Barclay Tagg's comments on NoBiz

[Danzig]

i don't think tagg is making a mistake at all. i think nobiz doesn't fit in either turf race, and i see no reason to run him in the classic. he runs better on turf, tagg said he has run down issues when on dirt.

everyone talks about trainers being too ambitious with spotting, or not running often enough. neither apply here.
tagg has a race in mind, at the ideal distance for his horse. what's wrong with that? not all bc races fit all horses, this being one of them.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I wasn't as familiar with Awesome Gem's PPs, so I didn't include him -- but I guess you're right. He's probably a faster 10f dirt horse too. Make that ten.

Zanjero is capable of running a figure in the triple digits. Diamond Stripes has run more than one. Nobiz has proven capable of running in the very low 100s on his better days, at his best distances, on dirt.

So really, anyone who can run a figure of 102 on dirt can compete with Nobiz And Student Council has run a 99 and a 97, both at a mile and a quarter, which put him within a few points of Nobiz's better dirt Beyers. I'm hardly saying that Student Council is a legit contender to take the BC Classic, but he just about equally as unlikely as Nobiz would have been.

and student council may well go to japan rather than the bc. perhaps they think he has a better shot there.
now if only more people would make these kinds of decisions with their supposed derby horses.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

I wasn't as familiar with Awesome Gem's PPs, so I didn't include him -- but I guess you're right. He's probably a faster 10f dirt horse too. Make that ten.

Zanjero is capable of running a figure in the triple digits. Diamond Stripes has run more than one. Nobiz has proven capable of running in the very low 100s on his better days, at his best distances, on dirt.

So really, anyone who can run a figure of 102 on dirt can compete with Nobiz And Student Council has run a 99 and a 97, both at a mile and a quarter, which put him within a few points of Nobiz's better dirt Beyers. I'm hardly saying that Student Council is a legit contender to take the BC Classic, but he just about equally as unlikely as Nobiz would have been.

So we are basically agreeing then. You are acknowledging that once you get past what I call the Big Four, Nobiz fits right in with the rest of them. And it's worth keeping in mind that when Nobiz was running his best dirt figures, it was early in the year. I don't think it's too outrageous to think that there is a possibility that he's a better horse now than he was in the spring.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

So we are basically agreeing then. You are acknowledging that once you get past what I call the Big Four, Nobiz fits right in with the rest of them. And it's worth keeping in mind that when Nobiz was running his best dirt figures, it was early in the year. I don't think it's too outrageous to think that there is a possibility that he's a better horse now than he was in the spring.

Possibility? Sure. Likely? Nah. We're talking about a horse that has barely developed a step figure-wise throughout his career, and that's exactly what made him somewhat of a bust on the Triple Crown trail. I find it hard to believe that he'd develop more in three months of racing (last on dirt in July, getting smacked by Any Given Saturday) than he did through his first 10.

When you have a valuable and talented, if unspectacular, dirt horse who may turn out to be a super turf runner, "we could possibly be the fifth fastest horse in this race" doesn't seem to me like enough justification for a Classic try.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

OK so Diamond Stripes just came up with a 105 while beating Xchanger by less than a length in the Meadowlands Cup. So I guess now Xchanger is faster than Nobiz. Student Council sure did look faster running that 97 figure in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, proving that the slow time and figure of the Pacific Classic wasn't a fluke. Zanjero is faster? How do u say Tiago is faster but maybe Awesome Gem is slower when Awesome Gem just lost by a nose to Tiago? Either u think they are both faster or both maybe slower.

The other poster mentioned Fairbanks, Master Command, Political Force and Grasshopper. Apparently he missed Grasshopper's run in Louisiana. I don't know if the other three are even pointed to the race and even if they are, none of them have ever shown the consistency to make u believe that they are going to throw up their best race. Nobiz might not be the fifth or sixth best horse. But if he's truly improved as a racehorse and it's not just the grass, there is no way that I'd say that those horses that have been named are proven better than him.

Unless they really feel like he doesn't want 10f on dirt and that his improvement is strictly a result of the switch to grass, I don't think taking a shot is a bad idea.

So one 93 Beyer offsets the fact that Grasshopper has two Beyers higher than anything Nobiz has run? What is Nobiz's high Beyer on the dirt, like a 98? So his best day can beat Grasshopper's worst by 3 lengths. Plus Grasshopper has his best figure at 10 furlongs.

This thread is insane. Looney Tunes.

That's all folks.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

So we are basically agreeing then. You are acknowledging that once you get past what I call the Big Four, Nobiz fits right in with the rest of them. And it's worth keeping in mind that when Nobiz was running his best dirt figures, it was early in the year. I don't think it's too outrageous to think that there is a possibility that he's a better horse now than he was in the spring.

