2/16 (OP): Southwest S. (Gr. III)

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

My post wasn't counting him out. The horse is bred for the big one.

which makes it so sad that he's stuck out west. there's just no way of telling how he really stacks up. now, if the derby were run in cali, i'd play him to win the thing. but i don't trust the racing out there to tell you who really can do what. it's why square eddie was coming to oaklawn-not all horses like it out there. you have to find where they fit.

[DaTruth]

Two races prior to the Southwest, Oaklawn ran a $30,000 claimer for older fillies and mares at the same one mile distance as the Southwest. Old Fashioned’s winning time was 1.76 seconds faster than the final time of that claiming race, which was won by Nine M.M.. Old Fashioned ran his final furlong in 13.18 seconds. Nine M.M. ran her final furlong in 13.22 seconds. Old Fashioned was half a length off the lead with a quarter to run, and the final quarter mile in the Southwest was run in 26.37 seconds. Nine M.M. won her race going wire to wire, with the final quarter run in 26.41 seconds.

Granted, it was Old Fashioned's first start in almost three months, and he chased a fast opening half, but I expected the top dog on the Derby road to finish much faster than a Delta mare.

[pick4]

The Derby is a long ways out. Everything will sort itself out during the next few months. I think Old Fashioned is a serious racehorse. But I'm looking forward to seeing Hello Broadway run two turns as I think he has talent and will improve with natural maturation and running long. Danger To Society ran a clunker in the Holy Bull but he ran well prior to that debacle. He wouldn't be the first horse to run a dud and come back to make his mark on the Derby Trail.

Who's running in the FOY?
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...tch_021309.pdf

According to Privman/Watchmaker Derby Watch Capt Candy Man,This One's for Phil, Beethoven, West Side Bernie are running.

Should be an interesting race.

[lostcode]

Why is IP behind. Old FAsioned has 4 races. IP has 3. Both have one race this year. IC has had 8 works since Dec 31. He Rac 6.5 and 7 furlongs a 2 year old. Old Fashioned had 6 furlong a mile race and Remson. Last year Big Brown did not run until March 7th.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by pick4

The Derby is a long ways out. Everything will sort itself out during the next few months. I think Old Fashioned is a serious racehorse. But I'm looking forward to seeing Hello Broadway run two turns as I think he has talent and will improve with natural maturation and running long. Danger To Society ran a clunker in the Holy Bull but he ran well prior to that debacle. He wouldn't be the first horse to run a dud and come back to make his mark on the Derby Trail.
Who's running in the FOY?
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...tch_021309.pdf

According to Privman/Watchmaker Derby Watch Capt Candy Man,This One's for Phil, Beethoven, West Side Bernie are running.

Should be an interesting race.

now that is true. i remember when a certain horse ran a clunker, the trainer explained why the horse ran badly, and was attacked by many. yeah, sure, he had a lung infection....
afleet alex came back well from that debacle...

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by lostcode

Why is IP behind. Old FAsioned has 4 races. IP has 3. Both have one race this year. IC has had 8 works since Dec 31. He Rac 6.5 and 7 furlongs a 2 year old. Old Fashioned had 6 furlong a mile race and Remson. Last year Big Brown did not run until March 7th.

has he run a mile, or around two turns yet? maybe some think he should have by now, if he hasn't. i haven't been paying him much attention, so i honestly don't know what he has done as yet.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'd be interested to know what horse out there everyone thinks is going to take him down in the Arkansas Derby in a fairly run race, because at this point I haven't seen anything all that impressive. I like Imperial Council very much, but the Derby is coming up much too soon. Fresian Fire is solid and Jones is holding a strong hand going into the Derby, but I don't think he is as good as Old Fashioned. There is certainly no reason to think Pioneerof the Nile won't take to the dirt, so he could challenge him, but it's doubtful he'll leave CA prior to the Derby.

The FOY is interesting if all of the probables make it into the field, but I think like Silver City, you'll have horses come out of that race that will be pointed to the sprint stakes in later in the season.

I disagree with your accessment about Pioneer of The Nile not taking to a true dirt race course. He's only run on turf, Poly @ Keeneland, Pro Ride @ Santa and Cushion Track @ Hollywood. While it's likely Baffert will take the California road to the Derby, he has shipped horses east to prep in the past. It would not surprise me if he runs Pioneer in the Wood Memorial. Baffert is not a big fan of these synthetic tracks and might want to find out if he has a dirt horse prior to the Derby.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by lostcode

Why is IP behind. Old FAsioned has 4 races. IP has 3. Both have one race this year. IC has had 8 works since Dec 31. He Rac 6.5 and 7 furlongs a 2 year old. Old Fashioned had 6 furlong a mile race and Remson. Last year Big Brown did not run until March 7th.

I just can't picture Shug rolling the dice like Dutrow did and entering Imperial Council in the FL Derby and then the Derby. Who knows though? It's a different world now with Derby preps.

