Triple Crown?

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'd like to remind everyone who put up a horse who wasn't a tc winner after their derby win, that they are ignoring that fact that there are always those who proclaim the ky derby winner the next tc winner...
i'd also remind everyone that we've seen horses who were damn good get this far before, only to fail later.
so, before you guarantee a tc win, think of spectacular bid, majestic prince and the like. then tell me again how this is a guarantee for big brown.

I think back on Smarty Jones thinking it was the slop, on Street Sense's red sea divide on the rail. The easy ones like Giacomo. Im always thinking that was lucky. There was no real luck in this one Z. They just kept the horse away from all the others. It was way too easy.

I sensed mostly skeptics after Derby wins. Not with Spectacular Bid. But certainly with most of the winners. If this horse stays sound. Way too easy, too much upside.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by CSC

In addition, I don't think distance will be a problem with this horse. It's more inexperience that may his undoing. Easy for me to say, but I'd try the formerly Sir Barton stks now renamed Barbaro stks on Pimlico Preakness Day. See how he comes out of that and then take a shot in the Belmont. Conceivably he could still run in the Plate if they choose to. There's no need to throw him to the wolves this early. Coa said after the race he is still very green.

I think the performances of similarly inexperienced colts like Red Bullet and Bernardini are incentive enough to go for gusto.

And many a Derby also-ran came back to form at Pimlico. Pine Bluff, Hansel, Point Given, Snow Chief, Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, etc. etc. I would think Colonel John, who according to the chart made a middle move, and maybe Pyro, who had trouble early, would fit the bill this year.

[MarkyD]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

And for those who can't root for the connections...



how could you not root for Desormeaux and his family after that tearjerker of a piece on NBC?

go listen this, a exactly go start listening 3:30 to 3:45
Do you hear what I hear....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nssrqK-0VUg

[CSC]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I think back on Smarty Jones thinking it was the slop, on Street Sense's red sea divide on the rail. The easy ones like Giacomo. Im always thinking that was lucky. There was no real luck in this one Z. They just kept the horse away from all the others. It was way too easy.

I sensed mostly skeptics after Derby wins. Not with Spectacular Bid. But certainly with most of the winners. If this horse stays sound. Way too easy, too much upside.

I think to be accurate Big Brown is perhaps a pretty good 3 year old in a mediocre crop of 3 year olds. There is no way anyone with a sane mind would be proclaiming a Triple crown had he been born one year earlier, at times fate smiles on you and it has with this horse thus far.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

I think the performances of similarly inexperienced colts like Red Bullet and Bernardini are incentive enough to go for gusto.

And many a Derby also-ran came back to form at Pimlico. Pine Bluff, Hansel, Point Given, Snow Chief, Gate Dancer, Tank's Prospect, etc. etc. I would think Colonel John, who according to the chart made a middle move, and maybe Pyro, who had trouble early, would fit the bill this year.

I don't disagree, I just think a logical step would be the Peter Pan or The Barbaro with more of a preference to the latter. If all goes well he can point for a Belmont - Plate double. There are plenty of big races later in the Summer. No need to push a good horse too fast, well that is my opinion which probably doesn't mean a hill of beans to Frank. Afterall this horse just broke his Mdn in Feb.

Originally Posted by CSC

I think to be accurate Big Brown is perhaps a pretty good 3 year old in a mediocre crop of 3 year olds. There is no way anyone with a sane mind would be proclaiming a Triple crown had he been born one year earlier, at times fate smiles on you and it has with this horse thus far.

The feet are a definite problem as already stated.
These will be the most closely watched hooves...

[slotdirt]

It is just hard to believe that after all these years following the Triple Crown from Louisville to Old Hilltop to Elmont that this is the horse that seems most likely to win all three. I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

He will be like the others,and get beat in the Belmont.Somebody rested for 5 weeks will roll by.There is a good reason the others couldn't finish it off.Most of them looked pretty damn good,too.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I think back on Smarty Jones thinking it was the slop, on Street Sense's red sea divide on the rail. The easy ones like Giacomo. Im always thinking that was lucky. There was no real luck in this one Z. They just kept the horse away from all the others. It was way too easy.

I sensed mostly skeptics after Derby wins. Not with Spectacular Bid. But certainly with most of the winners. If this horse stays sound. Way too easy, too much upside.

i'll believe it when i see it, and not a moment before. been there, done that, too many times. too many ways that it hasn't happened, when everything seemed lined up to make it happen.
just ask big browns jock about it...he knows all about losing the tc by a whisker.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

He will be like the others,and get beat in the Belmont.Somebody rested for 5 weeks will roll by.There is a good reason the others couldn't finish it off.Most of them looked pretty damn good,too.

exactly. there're many reasons why there are only 11 who have done it, and dozens who came close....

