Is Haskin joking?

[CSC]

Doesn't last yrs crop of 3yr olds Curlin, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday tower over the 2008 crop at their same stage of development this yr?

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

As analyzed earlier, it didn't work 20-some odd years in a row because only 14 juvenile champs actually made the Derby starting gate. It's really tough taking a stand against a horse who isn't even competing in a given race.

And several of those that did run had dreadful form going into the Derby; if graded winnings at 2 didn't count, they wouldn't have made the cut.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by CSC

Doesn't last yrs crop of 3yr olds Curlin, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday tower over the 2008 crop at their same stage of development this yr?

Absolutely...and the year before that. That's one of the reasons it's hard to make the "Big Brown/ Curlin 3 starts isn't enough" argument. As we know, Curlin turned into a great racehorse, but he still did manage 3rd with a troubled trip behind two that would trounce this field.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Absolutely...and the year before that. That's one of the reasons it's hard to make the "Big Brown/ Curlin 3 starts isn't enough" argument. As we know, Curlin turned into a great racehorse, but he still did manage 3rd with a troubled trip behind two that would trounce this field.

As I said above I have absolutely no idea who will be the best horse of this crop or on the 1st week of May. This year is an immense puzzle to me. I'm just mystified. The only thing concrete thing I can go on is the report by track staff on the workouts. Since I am relatively a small player I can live with that. But also the best horse does not always win the derby, as we know know Curlin is head and shoulders the best horse of the crop in 2007, Street Sense got the trip and was a CD horse for the course. Since very few have run over the strip at CD and alot of these are coming in off poly/cushion preps. This race for me is not a race I am going to invest alot of money on.

But I agree with you, any of the top 3 of last year probably would crush...I hate that word as it is over dramatic but probably crush the 2008 field.

[sumitas]

the Churchill strip has been much maligned. a dirt horse like High Yield never fired. countless others never did either. 2006 you had Sharp Humor who was in great position around the first turn. then he broke his knee cap - end of career. ya never know on that track but it's the same for all...

[slotdirt]

^^^^ I think I need another Wilbury for interpreting purposes.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by sumitas

the Churchill strip has been much maligned. a dirt horse like High Yield never fired. countless others never did either. 2006 you had Sharp Humor who was in great position around the first turn. then he broke his knee cap - end of career. ya never know on that track but it's the same for all...

Eddie D said Hollywood Wildcat didn't handle it in the BC Distaff when she returned as defending champion. Reportedly it is an oval that not all horses can handle.

[slotdirt]

The funny part is someone just corrected him - yesterday, I think - on how Sharp Humor actually raced after the Derby, thus not ending his career.

[Cannon Shell]

Was Curlin heads and shoulders above the rest of his three year old crop? He ran 3rd in the Derby, won the Preakness by a head, got beat by a filly in the Belmont, lost in the Haskell, won a subpar GC Gold Cup by a nose and then won the BC Classic impressively. He may have been the best 3 yo but he was hardly a standout as he ran in 4 grade 1's for 3yo's and won 1 of them.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

He was clearly the overall standout, even going into the Breeders Cup Classic where he went off at 4.4/1 odds - yes - no question.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Was Curlin heads and shoulders above the rest of his three year old crop? He ran 3rd in the Derby, won the Preakness by a head, got beat by a filly in the Belmont, lost in the Haskell, won a subpar GC Gold Cup by a nose and then won the BC Classic impressively. He may have been the best 3 yo but he was hardly a standout as he ran in 4 grade 1's for 3yo's and won 1 of them.

I can see your point, but in my opinion he is head and shoulders the best horse of the crop based on what he did in the BC Classic. He certainly is the most talented horse of the class while Rags, Street S and AGS have all been retired. He's shown his versatilty by being able to handle most tracks and his durabilty by still racing today.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Absolutely...and the year before that. That's one of the reasons it's hard to make the "Big Brown/ Curlin 3 starts isn't enough" argument. As we know, Curlin turned into a great racehorse, but he still did manage 3rd with a troubled trip behind two that would trounce this field.

This I totally agree with. Most years, a horse with Big Brown's lack of experience and conditioning would have very little hope of hitting the board in the derby. But against this year's group? Uou cannot toss a horse with as much talent as Big Brown. He's really the only "wow" type talent that we've seen so far. Pyro and Colonel John have shown glimpses, but Big Brown hasn't shown a chink in his armour in the 3 races he's ran in.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

This I totally agree with. Most years, a horse with Big Brown's lack of experience and conditioning would have very little hope of hitting the board in the derby. But against this year's group? Uou cannot toss a horse with as much talent as Big Brown. He's really the only "wow" type talent that we've seen so far. Pyro and Colonel John have shown glimpses, but Big Brown hasn't shown a chink in his armour in the 3 races he's ran in.

You dont think coming down the stretch like he was running from an alligator as a chink in the armor, and also the fact that he has only three starts after a performance like he had at Toga is a problem?

Think about this, if his first race back wasn't rained off the turf, this horse wouldn't have even been considered for the Florida Derby. Dutrow lucked out here and while his race was impressive last time, what did he beat down in Florida? Gulfstream racing has been putrid this winter, and probably will be so for the next couple years. I am downgrading him based on that fact, plus the fact he ran a top that is absolutely HUGE for a 3 year old with obvious issues.