No, we are not agreeing. Diamond Stripes is faster than Nobiz. Tiago is faster than Nobiz, and by proxy Awesome Gem would be too.

That puts him at least ninth on paper after you get past the obvious five.

So he'd get to scrum with Zanjero and Student Council for the last-place trifecta spots in my hypothetical field.

Sounds like a perfect reason for them to send him to the Classic. He's not even in the same zip code as the types of horses who are going to fight for the win, and is quite arguably, not even a contender for a midpack finish given the likely field.

The horse is exactly as fast on dirt this year as he was in his very first start. Horses like that don't win the BC Classic because they pop some decent race on rock hard turf at Belmont.

You're getting a bit carried away. Diamond Stripes would easily beat him, and that horse's best shot is to fill out the super.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Possibility? Sure. Likely? Nah. We're talking about a horse that has barely developed a step figure-wise throughout his career, and that's exactly what made him somewhat of a bust on the Triple Crown trail. I find it hard to believe that he'd develop more in three months of racing (last on dirt in July, getting smacked by Any Given Saturday) than he did through his first 10.

When you have a valuable and talented, if unspectacular, dirt horse who may turn out to be a super turf runner, "we could possibly be the fifth fastest horse in this race" doesn't seem to me like enough justification for a Classic try.

That Nobiz wasn't developing, figure-wise, from his 2yo to his 3yo season was disturbing to me. It made me think that he wasn't going to improve at all and had reached his top level early. But I don't know if it's fair to say that he's not improving anymore based on his recent figures. Turf figures are basically useless. Granted, his last dirt figure in the Dwyer, didn't seem to indicate that he had turned any kind of corner but his last couple make me wonder. Especially this past weekend. He looked like a much better horse than I've ever seen him look. It wasn't the time or the figure but the way he ran. I don't think it would even take much improvement from where he was in the spring to put him right in the picture here and if one or more of the top ones doesn't bring his "A game", who knows? And let's be honest. Nobody is saying that Street Sense and Hard Spun don't belong and their numbers this summer don't suggest they blow Nobiz away. In fact, because SS ran a 108 in the BC Juvenile and a 111 in the Preakness before his last couple, it could also be argued that he hasn't developed either. Only in his case, he was already a little higher than Nobiz. I just don't see any reason why SS can be considered a prime contender while running a 108 in the Travers and Nobiz shouldn't even be considered.

If this was a situation where they were making a decision between the Classic and one of the other BC races, even though I think the Classic attempt would be worth taking, I could understand going in another race. But I'm not sure why running in the Classic, even if he finished dead last, would stop him from maybe becoming, as u put it, a super turf runner.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

No, we are not agreeing. Diamond Stripes is faster than Nobiz. Tiago is faster than Nobiz, and by proxy Awesome Gem would be too.

That puts him at least ninth on paper after you get past the obvious five.

So he'd get to scrum with Zanjero and Student Council for the last-place trifecta spots in my hypothetical field.

Sounds like a perfect reason for them to send him to the Classic. He's not even in the same zip code as the types of horses who are going to fight for the win, and is quite arguably, not even a contender for a midpack finish given the likely field.

The horse is exactly as fast on dirt this year as he was in his very first start. Horses like that don't win the BC Classic because they pop some decent race on rock hard turf at Belmont.

You're getting a bit carried away. Diamond Stripes would easily beat him, and that horse's best shot is to fill out the super.

You know, I'd bet that prior to this past weekend, you would have told me that Diamond Stripes would easily beat Xchanger too. Yet he was just all out to hold off that one in NJ.

The fact is that all of you that are saying Nobiz would have no shot are basing that on the fact that you believe he's no better now than he's ever been. I don't concede that as the truth. If it is the truth, then you are right. If he has improved from the spring though, his numbers would fit in with the rest of the field. I'm not arguing that he's a threat to win the race. I don't think he is. I think he rates behind the top four. Maybe that alone is reason not to look at the race if they would be going in with their best hope being third or fourth. But when that third or fourth is in the BC Classic, I can live with that.

[brianwspencer]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

You know, I'd bet that prior to this past weekend, you would have told me that Diamond Stripes would easily beat Xchanger too. Yet he was just all out to hold off that one in NJ.

The fact is that all of you that are saying Nobiz would have no shot are basing that on the fact that you believe he's no better now than he's ever been. I don't concede that as the truth. If it is the truth, then you are right. If he has improved from the spring though, his numbers would fit in with the rest of the field. I'm not arguing that he's a threat to win the race. I don't think he is. I think he rates behind the top four. Maybe that alone is reason not to look at the race if they would be going in with their best hope being third or fourth. But when that third or fourth is in the BC Classic, I can live with that.

That's fine. We're obviously thinking very differently about things.