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

It is just hard to believe that after all these years following the Triple Crown from Louisville to Old Hilltop to Elmont that this is the horse that seems most likely to win all three. I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

you're not alone.

something sick and twisted with the racing gods, if a horse like bid couldn't do it, but our newest derby winner can...

[ddthetide]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

It is just hard to believe that after all these years following the Triple Crown from Louisville to Old Hilltop to Elmont that this is the horse that seems most likely to win all three. I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.

it's hard to believe that the rest of the colts are this bad! DoC finished 11 lengths back? the second and third best 3 y/o's are fillies and one of them left us today. sad

[King Glorious]

I know it wouldn't happen but I'd love for Big Brown to skip the Preakness. Listening to the post-race interviews, Dutrow really seemed skeptical about his chances. Imagine that. Before the Derby, he was overflowing with confidence. After that route, he seems skeptical. Well, not skeptical but less confident. He was saying how he wouldn't even be able to train him and may not even breeze him between now and then. He was saying how normally he likes to prepare for a race but now he can't. I'd love to see a trainer win the Derby and say "running back on two-weeks is not in the best interests of my horse" and skip the race. I can't help but think back to the Barbaro situation. Were his long breaks by design or out of necessity? Did the way he came out of races tell Matz that Barbaro needed more time to recover than a few weeks? Obviously, we know about BB's foot history. Is it totally behind him? Did Dutrow chose the Florida Derby and the longer break between then and the Kentucky Derby because he felt that chosing a later race wouldn't allow him the recovery time that he NEEDS? I'm not saying I predict a breakdown in the Preakness but with horses like this, it's always a little bit of a bigger concern for me. When Dutrow made his comments, it reminded me of why I liked Smarty Jones so much. I remember Frankel was talking about him and saying how he had the advantage of training Ghostzapper how he wanted to because he set the schedule while Smarty had his set for him.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

You don't have to be better than him to beat him in the Belmont.Most of the others got beat by mediocre horses in the Belmont.It's not about how good they are.

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'll believe it when i see it, and not a moment before. been there, done that, too many times. too many ways that it hasn't happened, when everything seemed lined up to make it happen.
just ask big browns jock about it...he knows all about losing the tc by a whisker.

With the fragile feet it is a long time to stay sound.
Throw in some mud at Pimlico.

I just cant think of a Kentucky Derby when a horse
ran so much further and made it look so easy. At little
bit of dirt, something. Kent D's goggles are spotless.

There was seemingly very little effort expended.
At least after the Florida Derby the horse looked tired.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

I've got to hear about Denis of Cork for another five weeks because of that god damned meaningless junk collecting 3rd.

This might have been a good time to admit you were wrong about Denis of Cork. You knew, or should have known, that it wasn't exactly a stellar group going into the race.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This might have been a good time to admit you were wrong about Denis of Cork. You knew, or should have known, that it wasn't exactly a stellar group going into the race.

Uh no. The horse still was dusted and more than likely didn't run above a 96 beyer.

Just because this crop is horrendous doesn't mean I have to give this plug a pass.

[docicu3]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This might have been a good time to admit you were wrong about Denis of Cork. You knew, or should have known, that it wasn't exactly a stellar group going into the race.

Andy how did you do today with your bets for the derby I hadn't heard or read your thoughts pre race. Did you have this one figured out better than my own pitiful plays today leaving out the filly is just good enough for me to have nightmares for the month of May.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by docicu3

Andy how did you do today with your bets for the derby I hadn't heard or read your thoughts pre race. Did you have this one figured out better than my own pitiful plays today leaving out the filly is just good enough for me to have nightmares for the month of May.

If you are a DRF Plus member you could see the videos I did with Dan Illman for all the stakes both Friday and Saturday. I actually did better overall than usual but nothing special.

I lost about $100 on the Derby. I was alive to four horses in Derby/Oaks doubles......bigger to Denis of Cork and Pyro and less to Tale of Ekati and Cool Coal Man. I boxed those four in the exacta for a few bucks and keyed Denis of Cork and Pyro in some bigger exactas. Far from my worst overall opinion....but a losing one nonetheless.

I said I wouldn't be surprised when Big Brown won by three or four lengths.....but I also said I would never bet on him.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Uh no. The horse still was dusted and more than likely didn't run above a 96 beyer.

Just because this crop is horrendous doesn't mean I have to give this plug a pass.

He did a lot better than you said he would on this board....over and over again. I don't think anyone said he was a superstar....but many of us felt that because of the inferior quality of the field he had a chance at what was a solid price.

Once again, he didn't run great, but he ran OK and is a nice horse. Now, I have to revisit the Smooth Air thread.