Ride on Normandy Invasion

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Isn't the 2nd quarter at 1 1/4 run partially around the 1st turn? Him being on the inside may have more to do with that.

Possible it had something to do with it, but usually horses that establish position inside are good, not moving up, while those outside try to push forward to get inside more. Anything is possible, but moving that much into a pace that fast is a death sentence almost every single time I've seen it done. I don't think people realize just how taxing that pace was.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by JJP

I saw the piece and it was pretty clear there was some very deep paths. Orb appeared to be on the good part out in the center of the track, and Revolutionary closed on a good rail.

While I doubt the track was "even", I'm not so sure it matters much how it feels to a 110 pound woman walking on it compared to 1000 pound horses. It is very possible the footing underneath was not like what was on top.

[MaTH716]

I think that Javy started his early move because he saw Stevens starting to move on Oxbow. In my opinion Stevens is the one who made the real premature move. He was in the garden spot, saving all the groud. He even looked relatively clean heading for home, why did he go so early? That's the ride that should be put on the microscope more than Javy's.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While I doubt the track was "even", I'm not so sure it matters much how it feels to a 110 pound woman walking on it compared to 1000 pound horses. It is very possible the footing underneath was not like what was on top.

This is a good point.

[Travis Stone]

The pace was brutal. The race completely fell apart. Oxbow was the only horse within a sniff of the pace who ran on in the stretch.

In 2012, Creative Cause made the same move while I'll Have Another just cruised into position. In 2011 Nehro made the same move and was passed late. In 2010 it was Noble's Promise. In 2009 it was Pioneerof the Nile. And so on. Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro.

Obviously, every race is different. Normandy Invasion was asked to commit with 3 1/2 to go while three wide. He made the lead 2 1/2 furlongs out. Combine that with being relatively close to the supersonic pace, my handicapping gut tells me with a more patient ride, the stretch drive is a different story. Same outcome? Who knows. But, definitely a different story.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Just that 11 horses didn't manage to finish ahead of him despite his riders egregious mistiming. Perhaps some of those may have done better had then laid closer? And if NI's ride was egregious then what do you call Mike Smiths or John Velasquez's or Trujillo's or Kriggers?

Or Gomez for having VyJack contesting that pace.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The pace was brutal. The race completely fell apart. Oxbow was the only horse within a sniff of the pace who ran on in the stretch.

In 2012, Creative Cause made the same move while I'll Have Another just cruised into position. In 2011 Nehro made the same move and was passed late. In 2010 it was Noble's Promise. In 2009 it was Pioneerof the Nile. And so on. Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro.

Obviously, every race is different. Normandy Invasion was asked to commit with 3 1/2 to go while three wide. He made the lead 2 1/2 furlongs out. Combine that with being relatively close to the supersonic pace, my handicapping gut tells me with a more patient ride, the stretch drive is a different story. Same outcome? Who knows. But, definitely a different story.

Unless its a different outcome whats the point? Either you think NI would have beaten Orb if he would have been 4 or 5 lengths further off the pace and moved at the same time as Orb or not.. If you think Orb was losing to NI perhaps you will just get a sweeter price in the Travers

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by jms62

Or Gomez for having VyJack contesting that pace.

Oh this was clearly just a prep for the Preakness

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I had him in the Pick 5, but I also had five other horses including the winner, so it's not as if him not winning ruined my day.

If his early move was an optical illusion based on others stopping, how come there was no one even close to moving with him? If taking on the leaders that early was just a natural progression of the race's dynamics, shouldn't there have been other horses following his move then? But there were none. It was just Javier, hard-sending after speed that was about to collapse and then getting passed over the top by more patient riders.

This is a fair question. But first there seems to be some kind of disparity in the opinions of many not WHETHER he made an early move but when it occured. After 6 furlongs had been run NI was in 6th place 2 1/2 lengths in front of IMLD, who was another length clear of Charming Kitten. Other than the pacesetter, who was 3 1/2 lengths in front of Oxbow, that 2 1/2 length separation was the largest in the field. Every horse in front of NI had run a faster 1/2 mile and a faster 6 furlongs. To my way of thinking it was this point in the race where his chances were compromised.

To answer your question, the closest horse behind him was going backwards and all of the movement was occuring well back in the pack, so there were horses moving with him, but they were so far back the eye doesn't see them gaining on him, it sees the horses that were just in front of him falling behind. From the 1/2 mile pole to the 1/4 pole he had every right to pass the horses that had run faster than he did up to that point. It wasn't as if he cleared 5 lengths on Oxbow at the 1/4 pole.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

This is as indefensible an absolute as someone that says Normandy Invasion would definitely have won had he been ridden well.