By the way, when you now say "top four" which of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, or Any Given Saturday are you insinuating that he is ahead of? Ask pretty much anyone, and he's not even in the same league as those guys.

You think he's fifth or sixth best on paper and capable of bring "third or fourth". I think that's a pipe dream and that he maybe gets the better of Student Council.

Good thing he's not going. It might have been hard for you to look back at this thread after he got abused through furlongs number nine and ten.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Pillow Pants

This thread is insane. Looney Tunes.

That's all folks.

amen to that. i thought i was the only one who thought this thread makes no sense.

i've seen some of morty's threads that left me less perplexed!

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

If this was a situation where they were making a decision between the Classic and one of the other BC races, even though I think the Classic attempt would be worth taking, I could understand going in another race. But I'm not sure why running in the Classic, even if he finished dead last, would stop him from maybe becoming, as u put it, a super turf runner.

I'd say that the Classic would be pretty strenuous and require more rigorous training than perhaps, training up to the Hollywood Derby would. The horse may have finally found his niche, keep him where he's at.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

That's fine. We're obviously thinking very differently about things.

By the way, when you now say "top four" which of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, or Any Given Saturday are you insinuating that he is ahead of? Ask pretty much anyone, and he's not even in the same league as those guys.

You think he's fifth or sixth best on paper and capable of bring "third or fourth". I think that's a pipe dream and that he maybe gets the better of Student Council.

Good thing he's not going. It might have been hard for you to look back at this thread after he got abused through furlongs number nine and ten.

Because of the way I think the race will be run, I don't give Hard Spun a shot in hell of doing anything. The others are my top four and frankly, I'm not sold on Street Sense or Any Given Saturday. If they both run their best races, I think they are in the mix. But just as people have been saying about Nobiz, I'm not sure that I see a better SS now than I did at this time last year. His Travers figure wasn't any better than the Juvenile and wasn't as good as his Derby and Preakness. Whereas usually the top 3yo's improve as the year goes on (Curlin, AGS and Hard Spun have), Street Sense has gone the wrong way. With AGS, he improved a ton in winning the Dwyer and the Haskell but I think his last race tempered a lot of the growing enthusiam about him. I feel that if Curlin and Lawyer Ron both run theirs, they are the only two that matter here. And I'm leery of that happening. The JCGC was a very tough race and it wouldn't be surprising to see one of them regress from it. For Lawyer Ron, it was his third straight 114+ race. Can he produce a fourth straight, all in the span of two months, at a distance that's a touch beyond his best, with another quality horse like Hard Spun challenging him up front instead of the pig from the JCGC?

I know all of this has made it seem like I'm sold on Nobiz having a shot to win. I'm not at all. I just am less sold on the quality and strengths of the others than it seems like most people are.

[horseofcourse]

I can't believe the abuse Nobiz takes on these boards. Incredible. This is a darn good horse. I thought he ran his career high dirt Beyer his last time out on dirt losing to AGS or am I missing something?? Wouldn't that show improvement? Turf Beyers are a complete waste of time. I saw a horse running fast at the end of the Jamaica. He's had a very nice year. Nothing else noteworthy here.

Originally Posted by horseofcourse

I can't believe the abuse Nobiz takes on these boards. Incredible. This is a darn good horse. I thought he ran his career high dirt Beyer his last time out on dirt losing to AGS or am I missing something?? Wouldn't that show improvement? Turf Beyers are a complete waste of time. I saw a horse running fast at the end of the Jamaica. He's had a very nice year. Nothing else noteworthy here.

He doesn't get abused, the posters inflate his talent and the rest of the people see the reality of it. He might one day be great, but he has done nothing yet to deserve the praise he gets on boards and in the media. You can't run basically the same figures you ran as a two year old and expect praise. He is a nice horse, nothing more. If he was better, the trainer, who is excellent at knowing what he has and placing it appropriately, would be going to the Breeders Cup. This horse is just too slow. Last years horse, Showing Up, was fast enough, but really a 9f horse, and the BCM and the BCT were just bad fits for him. Tagg knows what he has and he thinks right now the horse is not a BC caliber horse.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

He doesn't get abused, the posters inflate his talent and the rest of the people see the reality of it. He might one day be great, but he has done nothing yet to deserve the praise he gets on boards and in the media. You can't run basically the same figures you ran as a two year old and expect praise. He is a nice horse, nothing more. If he was better, the trainer, who is excellent at knowing what he has and placing it appropriately, would be going to the Breeders Cup. This horse is just too slow. Last years horse, Showing Up, was fast enough, but really a 9f horse, and the BCM and the BCT were just bad fits for him. Tagg knows what he has and he thinks right now the horse is not a BC caliber horse.