He can bounce to the moon and still win, but for me, I have alot of negatives on him (Distance, pedigree, sheet, lack of racing, running style), and few positives (power number last out).

I toss a horse like this 10 times out of 10. And at 2/1, with 19 other hilarious options, makes it every more worthwhile.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by CSC

I can see your point, but in my opinion he is head and shoulders the best horse of the crop based on what he did in the BC Classic. He certainly is the most talented horse of the class while Rags, Street S and AGS have all been retired. He's shown his versatilty by being able to handle most tracks and his durabilty by still racing today.

He may have been heads and shoulders above the crop at the end of the year but he still lost a whole lot of races to other 3 year olds to be considered vastly superior. It is easy to say this after he has continued to race effectively at 4 while the other 3 year olds are no longer here. But winning and winning decisively against other 3 year olds would be a benchmark for me to consider him head and shoulders above the other three year olds and in the four biggest 3 year old races he ran in he lost 3 of them and the one win was by a nose.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Was Curlin heads and shoulders above the rest of his three year old crop? He ran 3rd in the Derby, won the Preakness by a head, got beat by a filly in the Belmont, lost in the Haskell, won a subpar GC Gold Cup by a nose and then won the BC Classic impressively. He may have been the best 3 yo but he was hardly a standout as he ran in 4 grade 1's for 3yo's and won 1 of them.

I disagree, by the end of the year he was decisively better than the other 3 yo's. His last three races to me clearly show Curlin as the standout of his class. Street Sense and Hard Spun plateaued, Curlin kept raising his game.
you say the Gold Cup was subpar, but he did beat the best older horse going at the time and the rest of the field was left in the dust and that performance earned him a figure better than anything Hard Spun or Street Sense earned all year. His Classic win said it all really.

[slotdirt]

Originally Posted by Scav

I toss a horse like this 10 times out of 10. And at 2/1, with 19 other hilarious options, makes it every more worthwhile.

Classic line, Scav. Well done.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

I disagree, by the end of the year he was decisively better than the other 3 yo's. His last three races to me clearly show Curlin as the standout of his class. Street Sense and Hard Spun plateaued, Curlin kept raising his game.
you say the Gold Cup was subpar, but he did beat the best older horse going at the time and the rest of the field was left in the dust and that performance earned him a figure better than anything Hard Spun or Street Sense earned all year. His Classic win said it all really.

His haskell loss showed you he was clearly what? The fact remains that he lost 3 of 4 races against 3 yo's in grade 1 races. Did you consider Sunday Silence head and shoulders better than Easy Goer? Probably not and he beat him 3 out of 4. He was a head bob away from being 0 for 4 in the big 3 year old races. The rest of the year counts too. He was clearly the best 3 year old in November and December.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

His haskell loss showed you he was clearly what? The fact remains that he lost 3 of 4 races against 3 yo's in grade 1 races. Did you consider Sunday Silence head and shoulders better than Easy Goer? Probably not and he beat him 3 out of 4. He was a head bob away from being 0 for 4 in the big 3 year old races. The rest of the year counts too. He was clearly the best 3 year old in November and December.

he came back a different horse more mature, whatever, in the JCGC, and consistently performed at that higher level four consecutive times now.
to me there is no doubt who the best horse to come out of 07 was. Curlin is a standout. It was unclear during the TC season, but it didn't end up that way.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

It was unclear during the TC season, but it didn't end up that way.

Without being a smart ass this time - I don't think it was unclear at all.

Hard Spun wasn't that much horse when he didn't make the lead - and when he didn't make the lead and raced wide over a live rail - he wasn't good enough to even hit the board in the Southwest Stakes.

Street Sense - I know I supposedly have a huge bias against him and all - but all of his good races came with the same illogically good trip.

Rags To Riches had a great route pedigree and a slow paced 12 furlong race was what she was tailor made for.

Curlin didn't always win when things didn't go his way - but he didn't need things to go his way to run big.

How many 3yo champions go through a season undefeated?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Without being a smart ass this time - I don't think it was unclear at all.

Hard Spun wasn't that much horse when he didn't make the lead - and when he didn't make the lead and raced wide over a live rail - he wasn't good enough to even hit the board in the Southwest Stakes.

Street Sense - I know I supposedly have a huge bias against him and all - but all of his good races came with the same illogically good trip.

Rags To Riches had a great route pedigree and a slow paced 12 furlong race was what she was tailor made for.

Curlin didn't always win when things didn't go his way - but he didn't need things to go his way to run big.

How many 3yo champions go through a season undefeated?

look, I feel Curlin is head and shoulders the best of the group.
its just for me I only became totally sure of that later in the year. If you were sure about it early on, good for you because you were right.

i agree with your assessment on him 100%, he was the only one that could win a race that wasn't handed to him.

I think you and I were among the very few on here last year that could see through the Street Sense mystique. why he went off as the favorite in the classic is a mystery to me, off of his loss to Hard Spun and his titanic struggle with Grasshopper.