1/28 (GP): $12MM Pegasus World Cup

[RHT2004]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It is a very real excuse....and exactly the one you would be using for Arrogate had the post positions been reversed.

Haven't needed an excuse for Arrogate yet and its highly unlikely I ever will. I was on him well before the Travers. Its not like he ran huge and I started to like him. I don't get you. On twitter you talk about Arrogate could be an all time great and you say things very similar to what I have said here multiple times about if Chrome couldn't beat him in the Classic w/ that setup he never will. Yet now your making excuses for the horse before the race.
When Chrome lost the Belmont didn't people say he didn't like being inside of horses. He ran better free and outside?

[taxicab]

Originally Posted by declansharbor

About what % of Eclipse Award ceremony attendees do you think were elated when the post was drawn after having to endure P Martin's whacky speech?! They're really going to have to earn it from out that far wide, that's for sure (CC & DAP Racing) !

Lol.......Perry Martin pushed up on the horse racing gods,never a good idea.
He also made history.
I've never seen 100% of the people at every single horse racing forum/message board/twitter/Facebook agree on anything.
Until.....
The disgust for Perry Martin @ the Eclipse Awards the other night.
Dude is a taco short of a combo plate.......

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

Haven't needed an excuse for Arrogate yet and its highly unlikely I ever will. I was on him well before the Travers. Its not like he ran huge and I started to like him. I don't get you. On twitter you talk about Arrogate could be an all time great and you say things very similar to what I have said here multiple times about if Chrome couldn't beat him in the Classic w/ that setup he never will. Yet now your making excuses for the horse before the race.
When Chrome lost the Belmont didn't people say he didn't like being inside of horses. He ran better free and outside?

Joey you are missing the point here. The 12th hole is brutal at this distance at Gulfstream. Something like 1 for 18 all time since they adjusted the track. Arrogate would have trouble there too.

[3kings]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Joey you are missing the point here. The 12th hole is brutal at this distance at Gulfstream. Something like 1 for 18 all time since they adjusted the track. Arrogate would have trouble there too.

He's not missing the point, he knows that Big Brown was the lone winner from the 12 post. He was touting a horse trained by Baffert early(not unusual) and he was right so he will post about it in every thread regardless of topic. This will continue until the horse retires or he is right on another Baffert horse.

Racing is the big loser here as a great match up was compromised by a poor draw. It would have been nice to see this race with both horses drawn somewhere in the middle.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by 3kings

He's not missing the point, he knows that Big Brown was the lone winner from the 12 post. He was touting a horse trained by Baffert early(not unusual) and he was right so he will post about it in every thread regardless of topic. This will continue until the horse retires or he is right on another Baffert horse.

Racing is the big loser here as a great match up was compromised by a poor draw. It would have been nice to see this race with both horses drawn somewhere in the middle.

Well said, Tom

[jms62]

In the last 2 years they ran this distance on the dirt 12 times. Ten of those races had 7 or More entries. These are the winning post positions

PP-Wins
3 -  6
5 -  3
6 -  1
7 -  2

[Alabama Stakes]

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

No.. Post 3 won half and 5-6-7 the other. Posts 1-2 won as many as post 12

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

That button must have gotten stuck in the stretch of the Bc Classic.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

So in other words the 1 thru 4 posts won half the races, and 5-6-7 won the other half ? Cal Chrome has push button speed and is posted outside. He will be wherever he wants and Espinosa will make sure he gets a good run.

However you choose to fantasize his trip, it's undeniable that he will have to travel 10-15 lengths further, minimum, than Arrogate will have to in the end.

If he pulls it off, he's cements his legacy as a horse of a lifetime; if he doesn't, it proves nothing.

That's the disappointing part. It will always be considered an asterisk on Arrogate's resume more than it will be a career-defining win.

[Pants II]

I'm boycotting Gulfstream the rest of the meet.

Hope Perry and Co. scratch.

