1/28 (GP): $12MM Pegasus World Cup

[cakes44]

Thank you sir.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

That button must have gotten stuck in the stretch of the Bc Classic.

Push button speed does not mean when you are in the stretch drive when you are asking for a hoss' best run. but then, you already knew that, right ? You figured you'd take the potshot anyway. You'd fit in with the Giants secondary

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by cakes44

So what is your prediction for post-time odds for each?

Arrogate 3:5 and CA Chrome around 7:5.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Arrogate 3:5 and CA Chrome around 7:5.

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by robfla

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

In a win pool of $1.5 to $2 million, I'm suspect of how much "fan" money is going to affect the odds, but you could be right.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by robfla

I think you are offering what the odds "should" be, not what they will be.

There will probably be a lot of "sentimental" or "fan" money on CC - it will be closer to 4:5 and 1:1 - but yes, Arrogate will be favored

I think fan money will be mostly small potatoes. The smart big money will certainly be scared off by the 12 hole.. I see 3:5 and 8:5 myself.. Any big money to be made will be in the horizontals in the improbable upset. They still need to run the race and crazy stuff could happen... Hopefully I can find a decent non favorite or 2 to single on the races leading up to this.

[ScottJ]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't understand why he would be in "plenty of traffic" or, really, even any traffic. Arrogate is fast. He will leave for position. Others may outrun him, but only if it's a reasonably quick pace, which means there will be separation in the field, which means there won't be traffic. The reason we have a lot of traffic issues these days is specifically because of the constant slow paces which bunches up the fields. This does not rate to happen in the Pegasus.

Interesting perspective as I did not project this race to be as strung out on the front end. On first glance, I could not see all three of Velazquez, Castellano, and Ortiz making this easy for the inside horse with Smith on board ... then I re-read your comment about the slow paces on our hometown NYRA circuit and was depending on the three key New York jockeys to cause the chaos.

[taxicab]

I'm thinking Frank Stronach really got lucky having Arrogate/Chrome make it to this race.
The appeal/talent level of the two main players is major.
Digging a bit more into Arrogate/Chrome:

Arrogate:
3yo Champion/jaw dropping final time in the Travers/highest ranked horse in the world/great company lines in his Gr. 1 races.
He's 2 for 2 in Gr.1's(major Gr.1's),defeating 10 Gr.1 winners (that's the stat that jumps out at you).

Chrome:
Dual Classic winner/Two time HOY/4 time Eclipse Award winner.........etc.
His Gr.1 resume is also huge.
He's 7 for 11 in Gr.1's........winning on 6 different courses(that might be his best stat).
He's beaten 19(at least) Gr.1 winning horses in his Gr.1 victories.
In fairness to Chrome,if you add up the amount of Gr.1 wins the 19 horses have accounted for the number bumps up quite a bit.

Moral of the post.....
I'd be surprised if future runnings of the Pegasus have the interest of this Saturday's race.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by taxicab

I'm thinking Frank Stronach really got lucky having Arrogate/Chrome make it to this race.
The appeal/talent level of the two main players is major.
Digging a bit more into Arrogate/Chrome:

Arrogate:
3yo Champion/jaw dropping final time in the Travers/highest ranked horse in the world/great company lines in his Gr. 1 races.
He's 2 for 2 in Gr.1's(major Gr.1's),defeating 10 Gr.1 winners (that's the stat that jumps out at you).

Chrome:
Dual Classic winner/Two time HOY/4 time Eclipse Award winner.........etc.
His Gr.1 resume is also huge.
He's 7 for 11 in Gr.1's........winning on 6 different courses(that might be his best stat).
He's beaten 19(at least) Gr.1 winning horses in his Gr.1 victories.
In fairness to Chrome,if you add up the amount of Gr.1 wins the 19 horses have accounted for the number bumps up quite a bit.

Moral of the post.....
I'd be surprised if future runnings of the Pegasus have the interest of this Saturday's race.

Yeah, next year it would take an Arrogate vs another Arrogate like horse to jump up in this crop of three year olds. Unlikely it will happen again.

