TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL: Probables/Possibles

[Kasept]

Instilled Regard back under Derby consideration..

The 4 current AE's

21. Combatant 32 (Winchell & Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana ($350,000)
22. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Lawrence Best) Jerry Hollendorfer ($246,000)
-- Snapper Sinclair 22 (Bloom Racing) Steve Asmussen/$321,810 ~ American Turf or Pat Day Mile
23. $-Blended Citizen 22 (Greg Hall & SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey ($159,644)
24. Reride 20 (Winchell) Steve Asmussen/$298,000

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by richard burch

not my preference,.......... boy this horse has a lot of frequent flier miles.

Well he did it before the BCJ Turf and to an even farther time zone that KY. He obviously did well in Dubai (which my googling tells me is 3 hrs difference from Ireland). Clearly being on a plane for awhile doesn't put him off. Neither does a bit of time difference.

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Well he did it before the BCJ Turf and to an even farther time zone that KY. He obviously did well in Dubai (which my googling tells me is 3 hrs difference from Ireland). Clearly being on a plane for awhile doesn't put him off. Neither does a bit of time difference.

It's about a 7.5 hour flight from Dublin to Dubai, and probably only about an hour or so more to where he'll be landing in the US. An extra 2 hours difference in time, however.

I don't remember exactly when they arrived in Dubai but it was very late (possibly Tuesday). At least on Thursday morning, I watched all Coolmore runners do a very slow walk around the track followed by a very easy jog. Don't expect to see much from him in Louisville before the race.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Well he did it before the BCJ Turf and to an even farther time zone that KY. He obviously did well in Dubai (which my googling tells me is 3 hrs difference from Ireland). Clearly being on a plane for awhile doesn't put him off. Neither does a bit of time difference.

Mendelssohn scares me. I'm sitting on a hefty "All Others" bet from Future Wager Pool 2 (and a bet 1/5 as big from Pool 3, which I've mentally kissed goodbye). With Justify and Magnum Moon, plus about 9 other Derby entrants in my Pool 2 "stable", I should be feeling pretty confident. But there's no telling how good Mendelssohn might be, and as Merlinsky said, the horse has already shown he's a good shipper. I don't see how people can leave him off their exotics tickets simply because less accomplished Dubai invaders have failed in the past.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Well he did it before the BCJ Turf and to an even farther time zone that KY. He obviously did well in Dubai (which my googling tells me is 3 hrs difference from Ireland). Clearly being on a plane for awhile doesn't put him off. Neither does a bit of time difference.

I'm sticking with him. Just hope he gets a good post.

[Merlinsky]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Mendelssohn scares me. I'm sitting on a hefty "All Others" bet from Future Wager Pool 2 (and a bet 1/5 as big from Pool 3, which I've mentally kissed goodbye). With Justify and Magnum Moon, plus about 9 other Derby entrants in my Pool 2 "stable", I should be feeling pretty confident. But there's no telling how good Mendelssohn might be, and as Merlinsky said, the horse has already shown he's a good shipper. I don't see how people can leave him off their exotics tickets simply because less accomplished Dubai invaders have failed in the past.

Yeah Mendelssohn's not the same as the other attempted conquerors, and if people just use past UAE Derby stats, it's misleading. With his obvious ability and with that breeding it's a potential coronation waiting to happen. If he wins he might not walk back to the barn, they might carry him. Now you can say the same with Justify really. There's an opportunity to see something special from multiple horses. This year's so packed with good ones I might be rooting for any other time, and I'll still be happy if they make it. Seems to be a really nice crop. Even the ones who can't get the distance can easily be heard from in the future. Magnum Moon and Audible have to show me that, not only can they get 10 furlongs, they can do it in a relatively straight line.

Hopefully the stretch is full of horses not banging into each other. We don't need any DQ's.

[richard burch]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Yeah Mendelssohn's not the same as the other attempted conquerors, and if people just use past UAE Derby stats, it's misleading. With his obvious ability and with that breeding it's a potential coronation waiting to happen. If he wins he might not walk back to the barn, they might carry him. Now you can say the same with Justify really. There's an opportunity to see something special from multiple horses. This year's so packed with good ones I might be rooting for any other time, and I'll still be happy if they make it. Seems to be a really nice crop. Even the ones who can't get the distance can easily be heard from in the future. Magnum Moon and Audible have to show me that, not only can they get 10 furlongs, they can do it in a relatively straight line.

Hopefully the stretch is full of horses not banging into each other. We don't need any DQ's.

Have we had any recently? Can't recall.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

Hopefully the stretch is full of horses not banging into each other. We don't need any DQ's.

Originally Posted by richard burch

[/b][/i]
Have we had any recently? Can't recall.

I worry more about a disaster at the first turn. 20 horses are trying to get a position that does not leave them either hopelessly outside or, especially in the case of the inside 3 or 4, squeezed back behind a wall of flying dirt. And with so much at stake, the riders are likely to take chances. I hold my breath every year.

IMO, the entries should be reduced to 14. It would make it a little more likely that the best horse would win the race. More importantly, it would make a catastrophic event much less likely.

