3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Remember, I just threw out the comment "She would get slaughtered in the Derby", and then the **** flinging started. I was not insulting anybody.

Did I overreact to what Hockey said? Yeah, I suppose I did, but he's been sort of a little bitch at me lately, so I gave him some crap back.

And, if I did own that filly, I would very much think she was a bad fit for the Derby.

As bad as you think the Derby preps have been, the fillies have been much worse. It's not even close in my eyes.

I'm not even sure I'd agree with you that those Derby preps were as bad as you say. For starters, I don't count the Spiral and the Sunland race as legit preps. The Illinois Derby? I'd probably dismiss that as well.

You count the Wood twice. Did you mean to say the Gotham, or maybe the FOY? Regardless, I thought the SA Derby turned out to be a better race than I expected (after the scratch of PP anyways). The Fla Derby was overhyped, which leaves us with the Wood.

While obviously I am disappointed with the result, looking at the race objectively, I think the first two finishers ran much better than anyone expected.

These prep races were, as a whole, not what we were all hoping for, but man, there've been much worse in recent years.

The fillies are far from a deep group, but her individual performances have been very solid.

You really think the Wood this year was better than any of the last four runnings? The performance of the winner this year was vastly inferior to that of the last four winners. The field quality was horrible. The SA Derby is a tough one to compare because this was the first running on dirt in four years. This year's Fla Derby was overrated before and after. It compares VERY poorly to the 2008 and 2009 runnings and I don't think Dialed In ran any better than Ice Box did last year.

The preps have been atrocious. If the only one we can be mildly excited about is a SA Derby where a distance-challenged son of Bwana Charlie was run down by a last out maiden winner then that's not saying much IMO.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I think when this whole Derby thing is over, you two should get an apartment together. Name that movie.

"Anchorman"

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

This is the problem with this entire thread, which I was dumb enough to read all of. You're taking your opinion and then insulting anyone who disagrees with it. You think she'd be a bad fit, some have disagreed, it's perfectly OK for there to be differing viewpoints.

There's something that needs to be mentioned in every discussion on this message board about the Derby. We have just been treated to seven of the worst Derby preps in the last 20 years. There has been very, very little to like about any of them (Wood-Spiral-Sunland Derby-Fla Derby-Wood-Ill Derby-SA Derby). In that time period there was a pretty damn good performance by a filly.

There are plenty of factors that go into whether she could be competitive in the Derby. They should be weighed by her connections. No one is saying she should go or would be a great fit, but hell, there's no way I'd completely dismiss it if I owned her.

I would take the top 3 in the Santa Anita Derby this year '09 (Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff) '08 (Colonel John (maybe), Bob Black Jack, Coast Guard) and 07 (Tiago, King of the Roxy, Sam P.)

I would say this year's Wood Memorial is even with Tale of Ekati's.

Dialed In's Florida Derby over '10 (Ice Box, Pleasant Prince, Rules) and '07 (Scat Daddy, Notional, Chelokee)

I'm in the minority, but I don't think this year has been as bad as the rest of you do.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by robfla

"Anchorman"

Correct. And Ron Burgundy is picking Sway Away in the Arkansas derby this weekend. He's been high in him since he saw him in the Best Pal Stakes at Del Mar last summer.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I would take the top 3 in the Santa Anita Derby this year '09 (Pioneerof the Nile, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff) '08 (Colonel John (maybe), Bob Black Jack, Coast Guard) and 07 (Tiago, King of the Roxy, Sam P.)

I would say this year's Wood Memorial is even with Tale of Ekati's.

Dialed In's Florida Derby over '10 (Ice Box, Pleasant Prince, Rules) and '07 (Scat Daddy, Notional, Chelokee)

I'm in the minority, but I don't think this year has been as bad as the rest of you do.

I didn't really want to compare the synthetic SA Derbies to this one because the nature of it is so different. However, Colonel John, even at this point in his 3YO season, was worlds beyond horses like Comma to the Top and Midnight Interlude.