Street Sense in the BC Juvenile-108
Jim Dandy-105
Travers-108
KY Cup Classic-107

Street Sense is doing exactly what you are saying a horse can't do and expect praise. The difference is that his numbers were high enough to start with while Nobiz' weren't. One other difference is that Nobiz, in his last dirt race, ran his career best dirt number and has looked even better in his turf races, suggesting that it's possible that he's turned into a better horse and could even improve that Dwyer figure he got if put back on the dirt. If he could improve it to the area of 107-108, I think that puts him squarely in the picture with horses like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun. Again though, I'm not over inflating his talent. I have thought there was room for growth from him and it seems like he's maybe starting to grow. But my biggest thing is the lack of faith in those he'd be competing against. If it was a field of Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, etc, several horses that were routinely going in the mid 110's, that would be different. But I wouldn't be scared off by the 103 AGS just ran or the back to back to back 105/108/107 that SS has strung together.

[King Glorious]

Master Command is out.
Zanjero is out.
Grasshopper is out.
Diamond Stripes is likely going to the Dirt Mile.
Political Force is out.
Student Council may run in Japan.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Street Sense in the BC Juvenile-108
Jim Dandy-105
Travers-108
KY Cup Classic-107

Street Sense is doing exactly what you are saying a horse can't do and expect praise. The difference is that his numbers were high enough to start with while Nobiz' weren't. One other difference is that Nobiz, in his last dirt race, ran his career best dirt number and has looked even better in his turf races, suggesting that it's possible that he's turned into a better horse and could even improve that Dwyer figure he got if put back on the dirt. If he could improve it to the area of 107-108, I think that puts him squarely in the picture with horses like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun. Again though, I'm not over inflating his talent. I have thought there was room for growth from him and it seems like he's maybe starting to grow. But my biggest thing is the lack of faith in those he'd be competing against. If it was a field of Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, etc, several horses that were routinely going in the mid 110's, that would be different. But I wouldn't be scared off by the 103 AGS just ran or the back to back to back 105/108/107 that SS has strung together.

Ok. Nobiz and Street Sense have both basically stayed the same. However the one was fast to begin with. Also, the others have now caught Street Sense and I would be shocked if Street Sense hit the board at Monmouth.

The real question you have to ask yourself is if Nobiz was fast enough to run in the race why wouldn't Tagg run him there? Also, why was the dirt abandoned for the turf. Because he could never be a top caliber dirt horse and they are hoping he can be on the turf, which is still a question, because like he did on the dirt, he beat a bunch of decent horses and we won't know until he actually beats "real" grass horses.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Benevolus

Ok. Nobiz and Street Sense have both basically stayed the same. However the one was fast to begin with. Also, the others have now caught Street Sense and I would be shocked if Street Sense hit the board at Monmouth.

The real question you have to ask yourself is if Nobiz was fast enough to run in the race why wouldn't Tagg run him there? Also, why was the dirt abandoned for the turf. Because he could never be a top caliber dirt horse and they are hoping he can be on the turf, which is still a question, because like he did on the dirt, he beat a bunch of decent horses and we won't know until he actually beats "real" grass horses.

Well, I don't know that I'd say that Street Sense was fast. He's obviously been fast enough and he's run some really good races. But the fact that he's still running the same figures now as he was able to run as a 2yo doesn't bode well for him trying to make the leap from a high of 111 up to the range of 114-118 that it's apparently going to take for him to reach the level that Curlin and Lawyer Ron have been running at. It's my belief that, considering that his last race on dirt was his best one, there is more reason to believe that Nobiz is capable of jumping up to the 108 range that it might take to be in the mix for third than SS is of making the leap to the 115 or so it might take to win.

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Well, I don't know that I'd say that Street Sense was fast. He's obviously been fast enough and he's run some really good races. But the fact that he's still running the same figures now as he was able to run as a 2yo doesn't bode well for him trying to make the leap from a high of 111 up to the range of 114-118 that it's apparently going to take for him to reach the level that Curlin and Lawyer Ron have been running at. It's my belief that, considering that his last race on dirt was his best one, there is more reason to believe that Nobiz is capable of jumping up to the 108 range that it might take to be in the mix for third than SS is of making the leap to the 115 or so it might take to win.

Highly doubtful Nobiz will ever see the dirt again and beyers don't mean too much on grass, just who you beat. Street Sense needs the right setup, but he might get it. A 108-110 might be all that is needed in the Breeders Cup. Lawyer Ron might not fire at 10f and Curlin and Hard Spun don't seem to love Monmouth. Any Given Saturday might fire off the 115 though, especially considering he had the easy last race and he likes Monmouth. Tiago is one to watch though.

Nobiz would not pick up a check in this race. He is likely to win the race at Hollywood Park. That is why he isn't running here.