Best Maiden Race of the meet so far...

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rick Violette at Saratoga with 2-year-olds has been an amazing angle going back at least as far as 1998. He goes out and gets the right type of horses for those races and he gets them ready.

Most of the time - those horses won't develop much. But there are exceptions like Dream Rush, High Finance, Read the Footnotes, Summer Doldrums etc.

Of these, wasn't Read the Footnotes the only one to race, let alone break his maiden, at Saratoga as a 2YO?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

5 YEARS overall was horrible, I had to make it 3.

Rick Violette with 2yo's on dirt at Saratoga since '98:

24-for-88 (27.3%) $3.86 ROI

In 2yo dirt races at Saratoga that are 5.5fs or shorter:

15-for-41 (36.6% wins) $4.45 ROI


Again ... a lot of the damage was done in the late 90's - Indian Charlie can tell you how I was a rabid Violette fan ten years ago. It took a while for me to figure out why he was so great with these obscurely bred types sprinting at Saratoga.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rick Violette with 2yo's on dirt at Saratoga since '98:

24-for-88 (27.3%) $3.86 ROI

In 2yo dirt races at Saratoga that are 5.5fs or shorter:

15-for-41 (36.6% wins) $4.45 ROI


Again ... a lot of the damage was done in the late 90's - Indian Charlie can tell you how I was a rabid Violette fan ten years ago. It took a while for me to figure out why he was so great with these obscurely bred types sprinting at Saratoga.

How do you go back that far? When I plugged in just 5 it was not that good, I dont really remember late 90's, since I was no older then 14.
Why is he so great?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Of these, wasn't Read the Footnotes the only one to race, let alone break his maiden, at Saratoga as a 2YO?

I think so. They were all his type of 2yo though - the fast pinhook.

Dream Rush was a 90k yl turned 285K 2yo who worked very fast.

Readthefootnotes set the track on fire going 3/8ths at Timonium and was a 320K buy - a ton for a NY bred coming out of the Timonium 2yo sale.

High Finance was an M & H that I think worked fast.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Rick Violette with 2yo's on dirt at Saratoga since '98:

24-for-88 (27.3%) $3.86 ROI

In 2yo dirt races at Saratoga that are 5.5fs or shorter:

15-for-41 (36.6% wins) $4.45 ROI


Again ... a lot of the damage was done in the late 90's - Indian Charlie can tell you how I was a rabid Violette fan ten years ago. It took a while for me to figure out why he was so great with these obscurely bred types sprinting at Saratoga.

How about breaking this out yearly since 2005 at Saratoga?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Why is he so great?

He's great with them because he gets the right kind and he doesn't try and train the speed out of them.

Say you've got one owner who wants to buy 8 horses for 200K a piece.

You can go the Zito way and try to buy the 8 as yearlings looking for fairly nicely bred well put together classic types. Or you can buy 8 horses from Ocala and Timonium that don't have the best breeding or conformation - but are very quick.

If you go the former - you're not going to look like much of a debut trainer. If you go with the latter - you're probably going to look like a good debut trainer.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think so. They were all his type of 2yo though - the fast pinhook.

Dream Rush was a 90k yl turned 285K 2yo who worked very fast.

Readthefootnotes set the track on fire going 3/8ths at Timonium and was a 320K buy - a ton for a NY bred coming out of the Timonium 2yo sale.

High Finance was an M & H that I think worked fast.

While they were all pricey 2YO plays, my thinking was that we're starting to see a trend where most of Violette's early-season 2YO winners become one-hit wonders (perhaps with the exception of Worstcasescenario). I know that we're looking at a small sample size, but it may not be a coincidence that, of the four horses that you mentioned that "went on with it," only Read the Footnotes broke his maiden at Saratoga. High Finance, for example, didn't even debut until he was a 3YO.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Or he is the guy who drafted Eli Manning first overall in their fantasy draft because he is a Giants fan.

The last 3 Fasig Tipon Calder sales toppers all raced as 2yo's.

2009: Sales topper Al Zir won his debut handily by 4 lengths at Newmarket against a 14 horse field. He went off at 9/5 odds. He also won his 2nd start and than was 3rd in a Group 1 stakes 3rd time out.

2008: Desert Party won his debut by 4 lengths going 4.5 furlongs at Arlington Park. He won the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga over Vinyard Haven second time out

2007: The Leopard was 2nd in his debut at Belmont to a Rick Violette debut winner. He won his second start going 6fs on the dirt at Saratoga with a 94 Beyer. Ended up 3-for-6 as a 2yo with two stakes win - one was a Graded Stakes win.

Generally - these horses that top that sale and make the races at age 2 aren't slow pieces of crap that often. Lion Heart topped this sale about 10 years - he was amazing as a 2yo.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

How about breaking this out yearly since 2005 at Saratoga?

2010: 1-for-5
2009: 3-for-10
2008: 2-for-5
2007: 2-for-12
2006: 4-for-14
2005: 2-for-12

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The last 3 Fasig Tipon Calder sales toppers all raced as 2yo's.

