136th Kentucky Derby (PP's)

[slotdirt]

If the Derby were run on turf, Make Music for Me would still probably be like 10th choice in this field.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

If the Derby were run on turf, Make Music for Me would still probably be like 10th choice in this field.

10th choice sounds good to me. The idea is to make money after all so I hope his odds are very high.

Paul

[slotdirt]

Good luck with him. I'd imagine an over/under of about 13th would be about fair for the horse.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by CSC

Or perhaps because there is no standout superior horse, if there is I haven't seen it yet.

Just confirming that we'll get to hear you crow about how right you were if one of 17 horses wins. Because you're totally the first to say that there are no standouts in the field.

[tector]

Somebody has to win the frigging race. I can't bust the chops of someone taking a price, except for the fact that all the true longshots go off at underlaid odds. In this race there is always some horse that should be 150-1 that goes off at 60-1 instead. Derby betting is unique unto its own, with names and numbers get bet by once-a-year betters.

[Sightseek]

The rest of the card is up, Churchill Down S. looks really interesting:

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry...10USA-EQB.html

[slotdirt]

I dug a little deeper into Make Music for Me, and I'm sorry, but I don't understand. And it's weird because the poster who is mentioning this horse is one of the more astute handicappers we have around here. The horse has worked precisely once since Blue Grass day, has won precisely one race in his entire career - a listed turf stakes, and has never even sniffed beating a good horse in his life. If we're just taking stabs to take stabs because the field is more than lackluster, I understand that, but I'd love to hear someone explain how Make Music for Me warrants any consideration for Saturday. Mike Welsh on his 4/25 workout:

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): There was not much to like about this move for the horse who now is first on the earnings bubble. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn't gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by tector

Somebody has to win the frigging race. I can't bust the chops of someone taking a price, except for the fact that all the true longshots go off at underlaid odds. In this race there is always some horse that should be 150-1 that goes off at 60-1 instead. Derby betting is unique unto its own, with names and numbers get bet by once-a-year betters.

This is true on the win end, but in exotic wagers, their odds shake-out to more appropriate levels.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I dug a little deeper into Make Music for Me, and I'm sorry, but I don't understand. And it's weird because the poster who is mentioning this horse is one of the more astute handicappers we have around here. The horse has worked precisely once since Blue Grass day, has won precisely one race in his entire career - a listed turf stakes, and has never even sniffed beating a good horse in his life. If we're just taking stabs to take stabs because the field is more than lackluster, I understand that, but I'd love to hear someone explain how Make Music for Me warrants any consideration for Saturday. Mike Welsh on his 4/25 workout:

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): There was not much to like about this move for the horse who now is first on the earnings bubble. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn't gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.

I would suggest going back to watch some of Make Music for Me's races before rushing to judgement. Now I am not suggesting that he is the most likely winner of this race. But, I do think he has a real shot to win and will be among the longest prices on the board which to me makes him worth a look.

Make Music for Me has three times faced Looking at Lucky in his career. he finished 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in those three attempts. All three losses were by a length and a quarter or less. Since Looking at Lucky will be one tenth of his price, and the race favorite, the fact that they have run so competitevely is encouraging. He has also run well against Noble's Promise as well.

Because he had serious earnings as a two year old, his trainer took it very easy on him this year so he would peak on saturday. This will be his third start of the year off the layoff.

I understand the knocks. His breeding certainly screams turf. He is not excatly a win machine. But you won't get 50-1 shots with no knocks.

However, if you dig deeper, he is coming in fresh, this is his third race off the layoff, the distance should not be an issue, he has the right running style for this race, and he will offer tremendous value.

I will be betting him. I may be way off base but in a race that has no clear standout, I want a horse that will offer value where if I am right, I will be seriously rewarded. At 50-1, he is a value.

Paul

[slotdirt]

Well, either he's fresh or he's about to fall apart. Not exactly a workout tab that engenders confidence. I think 50-1 is probably on the low end of where he'll actually be come post time.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Well, either he's fresh or he's about to fall apart. Not exactly a workout tab that engenders confidence. I think 50-1 is probably on the low end of where he'll actually be come post time.

He raced three weeks ago. He has worked twice since then. One was a bullet on April 19 at Keeneland. The other was a more even effort. I didn't see either work but wouldn't be concerned.

I hope no one else in America bets him but me. The higher the price the better.

Paul

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by pweizer

He raced three weeks ago. He has worked twice since then. One was a bullet on April 19 at Keeneland. The other was a more even effort. I didn't see either work but wouldn't be concerned.

I hope no one else in America bets him but me. The higher the price the better.

Paul

I'm going to cover him...probably w/a $20 win bet...just in case. Sorry.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I'm going to cover him...probably w/a $20 win bet...just in case. Sorry.

No worries. Just don't blame me if he runs up the track...

Paul

[slotdirt]

I'm not sure you'll be the only person betting the horse, but I think it's fair to say he'll be competing with Homeboykris for highest odds on the tote board. I hope you're a rich man come Saturday at 7:00 Eastern.

[2MinsToPost]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Most horseplayers and hardcore fans are at the track or the OTB anyway.

Beg to differ. Many cruise in make their bets and go home and watch. Too many people, partiers, lines at the windows etc etc..

Most of the regular hard core guys at my old hang out in Ohio fit that mold.

[tjfla]

Originally Posted by 2MinsToPost

Beg to differ. Many cruise in make their bets and go home and watch. Too many people, partiers, lines at the windows etc etc..

Most of the regular hard core guys at my old hang out in Ohio fit that mold.

Thats what I do-used to spend all day at track but now just too many damn people. I go in at 10 make my bets and watch at home

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I would suggest going back to watch some of Make Music for Me's races before rushing to judgement.

He's run ONE 'standout' race: the Pasadena on the TURF.

Noble's Promise has dusted him each time they've met.

Good luck to all those looking to bet him.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by pweizer

I would suggest going back to watch some of Make Music for Me's races before rushing to judgement. Now I am not suggesting that he is the most likely winner of this race. But, I do think he has a real shot to win and will be among the longest prices on the board which to me makes him worth a look.

Make Music for Me has three times faced Looking at Lucky in his career. he finished 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd in those three attempts. All three losses were by a length and a quarter or less. Since Looking at Lucky will be one tenth of his price, and the race favorite, the fact that they have run so competitevely is encouraging. He has also run well against Noble's Promise as well.

Because he had serious earnings as a two year old, his trainer took it very easy on him this year so he would peak on saturday. This will be his third start of the year off the layoff.

I understand the knocks. His breeding certainly screams turf. He is not excatly a win machine. But you won't get 50-1 shots with no knocks.

However, if you dig deeper, he is coming in fresh, this is his third race off the layoff, the distance should not be an issue, he has the right running style for this race, and he will offer tremendous value.

I will be betting him. I may be way off base but in a race that has no clear standout, I want a horse that will offer value where if I am right, I will be seriously rewarded. At 50-1, he is a value.

Paul

Great job Paul. I appreciate the insight.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

He's run ONE 'standout' race: the Pasadena on the TURF.

Noble's Promise has dusted him each time they've met.

Good luck to all those looking to bet him.

I take it you like NP in the Derby?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

I take it you like NP in the Derby?

I'm boxing him with SC.