Shirreffs says Zenyatta deserves '10 Horse of the Year

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Oh she showed up at Oaklawn? Give her the award....forget the BC. Just give it to her now.

Where did I say that? I was very specific about how I think she wins the award. If QR, Blame or Lucky win the Classic, she wont be HOY.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Where did I say that? I was very specific about how I think she wins the award. If QR, Blame or Lucky win the Classic, she wont be HOY.

You didn't say it. I did. You brought it up as an example of why she should be HOY. I just wanted to match the absurdness.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You didn't say it. I did. You brought it up as an example of why she should be HOY. I just wanted to match the absurdness.

IC

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

IC

ok...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Where did I say that? I was very specific about how I think she wins the award. If QR, Blame or Lucky win the Classic, she wont be HOY.

Honestly I don't really care who wins HOY, to me it's rather tiring to have these discussions, but I would really like to hear from all those that wouldn't vote for Zenyatta even if she went on to win the BC Classic, if not her then who? At times I think the logic here is to say let's punish a horse for not travelling all but for 2 races and let's reward HOY for the mediocrity in QR and or Blame have shown in their last 2 races especially if they do not go on to win the BC Classic. Are these 2 more deserved of HOY? It makes absolutely no sense to me.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by CSC

Honestly I don't really care who wins HOY, to me it's rather tiring to have these discussions, but I would really like to hear from all those that wouldn't vote for Zenyatta even if she went on to win the BC Classic, if not her then who? At times I think the logic here is to say let's punish a horse for not travelling all but for 2 races and let's reward HOY for the mediocrity in QR and or Blame have shown in their last 2 races especially if they do not go on to win the BC Classic. Are these 2 more deserved of HOY? It makes absolutely no sense to me.

In my opinion if Blind Luck or Proviso were to go on and win their respective races, they would have had as good, if not better years than Zenyatta. They traveled and faced better competition more consistently. I don't believe in rewarding ducking.

Sitting out, while the best run against each other, then sweeping up at the end doesn't do it for me. Just my opinion and I'm sure I'm in the minority. That's ok.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by CSC

Honestly I don't really care who wins HOY, to me it's rather tiring to have these discussions, but I would really like to hear from all those that wouldn't vote for Zenyatta even if she went on to win the BC Classic, if not her then who? At times I think the logic here is to say let's punish a horse for not travelling all but for 2 races and let's reward HOY for the mediocrity in QR and or Blame have shown in their last 2 races especially if they do not go on to win the BC Classic. Are these 2 more deserved of HOY? It makes absolutely no sense to me.

Anyone who would vote for any horse other than her if she wins the BC Classic has an axe to grind.

There's nothing similar to the situations that prevent a BC Classic winner from winning HOTY in place this year. I mean if Proviso wins the Mile (which will lead me to have a heart attack) then she should get some admiration but the vote ought to be unanimous.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Anyone who would vote for any horse other than her if she wins the BC Classic has an axe to grind.

There's nothing similar to the situations that prevent a BC Classic winner from winning HOTY in place this year. I mean if Proviso wins the Mile (which will lead me to have a heart attack) then she should get some admiration but the vote ought to be unanimous.

Get ready for that Heart Attack big guy.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Anyone who would vote for any horse other than her if she wins the BC Classic is out of their mind.

There's nothing similar to the situations that prevent a BC Classic winner from winning HOTY in place this year. I mean if Proviso wins the Mile (which will lead me to have a heart attack) then she should get some admiration but the vote ought to be unanimous.

I understand what you are saying and if Zenyatta wins the Classic, she'll be HOY and it'll be unamnimous. My point is, who will have had a better overall year? The award, to my understanding is supposed to be for accomplishments over the year.

I know I'm being stubborn, but their campaign is not a HOY campaign and I'm against rating the Breeders Cup as the be all end all.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Anyone who would vote for any horse other than her if she wins the BC Classic has an axe to grind.

There's nothing similar to the situations that prevent a BC Classic winner from winning HOTY in place this year. I mean if Proviso wins the Mile (which will lead me to have a heart attack) then she should get some admiration but the vote ought to be unanimous.

That race (the turf mile) has the makings as being the most interesting on the BC card. I hate making touts this far out, but if Gio Ponti does go in the mile, along with Rip V, and everyone's favorite and justifibly so Goldikova. Any upsetter could pay big divendends. Obviously Paco Boy could be the one, his turn of foot is huge, in europe on the long straights he hasn't been able to sustain it when racing against Goldikova, but at CD maybe he can.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think Z is 5-10 lenghts faster/better on any surface. Funny BL finds ways to lose. I think at least twice this year? Her wins are Kinda like Zenyatta, barley wins half the time.

I've been a Zenyatta fan since the beginning, but I think there's a fundamental problem with measuring her ability relative to other horses (even though I agree she is better than Blind Luck).

When everyone and their brother realizes you are the horse to beat, they ride the race to beat you.