Tale of Ekati's Wood was run at a rapid early clip where War Pass ran out of his skin. Unfortunately, War Pass was injured and never returned. Tale of Ekati later that year won the Jerome and the Cigar Mile (via DQ). Court Vision became a GI winner on the turf later that year. Giant Moon was subsequently a graded stake winner. Spurrier is multiple graded stakes placed. Roman Emperor returned to win the Barbaro, defeating subsequent Belmont winner Da' Tara in the process.

The 2008 Wood was much better than this year's in my opinion.

This year's preps have lacked a single performance that compares favorably to even the worst running of that given race in recent memory. The preps have been incredibly underwhelming to me, that's why the Derby is going to be such a ridiculous mad scramble, even more so than normal.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I didn't really want to compare the synthetic SA Derbies to this one because the nature of it is so different. However, Colonel John, even at this point in his 3YO season, was worlds beyond horses like Comma to the Top and Midnight Interlude.

Tale of Ekati's Wood was run at a rapid early clip where War Pass ran out of his skin. Unfortunately, War Pass was injured and never returned. Tale of Ekati later that year won the Jerome and the Cigar Mile (via DQ). Court Vision became a GI winner on the turf later that year. Giant Moon was subsequently a graded stake winner. Spurrier is multiple graded stakes placed. Roman Emperor returned to win the Barbaro, defeating subsequent Belmont winner Da' Tara in the process.

The 2008 Wood was much better than this year's in my opinion.

This year's preps have lacked a single performance that compares favorably to even the worst running of that given race in recent memory. The preps have been incredibly underwhelming to me, that's why the Derby is going to be such a ridiculous mad scramble, even more so than normal.

You can't really use argument of their form after that prep.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

You can't really use argument of their form after that prep.

Then this year's Wood completely falls on its face. Between the 1-2-3 finishers in the 2008 Wood you had the defending 2YO champion who had 2 GI wins (very comparable to Uncle Mo). You had 2 GII winners from their 2YO season, (Tale of Ekati/Court Vision, who no one in this year's field compares to). You had a listed stakes winner in Giant Moon (Toby's Corner compares favorably). Anak Nakal was up the track and he was a GII winner from the prior year and Texas Wildcatter was coming off a narrow miss in the Gotham.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I think when this whole Derby thing is over, you two should get an apartment together. Name that movie.

Beauty and the Beast.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The fillies are far from a deep group, but her individual performances have been very solid.

You really think the Wood this year was better than any of the last four runnings? The performance of the winner this year was vastly inferior to that of the last four winners. The field quality was horrible. The SA Derby is a tough one to compare because this was the first running on dirt in four years. This year's Fla Derby was overrated before and after. It compares VERY poorly to the 2008 and 2009 runnings and I don't think Dialed In ran any better than Ice Box did last year.

The preps have been atrocious. If the only one we can be mildly excited about is a SA Derby where a distance-challenged son of Bwana Charlie was run down by a last out maiden winner then that's not saying much IMO.

Yeah, I'll concede all that. However, I still think that the winner of the SA Derby was probably somewhat better than your average recent maiden winner. Certainly, he's got more upside at this point than Tiago did. To me, I guess I'm trying to say, that when PP got hurt, I expected that race to be horrific. My expectations were exceeded.

Dialed In was definitely better than Ice Box to me.

He has way more upside.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Then this year's Wood completely falls on its face. Between the 1-2-3 finishers in the 2008 Wood you had the defending 2YO champion who had 2 GI wins (very comparable to Uncle Mo). You had 2 GII winners from their 2YO season, (Tale of Ekati/Court Vision, who no one in this year's field compares to). You had a listed stakes winner in Giant Moon (Toby's Corner compares favorably). Anak Nakal was up the track and he was a GII winner from the prior year and Texas Wildcatter was coming off a narrow miss in the Gotham.

