking my mind on this one.

"It's a 50k claimer...But I turn my wrench....baby 1..2...3....Look, look e here... it's a Breeders Cup Winner!!"

[Pedigree Ann]

Euros yesterday

Sprint - no Euros, although Ventura started her career over there. Lady Sprinter is a South American

Li'l Babes on Grass -April Pride, placed in a G3
Beyond our Reach, placed in a G1 on soft ground
Heart Shaped, won a listed race on good (firmish) ground,
2 lengths 4th in G2, 4 lengths 4th in a G1 on good

Li'l Babes -Pursuit of Glory, 3rd in a 6f G1 on good, won on Poly for maiden

Turf (10f) - Visit, never run past 8f, longest win at 7f
Halfway to Heaven -most work at 8f, won 10f G1 at Goodwood
Folk Opera - has run well up to 14f by leading on slow pace

Classic - Cocoa Beach is a Chilean who ran in Dubai, not a EUro

So that makes 7 Euros, but only two whose failure was unexpected - Pursuit of Glory, who was hung outside in the 11 post, and Halfway to Heaven, a 3yo facing her elders, but not for the first time.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

"It's a 50k claimer...But I turn my wrench....baby 1..2...3....Look, look e here... it's a Breeders Cup Winner!!"

Pretty much my thoughts.

[ELA]

You can't help but root for the Mig!!! I don't care who you bet on. His first ever Breeders Cup victory -- and this guy deserves it!!!

Wow! I am really happy for Richard. Congratulations to one of the true good guys of this sport.

Eric

[SCUDSBROTHER]

F It...do A Dance. That's the reason a lot of people hate the Breeders Cup. Horse never has beaten this quality stuff. CASH BON FIRE, BUT WE'RE HAPPY MIG IS HAPPY...Woo Hoo!!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

was a hooves value play.