[MaTH716]

Chrome had it all his way in the BC, while Arrogate was the one who broke from outside, ended up rating and then nailing him at the wire. I just don't see Chrome getting a better trip than he did at Santa Anita. I do think Arrogate is a monster, that being said I don't remember him ever in a position where he had to take a lot of dirt. Even in the BC, Smith kept him clear and wide. Who knows how he could react to somehow getting pinned inside.

[Pants II]

It would be different if they actually had good horses in the race but this is a field of plugs and it is entirely unacceptable for the fans.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

If he pulls it off, he's cements his legacy as a horse of a lifetime; if he doesn't, it proves nothing.

That's the disappointing part. It will always be considered an asterisk on Arrogate's resume more than it will be a career-defining win.

We've talked about how the draw will impact California Chrome, but I have also been thinking about Arrogate's draw.

I would doubt that Arrogate will drive out from the rail to challenge the front and it seems that there will be at least three or four who will push early to hang out Chrome. This puts Arrogate probably fourth or fifth early along the rail perhaps up to five lengths from the front with plenty of traffic. Somehow, he'll need to navigate off the rail and find a clear run to set up a move by the far turn, certainly not a given.

Looking at this race, I have pretty much talked myself off of both Arrogate and Chrome.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

We've talked about how the draw will impact California Chrome, but I have also been thinking about Arrogate's draw.

I would doubt that Arrogate will drive out from the rail to challenge the front and it seems that there will be at least three or four who will push early to hang out Chrome. This puts Arrogate probably fourth or fifth early along the rail perhaps up to five lengths from the front with plenty of traffic. Somehow, he'll need to navigate off the rail and find a clear run to set up a move by the far turn, certainly not a given.

Looking at this race, I have pretty much talked myself off of both Arrogate and Chrome.

I don't understand why he would be in "plenty of traffic" or, really, even any traffic. Arrogate is fast. He will leave for position. Others may outrun him, but only if it's a reasonably quick pace, which means there will be separation in the field, which means there won't be traffic. The reason we have a lot of traffic issues these days is specifically because of the constant slow paces which bunches up the fields. This does not rate to happen in the Pegasus.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by Pants II

It would be different if they actually had good horses in the race but this is a field of plugs and it is entirely unacceptable for the fans.

According to the latest Paulick Report poll with about 2000 votes :

Arrogate : 26.7%
California Chrome : 62.7%
All Others : 10.6%

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Chrome had it all his way in the BC, while Arrogate was the one who broke from outside, ended up rating and then nailing him at the wire. I just don't see Chrome getting a better trip than he did at Santa Anita. I do think Arrogate is a monster, that being said I don't remember him ever in a position where he had to take a lot of dirt. Even in the BC, Smith kept him clear and wide. Who knows how he could react to somehow getting pinned inside.

When did taking dirt, especially by experienced racehorses, suddenly become some sort of issue?

I think it may be, right now, the most misunderstood and overrated theoretical trip excuse.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ScottJ

According to the latest Paulick Report poll with about 2000 votes :

Arrogate : 26.7%
California Chrome : 62.7%
All Others : 10.6%

The very fact that almost 70% of the voters opting for one of the big two have somehow chosen CA Chrome over Arrogate shows that it is a fan's vote and not a bettors one. CA Chrome is an internet darling. This is not a criticism, this is a fact. That is really all that vote represents....save that 10% like the field, which is probably too high, but relatively fair.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The very fact that almost 70% of the voters opting for one of the big two have somehow chosen CA Chrome over Arrogate shows that it is a fan's vote and not a bettors one. CA Chrome is an internet darling. This is not a criticism, this is a fact. That is really all that vote represents....save that 10% like the field, which is probably too high, but relatively fair.

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

[jms62]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

Current Fixed Odds at Bovada

Horse             Odds
 
Arrogate          1/1  
California Chrome 5/4 
Noble Bird       20/1  
Neolithic        25/1  
Keen Ice         25/1  
Stanford         25/1 
Shaman Ghost     33/1 
Breaking Lucky   33/1  
War Story        66/1   
Eragon           66/1  
Sea Raven       100/1  
Madefromlucky   100/1  
PrayerforRelief 150/1 
Semper Fortis   150/1 
War Envoy       200/1