Here are the horses that would not have made the race this year, had the limit been 14:

15. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado ($597,200)
16. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham ($273,347)
17. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. ($192,000)
18. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez ($647,500)
19. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana ($350,000)
20. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Joel Rosario ($246,000)

Do these horses belong in a race that includes Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible, Bolt D'Oro, Magnum Moon, Good Magic, and the rest of the top 9 or 10 point earners? Sure, one or more of horses 15-20 could make a big jump forward and finish in the top 5 of the Derby, but the downside far outweighs that slim possibility, IMO.

[tector]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I worry more about a disaster at the first turn. 20 horses are trying to get a position that does not leave them either hopelessly outside or, especially in the case of the inside 3 or 4, squeezed back behind a wall of flying dirt. And with so much at stake, the riders are likely to take chances. I hold my breath every year.

IMO, the entries should be reduced to 14. It would make it a little more likely that the best horse would win the race. More importantly, it would make a catastrophic event much less likely.

Here are the horses that would not have made the race this year, had the limit been 14:

15. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado ($597,200)
16. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham ($273,347)
17. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. ($192,000)
18. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez ($647,500)
19. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana ($350,000)
20. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Joel Rosario ($246,000)

Do these horses belong in a race that includes Justify, Mendelssohn, Audible, Bolt D'Oro, Magnum Moon, Good Magic, and the rest of the top 9 or 10 point earners? Sure, one or more of horses 15-20 could make a big jump forward and finish in the top 5 of the Derby, but the downside far outweighs that slim possibility, IMO.

There are many people who like one of thoses horses (at least 15, 16, 17) to hit the board. Beyond that, would Giacomo or Mind That Bird have made the filed at 14?

Traffic on the first turn is a legit concern, but less so in a race with real pace--they string out in time with pace. And most years there is enough pace to avoid that.

Aside from the Debty (20) and Preakness (16), are there other stakes races in the US or Canada run with bigger fields than 14? My old brain refuses to remember.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by tector

Aside from the Debty (20) and Preakness (16), are there other stakes races in the US or Canada run with bigger fields than 14? My old brain refuses to remember.

The Preakness is limited to 14.

[richard burch]

The 20 horses is what makes it special regardless of their chances. I think most of them have some effect on the race be it bumping, pace pressure, positioning....

[Kasept]

5/5/18 ~ Kentucky Derby (1 1/4M) Churchill Downs

1. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez (50-1)
2. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado (30-1)
3. Promises Fulfilled 52 (Robert Baron) Dale Romans/Corey Lanarie (30-1)
4. Flameaway-$ 70 (John Oxley) Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano (30-1)
5. Audible 110 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano (8-1)
6. Good Magic 134 (e Five, Stonestreet) Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz (12-1)
7. Justify 100 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith (3-1)
8. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham (50-1)
9. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. (20-1)
10. My Boy Jack 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife, Monomoy) Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux (30-1)
11. Bolt d’Oro 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza (8-1)
12. Enticed 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado (30-1)
13. Bravazo 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras (50-1)
14. Mendelssohn 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore (5-1)
15. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke (50-1)
16. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana & Robert Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez (6-1)
17. Solomini 54 (Zayat Stables, Coolmore) Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat (30-1)
18. Vino Rosso 107 (Repole, St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez (12-1)
19. Noble Indy 110 (WinStar, Repole) Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux (12-1)
20. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana (30-1)
AE-21. Blended Citizen-$ 22 (Greg Hall, SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey (50-1)

[casp0555]

16. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana & Robert Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez (6-1)

perfect....

[cal828]

Originally Posted by casp0555

16. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana & Robert Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez (6-1)

perfect....

Should be perfect for Justify, if he is what Baffert and everyone says he is and if he can get out of the gate without issues. Should be able to set up shop right behind the two likely front runners and avoid all the traffic problems everyone is worried about.

[Mike]

I like seeing Promises Fulfilled and Flameaway inside, hopefully
they set a torrid pace

[Kasept]

5/19/18 ~ Preakness Stakes (1 3/16M) Pimlico

Justify (Baffert)
Bravazo (Lukas)
Sporting Chance (Lukas)
Diamond King (Jo. Servis)
Tenfold (Asmussen)
Quip (Brisset)

Lone Sailor (Amoss)
Good Magic (Brown)

[cakes44]

I’d be really surprised to see Good Magic. If he ends up in there, it would have to be because he’s doing unbelievable.

[RHT2004]

At this point Justify feels more likely to win the Triple Crown then any horse i can remember. Based on his expected competition and his performances up to this point.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

At this point Justify feels more likely to win the Triple Crown then any horse i can remember. Based on his expected competition and his performances up to this point.

Lots could happen. First has to make all three races. Preakness is looking weak so he should be fine if ready. Belmont will be tougher then people expect. Hope the fitness will be there.

[moses]

Originally Posted by cakes44

I’d be really surprised to see Good Magic. If he ends up in there, it would have to be because he’s doing unbelievable.

If there is a weak field, which it seems like they may be headed that way, he’s a strong contender to end up in the money. Assuming he’s doing ok.