Hooves' BEL selections {$3,951 P4 Hit!!}

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I doubt it was Prado's magical touch that got the horse to rate. . . He was cutting back in distance and stepping up in class. The other speed horses were legit sprint speed horses while his on-the-lead races came going 1M+. . .

Of course. It obviously had little to nothing to do with the jockey. The simple fact is the horse clearly did not have the speed to be on the lead in this race. Now, it was obviously a question of whether or not the HORSE ( this is horseracing and not jockeyracing....contrary to what Jerry Bailey believes ) could rate successfully and if anyone should be getting credit it is clearly the trainer who has dramatically improved a number of horses off the claim including two yesterday.

But.....Prado somehow is given the credit.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Ariel Smith == MR PREMATURE

Edgar Prade == THE GREAT COLLAPSER

Edgar just loves busting races apart with early moves these days.
It fun, unless you bet him.

The way the horse in this discussion ran yesterday even Ariel Smith would have won on her.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Of course. It obviously had little to nothing to do with the jockey. The simple fact is the horse clearly did not have the speed to be on the lead in this race. Now, it was obviously a question of whether or not the HORSE ( this is horseracing and not jockeyracing....contrary to what Jerry Bailey believes ) could rate successfully and if anyone should be getting credit it is clearly the trainer who has dramatically improved a number of horses off the claim including two yesterday.

But.....Prado somehow is given the credit.

This Bruce Brown guy you are speaking of, where did he come from? finger lakes?

[hockey2315]

We agree?!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Scav

This Bruce Brown guy you are speaking of, where did he come from? finger lakes?

He was Tim Hills's assistant and went out on his own this past winter.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Only time the horse had shown any desire was up front. We see these horses in the form all the time. That's why it went off 9-1 . It hadn't shown desire when it couldn't get to the lead. Obviously, it did with Prado up. If people thought the trainer could get the horse to do that, then it would of taken more play. If it was the trainer, then surely people would have reminded us that the trainer had shown this ability with need-the-lead types.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was Tim Hills's assistant and went out on his own this past winter.

thank you

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

Only time the horse had shown any desire was up front. We see these horses in the form all the time. That's why it went off 9-1 . It hadn't shown desire when it couldn't get to the lead. Obviously, it did with Prado up. If people thought the trainer could get the horse to do that, then it would of taken more play. If it was the trainer, then surely people would have reminded us that the trainer had shown this ability with need-the-lead types.

So, because a horse that looked too slow on paper, and was claimed off of Todd Pletcher, won at 9:1, it was the jockey that made the horse win?

I beg to differ.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Same thing with Bejarano in the 6th race yesterday. Horse ran right back to the figure it was only able to run with Ralfy up on him. Two other guys could do nothing at all with the horse. I agree that horses only have so much to give, but only some can get it all out of them. It's not about inventing something. It's about being able to use what is indeed there already. So, no, I wouldn't say Prado made the horse win. I'd say Prado got the horse to do what others couldn't get the horse to do. You're correct that the horse has to have the ability, but the jock also has to have the ability to get a horse to show it. There is a big difference between having ability, and being able to transfer that ability into results. Barry Abrams has said many times that a certain filly (that flopped again in the 6th race Wednesday) is gunna be a stakes horse. Obviously we have seen a big difference between her ability, and her results. I think your thinking works with consistent top quality stakes horses. They are probably going to run good for most jocks. Many other horses are more in n' outers.

[blackthroatedwind]

I see your point, and surely the horse did win rating for Prado, and like you said couldn't for anyone else. However, I think if you use Formulator you would find it interesting if you looked up how well some horses for this trainer have performed off the claim or trainer change.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I see your point, and surely the horse did win rating for Prado, and like you said couldn't for anyone else. However, I think if you use Formulator you would find it interesting if you looked up how well some horses for this trainer have performed off the claim or trainer change.

I'm open to either scenario. Trainers obviously move horses up
off claims. I'm open to either of the 3 explanations :

1) The trainer moved the horse up off the claim from an Eclipse-award winning trainer.

2) Prado was able to get the horse to be comfortable, and compete from off the pace ( something the majority of bettors thought wasn't going to be possible.) I'm not saying he invented something that wasn't already there. He just was possibly able to open up something others would have found closed. He has won a couple Belmonts with horses paying an awful lot of money. He does seem to be able to get rather slow horses to make a big comfortable smooth run. When I said he got the horse to rate, I meant that he got the horse to compete from off the pace. The horse indeed was gunna be off the pace. It's just whether it was gunna try to make a winning bid from off the pace.

3) Combination of both