Belmont Stakes Field - Page 6

Bobby Fischer · #**101** 06-01-2009, 03:09 PM

Borel seems to have put another tremendous form-building work into a horse before a big triple crown race.
13.80 12.80 11.8 11.3 GLP12.5

Indian Charlie · #**102** 06-01-2009, 04:25 PM

Wow, only six no hopers in the field? That's pretty strong!

The Indomitable DrugS · #**103** 06-01-2009, 04:30 PM

Six?

That looks like ten no hopers to me.

slotdirt · #**104** 06-01-2009, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Six?

That's looks like ten no hopers to me.

I don't know, don't you think Charitable Man has at least a lick of talent?

Bobby Fischer · #**105** 06-01-2009, 04:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardus

Yes, he should get all the credit for the workout.

I knew there was no reason to click the "view post" link, but i did it anyway

Bobby Fischer · #**106** 06-01-2009, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know, don't you think Charitable Man has at least a lick of talent?

Charitable Man and Dunkirk look like the two best, but Mine That Bird has a chance as well.

Chocolate Candy and Summer Bird could each round out a tri or even the exacta, but they would be more a surprise to win.

Not that bad of a field overall

NTamm1215 · #**107** 06-01-2009, 04:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know, don't you think Charitable Man has at least a lick of talent?

I think Charitable Man has done nothing thus far to lead anyone to believe he's a good horse. That includes earning a 98 Beyer figure in one of the all-time perfect trips.

NT

slotdirt · #**108** 06-01-2009, 04:36 PM

I thought the horse looked like he could run during his juvenile season, and am not ready to dismiss him quite yet.

JerseyJ · #**109** 06-01-2009, 04:48 PM

The only horses in here who have even run a race fast enough to win this race are Dunkirk, Mine That Bird, and Flying Private as none of the others have ever eclipsed 100 on the beyer scale. Because of that, I think those three are the horses to use in the race. Charitable Man is a paper tiger fraud who looks great off of the perfect trip win of the century, where after that perfect trip he still came home in around 13 seconds for the final 1/8th of a mile. I don't think he wants any part of 1 1/2. Chocolate Candy has never run a fast race nor has he ever really ran that good of a race, and no races out in California to total mediocrity Pioneerof the Nile don't count as good races. Finally, I don't really see anything in Summer Bird. He ran ok in his first two starts, but his Arkansas Derby was severly pace aided, and he had a great trip that day compared to Flying Private who tripped out much worse that day in the Arkansas Derby. I just don't see Summer Bird at all.

Hickory Hill Hoff · #**110** 06-01-2009, 04:54 PM

Can we get 3-1 or better on Dunkirk?

Bobby Fischer · #**111** 06-01-2009, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Charitable Man is a paper tiger fraud who looks great off of the perfect trip win of the century, where after that perfect trip he still came home in around 13 seconds for the final 1/8th of a mile.

12.77 home, and He went 94.36 to the mile...

tough crowd

letswastemoney · #**112** 06-01-2009, 06:32 PM

Will Dunkirk be able to get 1.5 miles??

letswastemoney · #**113** 06-01-2009, 06:36 PM

I know breeding doesn't matter once horses have established form but...

none of the horses in the race have went this far, so there is no form for 1 1/2 miles to go on. I trust a son of Birdstone more than one by Unbridled's Song going this distance.

Danzig · #**114** 06-01-2009, 06:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I know breeding doesn't matter once horses have established form but...

none of the horses in the race have went this far, so there is no form for 1 1/2 miles to go on. I trust a son of Birdstone more than one by Unbridled's Song going this distance.

after watching a son of yonaguska hit the board in both classics thus far, you sure you want to go by pedigree?

CSC · #**115** 06-01-2009, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

They are adding blinkers for the Belmont.

This could turn out to be a key equipment change, he has a tendency of falling back in races, this will give the jockey alot more options, supposing the jockey chooses correctly he can be alot closer to pace than he was in his previous races as the pace dictates.

the_fat_man · #**116** 06-01-2009, 07:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

Finally, I don't really see anything in Summer Bird. He ran ok in his first two starts, but his Arkansas Derby was severly pace aided, and he had a great trip that day compared to Flying Private who tripped out much worse that day in the Arkansas Derby. I just don't see Summer Bird at all.

Not saying I don't buy this but I'm too lazy to watch the replay of the AD. Maybe you can help me out by explaining how FP's trip was "much worse' than SB's.

CSC · #**117** 06-01-2009, 07:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

I know breeding doesn't matter once horses have established form but...

none of the horses in the race have went this far, so there is no form for 1 1/2 miles to go on. I trust a son of Birdstone more than one by Unbridled's Song going this distance.

I think this is the key point, it's a race at 1 1/2 and dare I say not too many breeders in America book their broodmares saying 'hey let's go out and breed a horse to win the Belmont'. I can see this race being condemned even before it has been run as a mediocre race. Perhaps I see it differently however to me I am not expecting a 3 yr old this early in his/her career to run 1 1/2 and beyer 105-110 carrying 126lbs. To me a realistic number is 98 - 100. Some horses will be stretching their stamina and my approach is not finding the fastest horse but one that can stay the longest, if you look at it that way that is a talent in itself which is appreciated certainly in Europe.

letswastemoney · #**118** 06-01-2009, 07:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Danzig

after watching a son of yonaguska hit the board in both classics thus far, you sure you want to go by pedigree?

Hmmm...well you have a point. But isn't the Belmont traditionally different?

Sprinters/miler pedigrees can win the Kentucky Derby (Funny Cide, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Big Brown), but they always seem to come up short in the Belmont to horses that were sired by more of a grinding type.

Tiznow was a grinding type of horse...AP Indy regularly won at classic distances and the Belmont...I don't remember what Jazil's sire did, but it seems that any Better Than Honour offspring will like a longer distance....Birdstone was by Grindstone who didn't win flashy, but he looked like the grinder type that could last forever....Sarava was by Wild Again who had won the BCC just like Tiznow.

But when you look at KD winners, like you said they don't necessarily come from long distance type families.

So maybe 10 furlongs is the limit for those sprinter/miler pedigree types, and 12 furlongs might be pushing it?

dalakhani · #**119** 06-01-2009, 09:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Will Dunkirk be able to get 1.5 miles??

His mama is by Ap Indy and she won the ky oaks. His mama's mama is by Alydar.

His pedigree is fine for 12f. If he loses it won't be because of his genes.

letswastemoney · #**120** 06-01-2009, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dalakhani

His mama is by Ap Indy and she won the ky oaks. His mama's mama is by Alydar.

His pedigree is fine for 12f. If he loses it won't be because of his genes.

That's true, I was only thinking of Unbridled's Song I guess.