3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances - Page 6

slotdirt · #**101** 04-13-2011, 10:22 AM

Flower Alley wasn't awful that year. Roman Ruler wasn't terrible either, though I think he missed the Triple Crown trail with an injury, if memory serves me correctly. Afleet Alex was the tops though.

Clip-Clop · #**102** 04-13-2011, 10:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

And his Travers, though in defeat, was a pretty remarkable training job by Nick Zito... off a 3+ month layoff, Bellamy Road leads the entire race with fractions of :47 2/5, 1:10 4/5 and a mile in 1:36 1/5 before giving it up late to the in-form Flower Alley, who just won the Jim Dandy by 5 lengths with a 112. Bellamy Road earned a 106 in the Travers.

Flower Alley came back and ran poorly in the Gold Cup, but rebounded with a 111 runner-up in the Classic. Roman Ruler (3rd nearly 3 lengths farther back) came back and ran second in the Goodwood to Rock Hard Ten with a 111 Beyer as well.

And Roman Ruler had just won the Haskell too.

Travis Stone · #**103** 04-13-2011, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

And Roman Ruler had just won the Haskell too.

Oh yeah... duh. I should have put that in there... good catch.

blackthroatedwind · #**104** 04-13-2011, 10:41 AM

Flower Alley was clearly the trip horse coming out of that Derby after being very foolishly sent after Spanish Chesnut, on the inside, halfway through the race. He ran sneaky well that day and showed great potential.

Travis Stone · #**105** 04-13-2011, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Flower Alley wasn't awful that year. Roman Ruler wasn't terrible either, though I think he missed the Triple Crown trail with an injury, if memory serves me correctly. Afleet Alex was the tops though.

Definitely...

By how many lengths would:

- Flower Alley
- Bellamy Road
- Roman Ruler
- Afleet Alex

...win this year's Kentucky Derby by?

Clip-Clop · #**106** 04-13-2011, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Definitely...

By how many lengths would:

- Flower Alley
- Bellamy Road
- Roman Ruler
- Afleet Alex

...win this year's Kentucky Derby by?

Considering the result in that derby...not too confident

NTamm1215 · #**107** 04-13-2011, 10:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Flower Alley was clearly the trip horse coming out of that Derby after being very foolishly sent after Spanish Chesnut, on the inside, halfway through the race. He ran sneaky well that day and showed great potential.

No way, an inconsistent Jorge Chavez ride? That never happens.

slotdirt · #**108** 04-13-2011, 11:14 AM

I'll go even further and say that Giacomo would be a major contender in the 2011 version. Dialed In is the 2011 version, and Giacomo, at least in my opinion, was a superior animal at this point in his career to Dialed In.

lemoncrush · #**109** 04-13-2011, 11:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I'll go even further and say that Giacomo would be a major contender in the 2011 version. Dialed In is the 2011 version, and Giacomo, at least in my opinion, was a superior animal at this point in his career to Dialed In.

I realize Giacomo hit the board in a lot of the California prep races, but didn't he just have a maiden win coming into the Derby? Seems like Dialed in has at least shown some flashes of brilliance, winning 3 out of 4 races, including an eye-catching move in his maiden win, and two graded stakes victories.

Different years, different competition, I know. But I disagree with that comparison all together. I don't think he's nearly the plodder that Giacomo was.

slotdirt · #**110** 04-13-2011, 11:23 AM

I think Dialed In is the definition of plodder. And Giacomo was probably faster. It's really applies and oranges though because both could end up Derby winners and neither be particularly fast.

Travis Stone · #**111** 04-13-2011, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Considering the result in that derby...not too confident

If you have a repeat of the same pace, then yeah, it'll be tough for anyone close. But I have a hard time believing, that even with the trip, Afleet Alex wouldn't overcome it and beat the group we're seeing this year.

Sightseek · #**112** 04-13-2011, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Definitely...

By how many lengths would:

- Flower Alley
- Bellamy Road
- Roman Ruler
- Afleet Alex

...win this year's Kentucky Derby by?

Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, Roman Ruler, Comma to the Top and The Factor would set it up great for Dialed In.

I just can't be confident that Rose wouldn't screw up again.

I can't look it up right now, but was J.V. on Flower Alley? I think Spanish Chestnut could have been a really nice horse had he not run in that Derby.

MaTH716 · #**113** 04-13-2011, 11:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Bellamy Road, Flower Alley, Roman Ruler, Comma to the Top and The Factor would set it up great for Dialed In.

I just can't be confident that Rose wouldn't screw up again.

I can't look it up right now, but was J.V. on Flower Alley? I think Spanish Chestnut could have been a really nice horse had he not run in that Derby.

J.V. was on Bandini. Chavez was on Flower Alley.

slotdirt · #**114** 04-13-2011, 11:58 AM

Spanish Chestnut, even after setting a 44 and whatever pace on Derby day, came back to be a decent enough sprinter later in his career. I liked that horse.

slotdirt · #**115** 04-13-2011, 12:17 PM

Was just watching the 2005 Triple Crown series, and either those were some serious nags running, or Afleet Alex was pretty special. Does anybody have his PP's anywhere?

Sightseek · #**116** 04-13-2011, 12:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Spanish Chestnut, even after setting a 44 and whatever pace on Derby day, came back to be a decent enough sprinter later in his career. I liked that horse.

He was laid off a year and never managed any better than allowance/optional claiming wins and 3rds in G2 and last in a G1. I guess anyone would say they would like to own that horse, but I think he would have been better off had he been pointed to the sprint stakes as a 3yo instead of being Nagdini's pacemaker.

slotdirt · #**117** 04-13-2011, 12:24 PM

No disagreement there. I was remembering his reasonable effort in the Commonwealth that, if memory serves, was won by Sun King, maybe?

blackthroatedwind · #**118** 04-13-2011, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think Dialed In is the definition of plodder. And Giacomo was probably faster. It's really applies and oranges though because both could end up Derby winners and neither be particularly fast.

Dialed In isn't a plodder.

cakes44 · #**119** 04-13-2011, 01:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

No way, an inconsistent Jorge Chavez ride? That never happens.

Did he ride him in that weird-@ss Lane's End as well?

dalakhani · #**120** 04-13-2011, 01:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I think Dialed In is the definition of plodder. And Giacomo was probably faster. It's really applies and oranges though because both could end up Derby winners and neither be particularly fast.

Plodder? LOL If anything, I would worry about distance more than speed with this horse. He looks like a closing miler to me but then again there isn't much of a body of work to support that thought.

I think maybe your computer is running slow. Might want to get that checked.