Questions for Zenyatta Fans. . .

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by pba1817

That is precisely who I mean jerk off...

These people are the ones you need to entertain.

Do you think that the NFL cares about entertaining the hardcore gambler who will bet on coin tosses and halftime spreads? Or do they care about entertaining the housewife who has 3 kids and will support her team till she is 78yo? All the while buying tickets and merchandise?

The gambler.

Why do they maintain "official injury reports"? Why did they stagger the late game starts on Sundays? Why do they do play games on thursday nights?

Football became popular via gambling, not housewives or NFL cares promotions. Same reason college football is now so popular, not because all of a sudden Boise State became such a compelling story.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Athletics005

I haven't posted here in months, maybe years (have kept reading), but after seeing so many astute handicappers (that I respect) IMO completely miss the mark with this tremendous mare has finally got me out of hiding.

At this point, you have to believe in one of 2 things

1) Zenyatta is simply the luckiest horse ever to live. She runs her A game, max effort every start. It just so happens when she runs a 95, the next best horse runs a 94. When she bring it up to run a 102, the next best horse coincidentally runs a 101. And that 112 just had to be a fluke so lets not go there.....The odds of this happening for 18 straight races is astronomical. A better thoery would be the races are rigged and the jockey's purposely let her win ever race. At least that's statistically possible.

2) Or the crazy theory that she runs to the level of her competition. Zenyatta has many gears, and it only takes watching her races a couple times to see them. Usually she never has to go into 2nd gear (see last race) while others (usually due to Mike Smith underestimating the competition) she needs to into a higher gear to win. Or when she faces superior competition, she can really gear up....While her last race (which earned a mighty 94 beyer) signaled to many of you how crazy zenyatta fans are for claiming her greatness after a race where she beat a weak horse by a head. But just watching the race should clue you in. The pace was 1.15 and change, zenyatta was swung 7 wide, and not only did it not hinder her at all, she was past the leaders in a matter of strides. She was going two to their one. Once she got the lead, she geared down which gave the appearance of closeness when this was by far her easiest race of the year. This signaled to me is the same top form as last year. Remember all those slow beyers before the classic last year due to slow pace?

Why is she different on dirt? Hard to give a definitive answer. But my guess is that she DOES GEAR DOWN ON DIRT TOO. Even when she opens up 3-4 lengths on dirt, she could have gone much faster in that period if there was a horse she had to catch. Why not win by 1-2 lengths like usual? On synthetics shes overcoming such slow paces that even these cheap horses shes beating can fly home and make it seemingly close when Zenyatta gears down. On dirt, Zenyatta tackles the leaders earlier and since they have set a more honest pace, they are tired. And Zenyatta geared down is still running faster than them and pulling away.

Do I think she's the best dirt horse in the world? There is no way to know until she races again real competition on the surface.....But there sure isn't anything in her PP's that give me any hesitation that she will be an absolute dominate force come Classic time. I am with everyone who believes shes be handled with kid gloves. If they didn't want to ship east, at least face the boys out West over her preferred 10F distance. But just because she hasn't be allowed to repeatedly showcase her greatness doesn't mean it doesn't exist.


Quick question: If Zenyatta wins the Classic this year with a 110+ beyer, are the skeptics going to become believers? Or are we going to hear how there was a pace meltdown, or the competition obviously must have been overrated if they lost to her, or that its not hard to win one big race a year when you stay home for the rest of it.

The problem is that we are still speculating about a 6 year old horse that has 18 starts and now her entire legacy will boil down to one start and again her competition will play a bigger part in her performance than it should. That just isnt how the game is supposed to be played.

IMO of all the leading contenders she is probably is best suited to win a 1 1/4 race. I just hope she loses so that we don't have more of the idiotic, copy-catting that goes on in this game. That is the reason why big owners seem to feel like there are only 5 guys who can train a stake horse. That is the reason why every horse is now campaigned in kid gloves, start every 7-8 weeks if that. And if she is sucessful (or RA for that matter) in making the entire 365 day year come down to only 1 race (essentially a lottery drawing) that matters then the sport of horse racing is further doomed to obscurity.

[Athletics005]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

The problem is that we are still speculating about a 6 year old horse that has 18 starts and now her entire legacy will boil down to one start and again her competition will play a bigger part in her performance than it should. That just isnt how the game is supposed to be played.

IMO of all the leading contenders she is probably is best suited to win a 1 1/4 race. I just hope she loses so that we don't have more of the idiotic, copy-catting that goes on in this game. That is the reason why big owners seem to feel like there are only 5 guys who can train a stake horse. That is the reason why every horse is now campaigned in kid gloves, start every 7-8 weeks if that. And if she is sucessful (or RA for that matter) in making the entire 365 day year come down to only 1 race (essentially a lottery drawing) that matters then the sport of horse racing is further doomed to obscurity.

I agree that is not how the game is supposed to be played. That is why (despite my admiration for Zenyatta) I firmly believed the HOY should have gone to Rachel Alexandra last year. Her overall campaign was by far more impressive because she was actually allowed to prove her ability repeatedly and therefore should be rewarded with the ultimate prize.

However, just because it may be a bad precedent for the sport, Zenyatta should be the one being judged and not her connections. And sadly for those who feel she can't be judged appropriately by her previous 18 races (either due to surface or competition), her legacy to them will be judged by a single race. I have no problem with people taking that stance. I have a problem with people who feel they can judge her negatively based on her previous 18 races which I find to be an indefensible position. From what I have seen she has already proven herself to be a great mare, but I don't believe we have seen her best performance yet (because she hasn't faced the best competition yet), and she will have to bring that out in the Classic if she is going to prove herself to be the super horse on dirt. It's a shame that she will only have been given the chance to be full out twice in a 20 race career.

[Port Conway Lane]

[quote=Cannon Shell;680759]The problem is that we are still speculating about a 6 year old horse that has 18 starts and now her entire legacy will boil down to one start and again her competition will play a bigger part in her performance than it should.

Excellent point. No matter what happens her legacy will be exaggerated, positively or negatively

IMO of all the leading contenders she is probably is best suited to win a 1 1/4 race. I just hope she loses so that we don't have more of the idiotic, copy-catting that goes on in this game.
The connections of Zenyatta are no more guilty than anyone else in the last 10 years of running a limited schedule. Since when are owners and/or trainers of females expected to run in available races against males? If this trend is recent because of the poor quality of the male division or the brilliance of the female division then why aren't Life At Ten's connections held accountable for their choices ? Blame's 5 race schedule ending in the BCC doesn't inspire me more than anyone else's but if he wins the race where all the big guns meet he will be a deserving winner.

[declansharbor]

I know the answer for the differential in margin of victory probably lies elsewhere, but could it be as simple as the publicity tht said race was receiving at the time?

Camp Z knew all eyes were still on this race, (even with the defection of RA after Zardana drilled her) and that the final time/margin of victory would be as heavily scrutinized as the competition/surface switch. Sheriffs, perhaps, instructed M Smith to dress it up as a more convincing win, in order to quell all of nay-sayers that were foaming at the mouth to interject with "IF RA was in the race, she would've beaten so and so by THIS much." I could very much see Sheriffs telling Smith pre-race "Leave no doubt out there as to who would've won today HAD they run their filly. Get her cranked iheading into the turn and keep at her."