[lostcode]

It is a whole new world. I think allowance and then wood or Gotham and wood. Shug is cautious but why even start training him late in December if he's thinking Belmont or Travers? You can't train all spring for the Belmont.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pick4

I disagree with your accessment about Pioneer of The Nile not taking to a true dirt race course. He's only run on turf, Poly @ Keeneland, Pro Ride @ Santa and Cushion Track @ Hollywood. While it's likely Baffert will take the California road to the Derby, he has shipped horses east to prep in the past. It would not surprise me if he runs Pioneer in the Wood Memorial. Baffert is not a big fan of these synthetic tracks and might want to find out if he has a dirt horse prior to the Derby.

Really? You think Baffert is anxious to expose Pioneerof the Nile for the ordinary turf horse he is by running him on dirt before the Derby when he can be the likely favorite to win the $750,000 Gr. I Santa Anita Derby? I'd think this one through again.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Danzig

now that is true. i remember when a certain horse ran a clunker, the trainer explained why the horse ran badly, and was attacked by many. yeah, sure, he had a lung infection....
afleet alex came back well from that debacle...

Here's the pp's of the the Derby winners from 1992 to 2008.

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...rbywinners.pdf

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Yes that's nice and whatnot..

at the time Smarty's Southwest was panned and it was miles better than this race in overall quality. You had 4 out of 9 horses in that race that showed ability.

The race today was a snoozefest match race between unbridled song's seeds.

I'll hold off on annointing this horse the next Smarty Jones.

That was clearly his worst career race, and he still won. Bad enough that wiseguys let him go off at 7/2 in the Rebel with Purge favored. As much as I think Old Fashioned is the correct current Derby favorite, this might have been his best career race.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I've seen horses come home in 11 and change in the final 1/8th there going 9fs ... and I'm talking about horses lesser than Afleet Alex and Curlin.

Hell, Rockamundo, the biggest bum to ever win a major Derby prep, he came home in like 12.50 for his final furlong in the Ark Derby after pressing a 45 and change pace.

Note in Davidowitz' column about the downhill not affecting races run at a mile.

Incidentally, I remember that column specifically because it made me decide that Peace Rules could be forgiven for the extremely slow final 3F's in the Blue Grass (and even though he didn't win the Derby, he ran extremely well) and Sir Cherokee being an easy toss.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

That was clearly his worst career race, and he still won. Bad enough that wiseguys let him go off at 7/2 in the Rebel with Purge favored. As much as I think Old Fashioned is the correct current Derby favorite, this might have been his best career race.



Note in Davidowitz' column about the downhill not affecting races run at a mile.

Incidentally, I remember that column specifically because it made me decide that Peace Rules could be forgiven for the extremely slow final 3F's in the Blue Grass (and even though he didn't win the Derby, he ran extremely well) and Sir Cherokee being an easy toss.

Peace Rules He'd be unstoppable in the older male division now!

[Bobby Fischer]

Obviously being a part of a legit pace will take its toll.
47 seconds is nothing like 45 seconds. Totally different world.

However, I agree that it wasn't a champion type of finish. Times was mediocre. He hasn't shown that he's best yet. THey all still have a lot to prove.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Really? You think Baffert is anxious to expose Pioneerof the Nile for the ordinary turf horse he is by running him on dirt before the Derby when he can be the likely favorite to win the $750,000 Gr. I Santa Anita Derby? I'd think this one through again.

That's a good point. But don't you think he'd like to know if he has a dirt horse? Baffert loves the attention of the Derby spotlight but he usually only goes to the race if he thinks he has a legit chance.

I find it ironic that the owner of Pioneer of The Nile got into a spat with Joe Harper at DelMar and removed all his horses from So Cal. Now he has a Derby contender who is proven on So Cal synthetic tracks and is a huge question mark when it comes to running ondirt.

[pick4]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Peace Rules He'd be unstoppable in the older male division now!

Peace Rules was as game of a horse as there was. He always ran hard and gave an honest effort.

[Bobby Fischer]

those horses ALL run good out west unless something really pressures them in a race.
Baffert is going Cali all the way to kentucky

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Peace Rules He'd be unstoppable in the older male division now!

He would CRUSH these, even at his less-than-preferred distance of a mile and a quarter.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by pick4

That's a good point. But don't you think he'd like to know if he has a dirt horse? Baffert loves the attention of the Derby spotlight but he usually only goes to the race if he thinks he has a legit chance.

I find it ironic that the owner of Pioneer of The Nile got into a spat with Joe Harper at DelMar and removed all his horses from So Cal. Now he has a Derby contender who is proven on So Cal synthetic tracks and is a huge question mark when it comes to running on dirt.

I'd imagine he knows already what he has and he'll maximize the opportunities for him. (Or try to considering the variable of the mercurial ownership involved.)

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by philcski

He would CRUSH these, even at his less-than-preferred distance of a mile and a quarter.

I think that is what is amusing about this conversation about Old Fashioned. When Peace Rules was running I remember reading on the boards that he was never brilliant enough and not very good because at the time there were some really nice horses running. Now we have a horse who, while lacking true jaw-dropping brilliance, of Derby Contenders past, has been checking the appropriate boxes and like you said is the deserving Derby favorite, yet on this board and others there are people who seem to think OF isn't deservent or head of the class. Perhaps they're holding out for brilliance we may (or may not) be seeing this year.