If you are a high level speed horse, they throw a rabbit at you.

If you run like Zenyatta, they back down the pace as much as they can and force you to make your first move on the turn at the exact point the pace is picking up sharply. That in turn forces you to out finish the fresh horses in front of you after already exerting yourself hard just to get into contention.

No horse with her style that ever lived could have won by a large margin or ran a very fast race given some of the conditions she's faced this year and last year. Just look at some of the closing times! In fact, there are examples from last year of pretty good mares that were left in her wake given similar conditions.

The thing is, even if you know she's much better than the horses she's barely beating and capable of running a faster final time given a more "dirt like" pace, that still doesn't tell you how fast she's capable of running with more average conditions, whether she's as good on dirt as on synthetic, or whether she's even as good in 2010 as she was in 2008 and in the Classic in 2009.

If I had to venture a guess, I doubt her connections are sure either. They know what we know.

1. They've seen how fast her peak efforts were when she had a decent "synthetic level pace" in front of her.

2. They've seen how fast she ran in the 2008 Apple Blossom on dirt in only her 4th career start before she peaked on synthetic.

3. They've seen how she handles Hollywood's "DIRT" training track in regular morning gallops and know how she handled Churchill Downs when she was shipped there to run (but subsequently scratched when the track came up wet).

4. They know how she's doing physically now.

But the honest truth is that no one knows where she is now or how good she was at her peak because of the nature of synthetic racing and the conditions of most of her races. That's why people point to the streak. Until you are exposed to rough conditions and get beat a few times (like Blind Luck), you don't know where the bottom is. And running reasonably fast when conditions warrant and managing to win even when conditions are terrible signals there's a pretty deep bottom.

She may be a major contender to win the Classic despite running slowly this year and barely beating some very mediocre rivals that would be 100-1 in the Classic.

She might finish well beaten because she's not as good this year as she was last year and in 2008 or doesn't like the dirt as much.

She might get beat but run a very good race.

You look at the odds and make your bet based on the tools you use to evaluate things like that.

All her connections have been trying to do is give her the best chance they can of her firing her "A" race on that day. They avoided many of the possible challenges along the way because they didn't want to go to CD with a tired horse or to lose her for the year to an accumulation of small injuries as a tough season developed. Right or wrong, that was the plan and it seems to at least have gotten her there in one piece and fresh. They more or less did what they did last year. It failed to get her HOTY in 2009 because there was a once in 100 year great campaign by another horse. They gambled that wouldn't happen again and they would get HOTY if they could repeat in the Classic.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

In my opinion if Blind Luck or Proviso were to go on and win their respective races, they would have had as good, if not better years than Zenyatta. They traveled and faced better competition more consistently. I don't believe in rewarding ducking.

Sitting out, while the best run against each other, then sweeping up at the end doesn't do it for me. Just my opinion and I'm sure I'm in the minority. That's ok.

I am just looking forward to her racing on dirt, against the boys at 1 1/4. As everyone knows here, I think she can handle it. But there is always that 1% doubt no matter how confident one is, is can she do it? HOY will take care of itself, but for me this is not why I am watching the BC.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by CSC

I am just looking forward to her racing on dirt, against the boys at 1 1/4. As everyone knows here, I think she can handle it. But there is always that 1% doubt no matter how confident one is, is can she do it? HOY will take care of itself, but for me this is not why I am watching the BC.

I don't think most bettors are watching the BC to see who will be HOY. But that is what the discussion is about in this thread.

[Smooth Operator]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I've been a Zenyatta fan since the beginning, but I think there's a fundamental problem with measuring her ability relative to other horses (even though I agree she is better than Blind Luck).

When everyone and their brother realizes you are the horse to beat, they ride the race to beat you.

If you are a high level speed horse, they throw a rabbit at you.

If you run like Zenyatta, they back down the pace as much as they can and force you to make your first move on the turn at the exact point the pace is picking up sharply. That in turn forces you to out finish the fresh horses in front of you after already exerting yourself hard just to get into contention.

No horse with her style that ever lived could have won by a large margin or ran a very fast race given some of the conditions she's faced this year and last year. Just look at some of the closing times! In fact, there are examples from last year of pretty good mares that were left in her wake given similar conditions.

The thing is, even if you know she's much better than the horses she's barely beating and capable of running a faster final time given a more "dirt like" pace, that still doesn't tell you how fast she's capable of running with more average conditions, whether she's as good on dirt as on synthetic, or whether she's even as good in 2010 as she was in 2008 and in the Classic in 2009.

If I had to venture a guess, I doubt her connections are sure either. They know what we know.

1. They've seen how fast her peak efforts were when she had a decent "synthetic level pace" in front of her.

2. They've seen how fast she ran in the 2008 Apple Blossom on dirt in only her 4th career start before she peaked on synthetic.