There are a lot of misconceptions in racing, but to me, few things are as misunderstood as how seemingly minor events in a race can dramatically affect the outcome. The ride on Normandy Invasion was far from a minor event.

Let me pose a question that hasn't been asked....if Orb had gotten the same ride/trip that Normandy Invasion did, and Normandy Invasion had gotten Orb's trip and ride, what do you think the outcome would have looked like?

This is a great question and it shouldn't be restricted to these two horses. There are limitations on who should be compared I suppose, but how about placing Oxbow into NI's trip for a second, or Verrazano ? I understand these two horses are usually placed close to the front end but given the way the Wood was run it wouldn't be inconceivable to think that Verrazano could have sat further back than he did in the Derby. As much as NI's ride cost him a better placement there were others in this race who ran faster than he did early on and whose chances were compromised just as much if not more.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Flower Alley did something similar.

In fact I think that should go down as one of the all time worst Derby rides, think it was Chavez.

It was Chavez, and it was the reason some of us weren't at all surprised he went on to have the success he did later that year.

[tiggerv]

I needed Normandy Invasion so count me among the people unhappy about the ride. I broke out my old Fat Chart program to show the graphic of the race. It doesn't look great this small but maybe it is helpful. X-axis is race distance, Y-axis is lengths back, colors are saddle cloth

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

This is a fair question. But first there seems to be some kind of disparity in the opinions of many not WHETHER he made an early move but when it occured. After 6 furlongs had been run NI was in 6th place 2 1/2 lengths in front of IMLD, who was another length clear of Charming Kitten. Other than the pacesetter, who was 3 1/2 lengths in front of Oxbow, that 2 1/2 length separation was the largest in the field. Every horse in front of NI had run a faster 1/2 mile and a faster 6 furlongs. To my way of thinking it was this point in the race where his chances were compromised.

To answer your question, the closest horse behind him was going backwards and all of the movement was occuring well back in the pack, so there were horses moving with him, but they were so far back the eye doesn't see them gaining on him, it sees the horses that were just in front of him falling behind. From the 1/2 mile pole to the 1/4 pole he had every right to pass the horses that had run faster than he did up to that point. It wasn't as if he cleared 5 lengths on Oxbow at the 1/4 pole.

Fair point, but those moves at the back of the pack were being made more out of necessity so those horses didn't have 20 lengths to make up at the top of the stretch, whereas Javier, thanks to NI's tactical speed, had much more flexibility in when he decided to go after the leaders.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by JimmyEllis

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip. Very few, if any, win with NI's trip.

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip? I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. There were horses who had much better trips than Orb (such as Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and maybe a couple of others) and they still finished behind him. All the horses with bad trips got beat by a million lengths (except for Normandy Invasion and Oxbow). Are you suggesting that some horse that got beat by 30 lengths would have won with a better trip?

The only horse that anyone could possibly say might have won with a better trip is NI. If he and Orb got identical trips, my opinion is that Orb still wins, but I could see someone disagreeing.

Anyway, I have the same opinion as 95% of the posters here. I think NI was too close and I think he moved too soon. I think it cost him 2nd place. I think he would have easily been 2nd with a more patient ride.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Did you guys read that Chad Brown is now considering the Preakness for Normandy Invasion? As you all know, he originally said that he was not running. Now he is saying that they may run. They're going to see how the horse does over the next several days and then make a decision.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

Any number of horses win with Orb's trip? I have no idea how you came to that conclusion. There were horses who had much better trips than Orb (such as Golden Soul, Revolutionary, and maybe a couple of others) and they still finished behind him. All the horses with bad trips got beat by a million lengths (except for Normandy Invasion and Oxbow). Are you suggesting that some horse that got beat by 30 lengths would have won with a better trip?

The only horse that anyone could possibly say might have won with a better trip is NI. If he and Orb got identical trips, my opinion is that Orb still wins, but I could see someone disagreeing.

Anyway, I have the same opinion as 95% of the posters here. I think NI was too close and I think he moved too soon. I think it cost him 2nd place. I think he would have easily been 2nd with a more patient ride.

Revolutionary had a couple spots of trouble, not horrible but he might have been closer to Orb, though I doubt he is nearly the horse Orb is.

