Pletcher ... Same Old Story

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with everything else you said---however, I don't understand what you mean by the above quote.

Besides Circular Quay, I felt his other four runners had all the proper preparation for the race.

There are some highly respected handicappers, who have a choice of the entire field, and fail to come up with the winner year-after-year in this race.

I don't believe a single post time favorite won this race in the entire decade of the 80's and 90's...zero-for-twenty. I don't believe Pletcher has ever had the favorite or second favorite in this race.

If he can get horses like Bluegrass Cat, Invisible Ink, and Impeachment to run in the top three---with the massive stable of top prospects he gets every year...it's only a matter of time.

Bluegrass Cat was the Derby favorite as of January 1, 2006. I know that's usually useless as tits on a bull, but this year's Derby favorite on Jan 1 DID win, and I attribute a lot of that to the trainer's efforts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Link me to where Bluegrass Cat was the Derby favorite on Jan 1st 2006 at?

Stevie Wonderboy was still in training at that time, off of his record figure win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I felt Bluegrass was a highly overrated 2yo myself...but I can't ever remember him being a future book favorite, or a consensus #1 choice. He was something like 40/1 come raceday....albeit off of two mediocre races.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with everything else you said---however, I don't understand what you mean by the above quote.

Besides Circular Quay, I felt his other four runners had all the proper preparation for the race.

I believe that he is too soft on them especially considering 4 of them were training on polytrack. Regardless of the talent level, I have yet to see a Derby winner trained as lightly as his horses were this year. I have no information on the physical status of the horses coming into the race but Scat Daddy and CQ were trained very lightly.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Link me to where Bluegrass Cat was the Derby favorite on Jan 1st 2006 at?

Stevie Wonderboy was still in training at that time, off of his record figure win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. I felt Bluegrass was a highly overrated 2yo myself...but I can't ever remember him being a future book favorite, or a consensus #1 choice. He was something like 40/1 come raceday....albeit off of two mediocre races.

In Vegas, he was the future book favorite as soon as Stevie W got hurt (I guess that was in the first Cal race of the year for 3YO's, so not TECHNICALLY Jan 1.) About 10-1ish at the time.

(actually he ran 3 times at 3, won the Sam Davis with about a 103 Beyer, 2nd in the Tampa Derby with a 104, and bombed as the favorite in the Blue Grass on the ridiculous old Keeneland surface.)

Originally Posted by pgardn

He is a young man.
He will win a Derby.
He will win another Derby.
All this will go away.


Not if he keeps trying to do things "his way".

I would of course be willing to make a future wager on this. But I just dont know how long it will take. If Pletcher keeps getting the horses he does. I think the probability is very high that he does what I posted. Therefore I would wager on it.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pgardn

I would of course be willing to make a future wager on this. But I just dont know how long it will take. If Pletcher keeps getting the horses he does. I think the probability is very high that he does what I posted. Therefore I would wager on it.

In England, they'll give you a line. Some guy bet he would live to 90 and they gave him action.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I believe that he is too soft on them especially considering 4 of them were training on polytrack. Regardless of the talent level, I have yet to see a Derby winner trained as lightly as his horses were this year. I have no information on the physical status of the horses coming into the race but Scat Daddy and CQ were trained very lightly.

OK, I thought you meant from a racing standpoint and not a workout standpoint.

Wouldn't Curlin strike you as a horse who was majorly undertrained coming into the race? I realize his trainer got him after a wire-to-wire 7 furlong maiden score. I saw tape of his final two works leading into the Derby, and from what I understand, he has pretty much been restrained throughout in every workout he's had for Assmussen.

Perhaps initally fearing that Curlin wouldn't rate, and might not out see out 10 furlongs, led to him being trained that way?

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

OK, I thought you meant from a racing standpoint and not a workout standpoint.

Wouldn't Curlin strike you as a horse who was majorly undertrained coming into the race? I realize his trainer got him after a wire-to-wire 7 furlong maiden score. I saw tape of his final two works leading into the Derby, and from what I understand, he has pretty much been restrained throughout in every workout he's had for Assmussen.

Perhaps initally fearing that Curlin wouldn't rate, and might not out see out 10 furlongs, led to him being trained that way?

tougher call because he was behind the 8 ball with a horse who got into the game so late. However he did race just 3 weeks prior.