2009: Sales topper Al Zir won his debut handily by 4 lengths at Newmarket against a 14 horse field. He went off at 9/5 odds. He also won his 2nd start and than was 3rd in a Group 1 stakes 3rd time out.

2008: Desert Party won his debut by 4 lengths going 4.5 furlongs at Arlington Park. He won the Sanford Stakes at Saratoga over Vinyard Haven second time out

2007: The Leopard was 2nd in his debut at Belmont to a Rick Violette debut winner. He won his second start going 6fs on the dirt at Saratoga with a 94 Beyer. Ended up 3-for-6 as a 2yo with two stakes win - one was a Graded Stakes win.

Generally - these horses that top that sale and make the races at age 2 aren't slow pieces of crap that often. Lion Heart topped this sale about 10 years - he was amazing as a 2yo.

His debut BC weekend at Santa Anita was arguably the best dirt performance of the entire weekend (outside of perhaps Cajun Beat.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

While they were all pricey 2YO plays, my thinking was that we're starting to see a trend where most of Violette's early-season 2YO winners become one-hit wonders (perhaps with the exception of Worstcasescenario). I know that we're looking at a small sample size, but it may not be a coincidence that, of the four horses that you mentioned that "went on with it," only Read the Footnotes broke his maiden at Saratoga. High Finance, for example, didn't even debut until he was a 3YO.

Shouldn't they become one hit wonders though?

There's only been one trainer since '98 that has won with more 2yo debuters at Saratoga than Violette - and his name is Todd Pletcher and he's had over a hundred more to debut than Violette.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Shouldn't they become one hit wonders though?

There's only been one trainer since '98 that has won with more 2yo debuters at Saratoga than Violette - and his name is Todd Pletcher and he's had over a hundred more to debut than Violette.

Should they? Somehow, I suspect that they're not paying significant six-figures sums to win a maiden race worth $50K, only to have the horse never be heard from again. Winning a debut race is great, but at what cost to the horse's future. I'm not saying it's necessarily Violette's fault. We don't know, for example, what pressure an owner is placing on him to get the horses to the races early. In this regard, the Klaravich horses that others are training also seem to be getting to the races relatively early.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by johnny pinwheel

amen brother and so is betting heavily on those two year old races. throw darts...pick your favorite number or color.....i hope everyone had valiant passion at 30-1.....she won like she was 1-9....i guess she was working badly .....lol.....lol. bet those ridiculous races at your own risk! a little , yeah, if you get lucky...so be it. if you are betting them like you seriously know what might happen....you are a moron.

I happen to like betting heavilly on 2yo mdn races....but then again I am a moron

...and i will be betting against Brock

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

I happen to like betting heavilly on 2yo mdn races....but then again I am a moron

...and i will be betting against Brock

How is Sightseek's colt looking? There was a photo of him on Tod Mark's page, he has a beard.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

How is Sightseek's colt looking? There was a photo of him on Tod Mark's page, he has a beard.

I'm over on the main ...most of the Mott's are working over on Oklahoma....he now has a name "Raison d'Etat"

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Payson Dave

I'm over on the main ...most of the Mott's are working over on Oklahoma....he now has a name "Raison d'Etat"

Do you know who Pletcher had out galloping before the break on Sunday? I was out there, but there were a bunch of non-discript bays.

Saw Trappe Shot that day.

[Payson Dave]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Do you know who Pletcher had out galloping before the break on Sunday? I was out there, but there were a bunch of non-discript bays.

Saw Trappe Shot that day.

My notes show who worked and how... but the gallopers I don't recall.

[Round Pen]

Brock will eventually be the Best horse to Come out of this race, but it won't be tomorrow, the colt wants to run All day long and tomorrows race is to short. He's definitely a 2 turn horse...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Should they? Somehow, I suspect that they're not paying significant six-figures sums to win a maiden race worth $50K, only to have the horse never be heard from again. Winning a debut race is great, but at what cost to the horse's future. I'm not saying it's necessarily Violette's fault. We don't know, for example, what pressure an owner is placing on him to get the horses to the races early. In this regard, the Klaravich horses that others are training also seem to be getting to the races relatively early.

Better to win that MSW race early than win no race at all.

I think a lot of those horses are simply very precocius types who are fast and way ahead of the game early. A lot of them also have had it put to them early on to be so sharp for the sales.

I agree with you that it's stupid to pay 200K for a horse just to win a 50K MSW race right away. If they sold them all right after those sharp early scores - their ROI might be a lot better.

It's not like the guys buying the yearlings are doing any better. They'll spend 200K on one - and sometimes you finally see a few published works at age 3 - the horse runs once or twice - peforms badly and that's it. Sometimes they never even start at all.

Violette shouldn't be expected to develop his horses like a Zito or Bill Mott might just because he wins more often with them as debuting 2yos at Saratoga. Those guys have a million more horses - and those guys debuters typically run like first time starters. Violette doesn't have the quantity - and his debuters often run like they've already started 7 different times.

[Betsy]

Brock is taking money at 3-1, but none of the other firsters are; Stay Thirsty is even money with 7 minutes to post