[ninetoone]

I'll start by saying I don't make a pimple on most of the handicapper's asses on here, but I do enjoy all the posts & I've been on the board since the beginning & even the original Yahoo board. I'm just a weekend warrior who knows a little more than the average wing nut out there. The way I see it is that Javier gave a horse with a lot of prior excuses a chance to prove that he was a champion, and the horse just didn't have it. I know JC's getting hammered on here for this, but the fact of the matter is, he's been on a couple of awesome horses in his career & he knows what a truly special horse can do. Orb's time was fairly ordinary & so was the Beyer (I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong). As Travis said in his post, "Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro." JC gave NI a chance to prove that he was one of those special types & he was wrong. The winning time was 2:02.89, nothing special...the way I see it, JC made the decision that he had the best horse & a horse that could sustain that kind of bid & run. If you could have frozen time at a mile & maybe even showed him his fractions, would he change anything? I'm not sure, maybe, maybe not. if he wrangles him back & loses, he gets criticized for that too I guess. I'm not sure if the Barbaro & Big Brown Derbies are good analogies or not as far as internal fractions, etc....but I did bet Barbaro (the last time I had a winner) and I remember being happy at the top of the stretch that Prado was going to at least give me a chance to be right....and I felt the same way the other day. Sorry for the rambling post & please be gentle, I'm just a layperson that thoroughly enjoys the discussion!!

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

I'll start by saying I don't make a pimple on most of the handicapper's asses on here, but I do enjoy all the posts & I've been on the board since the beginning & even the original Yahoo board. I'm just a weekend warrior who knows a little more than the average wing nut out there. The way I see it is that Javier gave a horse with a lot of prior excuses a chance to prove that he was a champion, and the horse just didn't have it. I know JC's getting hammered on here for this, but the fact of the matter is, he's been on a couple of awesome horses in his career & he knows what a truly special horse can do. Orb's time was fairly ordinary & so was the Beyer (I know someone will correct me if I'm wrong). As Travis said in his post, "Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro." JC gave NI a chance to prove that he was one of those special types & he was wrong. The winning time was 2:02.89, nothing special...the way I see it, JC made the decision that he had the best horse & a horse that could sustain that kind of bid & run. If you could have frozen time at a mile & maybe even showed him his fractions, would he change anything? I'm not sure, maybe, maybe not. if he wrangles him back & loses, he gets criticized for that too I guess. I'm not sure if the Barbaro & Big Brown Derbies are good analogies or not as far as internal fractions, etc....but I did bet Barbaro (the last time I had a winner) and I remember being happy at the top of the stretch that Prado was going to at least give me a chance to be right....and I felt the same way the other day. Sorry for the rambling post & please be gentle, I'm just a layperson that thoroughly enjoys the discussion!!

I'm not sure I understand your logic. I agree with you that if NI was some incredible horse (for example Secretariat), that he could have won the race, even with the premature move. How is that relevant? NI is not Secretariat.

NI got a bad ride and it cost him a couple of lengths. Nobody on here said that NI was Secretariat. Nobody on here said that the race NI ran in the Derby was as good as the race Barbaro ran in the Derby. All we said was that NI's chances were compromised by a premature move.

I think 95% of experienced handicappers share the belief that NI would have run 2nd with a more patient ride. I really don't think it takes a genius to see that NI moved too soon. A lot of us on here disagree about a lot of things when it comes to handicapping and watching races but we pretty much all agree that NI moved too soon. It's not a close call.

[PatCummings]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Let me pose a question that hasn't been asked....if Orb had gotten the same ride/trip that Normandy Invasion did, and Normandy Invasion had gotten Orb's trip and ride, what do you think the outcome would have looked like?

Orb runs up the track, Normandy Invasion finishes better than he did. Cut and dry.

[RockHardTen1985]

Normandy Invasion has a single maiden win to his resume. I believe he is overrated just like his jockey.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm not sure I understand your logic. I agree with you that if NI was some incredible horse (for example Secretariat), that he could have won the race, even with the premature move. How is that relevant? NI is not Secretariat.

NI got a bad ride and it cost him a couple of lengths. Nobody on here said that NI was Secretariat. Nobody on here said that the race NI ran in the Derby was as good as the race Barbaro ran in the Derby. All we said was that NI's chances were compromised by a premature move.

I think 95% of experienced handicappers share the belief that NI would have run 2nd with a more patient ride. I really don't think it takes a genius to see that NI moved too soon. A lot of us on here disagree about a lot of things when it comes to handicapping and watching races but we pretty much all agree that NI moved too soon. It's not a close call.

I guess what I'm saying is that, for example, a 2:02 flat (for example) final time was not completely unreasonable for NI even considering the fractions of the race. That's not asking him to be Secretariat at all...just a little better caliber horse. If he was able to get him home in 2:02 flat, he wins by 4 lengths or so & everyone is on JC's jock. Instead, he gives the horse an opportunity to succeed.& he's the goat. One of the things I thought I learned on this board over the years from people like BTW was that it's mostly the horse & not so much the jockey. I guess I just don't see it as the gross blunder that everyone else seems to view it as...and I personally don't believe it cost NI the win.