3. They've seen how she handles Hollywood's "DIRT" training track in regular morning gallops and know how she handled Churchill Downs when she was shipped there to run (but subsequently scratched when the track came up wet).

4. They know how she's doing physically now.

But the honest truth is that no one knows where she is now or how good she was at her peak because of the nature of synthetic racing and the conditions of most of her races. That's why people point to the streak. Until you are exposed to rough conditions and get beat a few times (like Blind Luck), you don't know where the bottom is. And running reasonably fast when conditions warrant and managing to win even when conditions are terrible signals there's a pretty deep bottom.

She may be a major contender to win the Classic despite running slowly this year and barely beating some very mediocre rivals that would be 100-1 in the Classic.

She might finish well beaten because she's not as good this year as she was last year and in 2008 or doesn't like the dirt as much.

She might get beat but run a very good race.

You look at the odds and make your bet based on the tools you use to evaluate things like that.

All her connections have been trying to do is give her the best chance they can of her firing her "A" race on that day. They avoided many of the possible challenges along the way because they didn't want to go to CD with a tired horse or to lose her for the year to an accumulation of small injuries as a tough season developed. Right or wrong, that was the plan and it seems to at least have gotten her there in one piece and fresh. They more or less did what they did last year. It failed to get her HOTY in 2009 because there was a once in 100 year great campaign by another horse. They gambled that wouldn't happen again and they would get HOTY if they could repeat in the Classic.

Fine post … particularly the highlighted sentences … and especially that last paragraph


Like I said on here before, John never took his eye off the ball (BCC)

The campaign was designed to get her to that contest fresh and primed to deliver a peak performance (amazing how many on this board can't seem to understand this).

Forget about HotY … a 6-year-old MARE taking down back-to-back Classics would be INSANE … not to mention HISTORIC…

[Danzig]

i think people are getting hung up on the fact that its zenyatta being talked about, and they get hung up on her entire career. hoy is for this year only, and if it was any horse not named zenyatta with the same season shes had, they wouldnt even be on the radar.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I understand what you are saying and if Zenyatta wins the Classic, she'll be HOY and it'll be unamnimous. My point is, who will have had a better overall year? The award, to my understanding is supposed to be for accomplishments over the year.

I know I'm being stubborn, but their campaign is not a HOY campaign and I'm against rating the Breeders Cup as the be all end all.

I agree with this. Wouldn't 3 male/open company G1s throughout the year defeat 1 open company G1 and some female G1s?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

What bothers me the most about Team Zenyatta is they think everyone has the horse racing acumen of Smooth Operator.

But....if they spend a lot of time watching TVG that could be a relatively easy assumption to make.

[Thunder Gulch]

Anyone outside of the nutty Zenyatta fans- and there are a lot of them- has enough common sense to know she can't lose to Blame, QR, or even Lucky and still win HOY. If an outsider wins, she has a good shot even though it's pretty clear that she hasn't had the best campaign (2010) to this point. If she wins it's hers. Hopefully it won't set the precedent for how to win the award in the future by ducking competition until the end, but there would be no way to deny her if it's won on this track.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by miraja2

But....if they spend a lot of time watching TVG that could be a relatively easy assumption to make.

or just tune into this place on a daily basis

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Hopefully it won't set the precedent for how to win the award in the future by ducking competition until the end, but there would be no way to deny her if it's won on this track.

I think this is where we sometimes can get into a bit of a double standard.

I 100% agree that her 2010 campaign has been weak for a HOTY candidate because typically HOTY goes to a horse that competed in either the Triple Crown races and/or a series of Grade 1 races open to older males. It's rare that a mare is even in the conversation.

Right or wrong, she's part of the conversation partly because of her overall record and partly because of her win in the Classic last year.

The thing is, no one required mares like Personal Ensign, Bayakoa, Go for Wand, etc... to compete in Grade 1 races open to males all year long before getting any respect and none of those all time greats even considered running in the Classic. So they more or less took themselves out of consideration for HOTY unless all the males sucked. Zenyatta is taking a shot.

I think the Classic is one part of the overall picture and should probably be weighed the strongest because other than the Derby (restricted to 3YOs) it's the only race where all the best horses around the world get together. So it's typically by far the highest quality race of the year.

How you weigh it vs. other accomplishments is open to debate, but I don't think a mare should be punished for doing as much or more than some of the other great mares before her. They all primarily run against their own sex and take a selective shot here or there against top males and it's usually a weak field. Some don't even go that far. Only Azeri tried the Classic. I don't think the standard should be that any mare that wants consideration should have to compete against Grade 1 males all year long. It's not going to happen when there are easier pickings and lower demands on the horses staying with their own sex most of the season.

The few exceptions are 3YO fillies that compete in Triple Crown preps and the actual Triple Crown races against other 3YOs. The reason that happens more often is that fillies tend to develop sooner than colts and are often competitive with 3YO colts UNTIL later in the season when the colts develop further and move past them.