I forgot such Titans of the Turf like Anak Nakal won a Graded Stakes. His 3 year old form going into the race still wasn't any better than Arthur's Tale. Tale of Ekati was much more accomplished than Toby, but his 3 year old form going into the race also was roughly even, Toby winning the Wood with a 94 Beyer off two 82s and Ekati winning with a 93 off an 84. This field still had your listed stakes winner with Preachintothedevil!

I just don't agree with you that this year's preps have been the worst in the past 20 years like you said above.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I forgot such Titans of the Turf like Anak Nakal won a Graded Stakes. His 3 year old form going into the race still wasn't any better than Arthur's Tale. Tale of Ekati was much more accomplished than Toby, but his 3 year old form going into the race also was roughly even, Toby winning the Wood with a 94 Beyer off two 82s and Ekati winning with a 93 off an 84. This field still had your listed stakes winner with Preachintothedevil!

I just don't agree with you that this year's preps taken as a whole have been the worst in the past 20 years like you said above.

I agree. If you throw out Big Brown, that crop was abysmal.

99 was just brutal.

If you don't have Afleet Alex, that crop is an all time horrible one.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I agree. If you throw out Big Brown, that crop was abysmal.

99 was just brutal.

If you don't have Afleet Alex, that crop is an all time horrible one.

Bellamy Road could run a little.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I forgot such Titans of the Turf like Anak Nakal won a Graded Stakes. His 3 year old form going into the race still wasn't any better than Arthur's Tale. Tale of Ekati was much more accomplished than Toby, but his 3 year old form going into the race also was roughly even, Toby winning the Wood with a 94 Beyer off two 82s and Ekati winning with a 93 off an 84. This field still had your listed stakes winner with Preachintothedevil!

I just don't agree with you that this year's preps have been the worst in the past 20 years like you said above.

Mock Anak Nakal all you want but you're taking up the cause for a race that had horses like Arthur's Tale, Norman Asbjornson, and Duca as the 3rd, 4th, and 5th choices. This year's running was absolutely horrendous. It doesn't need to be looked upon as some type of legitimate horse race because Uncle Mo lost.

I also said some of the worst preps, not necessarily worst. Either way, they've been bad.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Bellamy Road could run a little.

True. I always forget about that horse. And I liked him!

[Danzig]

isn't toby's corner by bellamy road? also liked bellamy, gone too soon from the racing side of things.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

isn't toby's corner by bellamy road? also liked bellamy, gone too soon from the racing side of things.

Yep. BR's Wood victory is still the most dominant performance I've ever seen live.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yep. BR's Wood victory is still the most dominant performance I've ever seen live.

And his Travers, though in defeat, was a pretty remarkable training job by Nick Zito... off a 3+ month layoff, Bellamy Road leads the entire race with fractions of :47 2/5, 1:10 4/5 and a mile in 1:36 1/5 before giving it up late to the in-form Flower Alley, who just won the Jim Dandy by 5 lengths with a 112. Bellamy Road earned a 106 in the Travers.

Flower Alley came back and ran poorly in the Gold Cup, but rebounded with a 111 runner-up in the Classic. Roman Ruler (3rd nearly 3 lengths farther back) came back and ran second in the Goodwood to Rock Hard Ten with a 111 Beyer as well.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Mock Anak Nakal all you want but you're taking up the cause for a race that had horses like Arthur's Tale, Norman Asbjornson, and Duca as the 3rd, 4th, and 5th choices. This year's running was absolutely horrendous. It doesn't need to be looked upon as some type of legitimate horse race because Uncle Mo lost.

I also said some of the worst preps, not necessarily worst. Either way, they've been bad.

Actually you said:

We have just been treated to seven of the worst Derby preps in the last 20 years.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Danzig

isn't toby's corner by bellamy road? also liked bellamy, gone too soon from the racing side of things.

Too bad he didn't get that speed instead of the big jughead!

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Actually you said:

Right. What is different about how I referenced it after saying it? I never said the seven worst Derby preps, as you have mis-quoted. I said seven OF the worst Derby preps.