[Secretriat34]

As I think back to 2004 and reflect on the top 2 finishers in the BCC and the DWC, I see a similarity between MDO and Pleasantly Perfect and this year’s top 2 BCC runners, Chrome and Arrogate. In 2017 however, 13 years later, the DWC has been replaced by the inaugural running of the Pegasus world cup.
The big difference this year is the distance. While both the BCC and DWC were run at 10f on dirt, the Pegasus is run at 9f. And this change alone makes it impractical to compare the winning situation. While in 2004 MDO was headed for victory to be caught at the 9.5 f mark by PP. as was CC in 2017 by Arrogate in the BCC. The shorter race at GP (9f) may make the end result quite different. AT the 9f mark in the 2016 Bcc CC was a winner, will CC be a winner at 9f at Gulfstream.
How much are you willing to wager on this ?

I read TVG is offering 10 to 1 odds on either CC or Arrogate to win
9f makes the PWC a different animal than the DWC, and the question to be asked is at 9f can a horse other than the top 2 be the winner ?..and if TVG is offering 10 to 1 , building up pool sizes, would a place bet on anyhorse other than CC or Arrow, be the best wager on the day, as the inflated pools will offer much value on the place winner if the top 2 finish 1,3..or even worse.

Thoughts ?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by Secretriat34

As I think back to 2004 and reflect on the top 2 finishers in the BCC and the DWC, I see a similarity between MDO and Pleasantly Perfect and this year’s top 2 BCC runners, Chrome and Arrogate. In 2017 however, 13 years later, the DWC has been replaced by the inaugural running of the Pegasus world cup.
The big difference this year is the distance. While both the BCC and DWC were run at 10f on dirt, the Pegasus is run at 9f. And this change alone makes it impractical to compare the winning situation. While in 2004 MDO was headed for victory to be caught at the 9.5 f mark by PP. as was CC in 2017 by Arrogate in the BCC. The shorter race at GP (9f) may make the end result quite different. AT the 9f mark in the 2016 Bcc CC was a winner, will CC be a winner at 9f at Gulfstream.
How much are you willing to wager on this ?

I read TVG is offering 10 to 1 odds on either CC or Arrogate to win
9f makes the PWC a different animal than the DWC, and the question to be asked is at 9f can a horse other than the top 2 be the winner ?..and if TVG is offering 10 to 1 , building up pool sizes, would a place bet on anyhorse other than CC or Arrow, be the best wager on the day, as the inflated pools will offer much value on the place winner if the top 2 finish 1,3..or even worse.

Thoughts ?

TVG offer is only on new accounts. If I was setting up an account I would take the 10-1 on arrogate

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

TVG offer is only on new accounts. If I was setting up an account I would take the 10-1 on arrogate

25.00 max, and in lieu of the usual 250.00 sign up bonus, I presume... Tricky Devils

[Pants II]

Twinspires is running a 15% deposit bonus (up to $100) today. Don't have to be new.

[Holybull1]

Originally Posted by Pants II

Twinspires is running a 15% deposit bonus (up to $100) today. Don't have to be new. They actually care somewhat about their current users instead of clown shoes TVG and their clickbait gimmick bonus offers.

Is that $100 max deposit or $100 max bonus? I tried looking on their site on my phone but the details get cut off.

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Pants II

Twinspires is running a 15% deposit bonus (up to $100) today. Don't have to be new.

hey, thanks for pointing this out! I just collected my bonus.

I would never had known this w/o your post.

[knickslions2]

Not to hijack the Pegasus thread the other cool TVG perk is for all the derby prep races you get your money back (maximum bet $15) if your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd. Good way to bet some long shots. Lots of good deals out there.

[Indian Charlie]

Arrogate toyed with Chrome and could have gone for the lead at any point earlier in the race. Did anyone see the Travers?

[richard burch]

Going with Chrome ...perfect post to stalk and pounce....arrogate must go from the 1 hole.....lots of early speed signed on and horses will go to the front. I know playing closers at G.P isn't vogue but I can see some tired front runners in the last 1/8th and set up beautifully for either Shaman Ghost or Semper Fortis to get the exacta.

BAM!!!

[Benny]

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_vi...param3=1718484

[ScottJ]

This weekend, NYRABets is having a $20 win bet rebate on the Pegasus World Cup if your horse finishes second. To me, this makes Arrogate an automatic play.