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#81
03-07-2009, 09:39 PM
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The pace was an absolute crawlfest in the Gotham. Mr. Fantasy will never beat halfway decent horses going long without an easy lead. I Want Revenge ran OK, and might be alright, but lets see how he does without everything going his way.
Now, Imperial Council is a different story. While clearly he got a great ride, saving ground, but the dynamics were WAY against him, and it seems pretty obvious the idea was to see what he could do in more realistic race situations down the road where the stakes are MUCH higher. I think we know now. He fits very well, at this point, with any KY Derby contender and may well prove the best 3YO this year.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB 
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#82
03-07-2009, 09:47 PM
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#83
03-07-2009, 09:59 PM
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He was moving well in the late stages and should get better going longer, but he's now going to need to run at least 2nd in the Wood to get into the Derby. The best thing for this horse might be for him to miss the exacta in the Wood and thus skip the Derby because then he might be able to grow into a nice horse later this year. NT
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#84
03-07-2009, 10:03 PM
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Still, all things considered (pace, experience, etc.), it has to be viewed as a solid effort.
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#85
03-07-2009, 10:07 PM
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I dont think IC ran a bad race but if he had a bit of trouble or had to lose any ground he gets beat 10+ lengths. The pace was an obvious factor and it prevented him from having a legit chance to win or even run closer but I dont know that I am as high as Andy is on him. Though rooting for Shug is a lot more palatable then some of my other contemporaries.
After watching it again, the winners race may wind up being more of a mirage than a sign of things to come.
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#86
03-07-2009, 10:13 PM
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I think the plan was clearly to drop out of it and make one run. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think Shug knows exactly what he's doing.
I hope he gets in the Derby.......because he can absolutely win it.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#87
03-07-2009, 10:15 PM
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IC will always be limited by his poor stride conformation. He hooks his left front out badly and to the left, and then to compensate brings it inward almost touching/crossing his right front.
He is a good athlete otherwise,but with his stride conformation problem he has no chance. gotham   Allowance GP
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#88
03-07-2009, 10:18 PM
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Oh boy.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#89
03-07-2009, 10:23 PM
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#90
03-07-2009, 10:24 PM
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#92
03-07-2009, 10:27 PM
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Easy trip or not I Want Revenge was great today ... and is obviously a new horse on dirt. His last race was just pathetic. He has a very ugly turf pedigree and was certainly one of the best projections of the So Cal horses likely to improve coming East from a pedigree standpoint. He did surprise me a whole lot even considering the soft trip and likely dirt improvement.
Mr. Fantasy broke a little akward but was exposed. Imperial Council is going to get a lot of undeserved attention because his sire and dam sire are both Belmont Stake winners - and he's trained by Shug. Yeah, he was against a real slow pace on a track that was a bit kind to speed... Giacomo was running faster figs with more adverse trips earlier on in his 3yo season .. and he was trained by John Sherriffs - who is just leathal at getting a horse cranked up. He once won at something like a 70% clip with first time starters over a 2 year span in Southern Cal when he trained for 505 - most of his horses winning debuts with Beyers in the 90's to triple digits. He got Tiago to have the best finish of any American runner in the BC Classic last year - which is a complete miracle by itself. Shug always seems more worried about six months down the road than having them all cranked. Saarland was just 6/1 in the Derby after running two non-threatening races in the Gotham and Wood in his only two 3yo starts. I'd be way more interested in Imperial Council if you could substitue his pedigree and trainer ... because together, they might attract a flood of sucker money in the Derby.
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#93
03-07-2009, 10:29 PM
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#95
03-07-2009, 10:36 PM
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Please just let it go..
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#96
03-07-2009, 10:46 PM
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It's a no brainer who is right.. I wouldnt be surprised at all if Imperial Council's owners were reading this thread and totally second guessing Shug and their horse..
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#98
03-07-2009, 10:49 PM
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#99
03-07-2009, 11:00 PM
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NT
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#100
03-07-2009, 11:03 PM
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Guess I saw it differently than most. I thought that I Want Revenge ran a bangup race given the setup: how often do horses contend OUTSIDE and draw off on the inner dirt? But I won't get too excited, as he probably didn't really beat much.
As for Imperial Council: not only did he get a perfect inside-out trip but he was sufficiently behind any of the action (slow pace or otherwise) and only ran AFTER all the others had. He basically ran evenly throughout (something I don't see too often). I can see him beating the winner, should they meet again, if there's enough of a duel to run that one to submission. In other words, he kind of needs a collapsing race. Of course, there are probably better horses than the winner and probably better closers than IC. The chart for the race is attached (should anyone be interested).
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