Travers Buzz: Quality Road a yes..

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by tector

This was a rush job. Pletcher has essentially conceded that. If the horse is out because of it, presumably even you will concede it was not the wisest course. I am just saying it now.

Mr. Pletcher, or his owner, hasn't learned from history.

Back a few years, a very nice colt named Repent looked like a top Derby contender until he came home gasping behind War Emblem's tour de force in the Illinois Derby. He had surgery for a bone chip, was out for several months. He was bred to be a natural 10f horse so his people decided to bring him back in the Travers against a razor-sharp Medaglia d'Oro. Well, Repent gave Md'O everything he wanted, fighting down to the finish to be a close second in the mud. That was it for Repent; he had given his all and he never raced again.

As I recall, the same agenda was followed for Bellamy Road following his defeat in the Derby. He had been emptied out running with a super-fast pace and needed recovery time. Again, they brought him back in the Travers! And again, he ran an honorable second to a horse with race fitness, Flower Alley, and never ran again.

One could argue that having that prep in a sprint race makes this case different from those of Repent and Bellamy Road;that may be, but a horse who is suspect in stamina (which those two weren't), needs more preparation for a such a challenge of his limits.

[tector]

Dalakhani,

I am sorry if this not explicit enough for you, and since I know you think context is nothing it will probably not satisfy you, but to people without such agendas, it is pretty plain that I thought QR was pretty suspect trying this path:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...037#post559037

I love the people elsewhere who think RA is running away from QR. If anything, this is the race to take a shot at him.

Again, if he bounces back solidly, no harm. But that remains to be seen. And I am raising this issue BEFORE anybody announces any thing wrong with him, so you can shut the hell up later if it happens. I am not predicting it, but it is close to 50-50 to me, from the way things tend to go in horse racing nowadays.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by tector

If QR comes out of the race fine, then no harm done. But too many times in recent times we have this scenario play out differently.

The colt has not exactly been the soundest colt on the planet. They get hurt training, shipping and every other way imagineable. The colt raced fine. He is certainly talented and has a fine trainer that could get to his ultimate potential evidentually if he stayed sound..The big issue is the clock, Is there any shot he isn't servicing mares Feb 1 10 instead of at Paysons Park still in training getting ready for the Donn? If so, we will be lucky that Evans kept what could be a real fine colt in training. More likely, it will be 100 mares at 25k a pop.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

Mr. Pletcher, or his owner, hasn't learned from history.

Back a few years, a very nice colt named Repent looked like a top Derby contender until he came home gasping behind War Emblem's tour de force in the Illinois Derby. He had surgery for a bone chip, was out for several months. He was bred to be a natural 10f horse so his people decided to bring him back in the Travers against a razor-sharp Medaglia d'Oro. Well, Repent gave Md'O everything he wanted, fighting down to the finish to be a close second in the mud. That was it for Repent; he had given his all and he never raced again.

As I recall, the same agenda was followed for Bellamy Road following his defeat in the Derby. He had been emptied out running with a super-fast pace and needed recovery time. Again, they brought him back in the Travers! And again, he ran an honorable second to a horse with race fitness, Flower Alley, and never ran again.

One could argue that having that prep in a sprint race makes this case different from those of Repent and Bellamy Road;that may be, but a horse who is suspect in stamina (which those two weren't), needs more preparation for a such a challenge of his limits.

Ann if they aren't going to race at 4 your argument holds no water. You only have so moany races of significants to make a stallion. That is the issue in a nutshell.

[CSC]

By the way Freddy,

If I were RA connections I would be awful leary of facing a rapidly improving colt that has already demonstrated he can win at 1 1/4 to 1 1/2, who has won at Belmont, and now has shown a new dimension of being able to be placed closer to the pace when my own filly may have already run her best races and is unproven at 1 1/4. If anyone is afraid I wouldn't side that it's the Summer Bird camp.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by tector

Dalakhani,

I am sorry if this not explicit enough for you, and since I know you think context is nothing it will probably not satisfy you, but to people without such agendas, it is pretty plain that I thought QR was pretty suspect trying this path:

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...037#post559037



Again, if he bounces back solidly, no harm. But that remains to be seen. And I am raising this issue BEFORE anybody announces any thing wrong with him, so you can shut the hell up later if it happens. I am not predicting it, but it is close to 50-50 to me, from the way things tend to go in horse racing nowadays.

There was no agenda and really nothing personal. I thought the criticism after the race was lame and i called you out. Deal with it and lets move on.

Lets hope he comes out of this race fine and maybe we can see him at least one or two more times.

Cheers

[tector]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Ann if they aren't going to race at 4 your argument holds no water. You only have so moany races of significants to make a stallion. That is the issue in a nutshell.

If he is sound, he still has a an outside shot at the 3YO title, but it would require him to win his next 2 races, with one of them being the BCC, and at least one of them including SB. If they think he can't do that, they will likely put in him the shed. He's got no poly form at all, so that doesn't help. Maybe he should target the Goodwood, too.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

By the way Freddy,

If I were RA connections I would be awful leary of facing a rapidly improving colt that has already demonstrated he can win at 1 1/4 to 1 1/2, who has won at Belmont, and now has shown a new dimension of being able to be placed closer to the pace when my own filly may have already run her best races and is unproven at 1 1/4. If anyone is afraid I wouldn't side that it's the Summer Bird camp.

Rachel is 10 lengths faster a 10f's. He has zero chance at 9 or 10f's.. ZERO.. Tim Ice knows it and risking the horses potential reputation as a stallion by getting crushed is NOT in the flight plan..

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Rachel is 10 lengths faster a 10f's. He has zero chance at 9 or 10f's.. ZERO.. Tim Ice knows it and risking the horses potential reputation as a stallion by getting crushed is NOT in the flight plan..

You know I may sound grumpy and yes I did wake up grumpy this morning, but you gotta love the Rachel love in on this board, I guess you need someone to balance out the opinions here, losing to the greatest filly of all time from what I have read here is not a disgrace(that's assuming she can beat him at Belmont if they meet) and will not detract from his overall legacy as a stallian, he has already stamped that ticket with his win in the Travers yesterday and the Belmont to a lesser degree. Achieving both he most likely will be a Stallian of great demand.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

You know I may sound grumpy and yes I did wake up grumpy this morning, but you gotta love the Rachel love in on this board, I guess you need someone to balance out the opinions here, losing to the greatest filly of all time from what I have read here is not a disgrace and will not detract from his overall legacy as a stallian, he has already stamped that ticket with his win in the Travers yesterday and the Belmont to a lesser degree.

I have no idea if RA is the greatest of all time nor will I suggest it at this time.
The point is RA is faster then Summer Bird by a lot. I have no idea if RA is better then Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, Winning Colors, or whatever filly from 1941 that Pedigree Ann will enlighten us with. To me its impossible to determine which filly would beat which filly. I do know Summer Bird has zero chance against RA and more importantly so does Tim Ice.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I have no idea if RA is the greatest of all time nor will I suggest it at this time.
The point is RA is faster then Summer Bird by a lot. I have no idea if RA is better then Personal Ensign, Go for Wand, Winning Colors, or whatever filly from 1941 that Pedigree Ann will enlighten us with. To me its impossible to determine which filly would beat which filly. I do know Summer Bird has zero chance against RA and more importantly so does Tim Ice.

What are you basing this on? Beyer speed figures, one isolated race at Monmouth? The media hype? Isn't this the type of premature thinking of not taking into account that maybe certain horses improve as they get more exp? We know this can especially happen in the middle of a 3 yr old season. In addition she has to continually run high numbers, is it reasonable to say she can substain these races under untested conditions, you have to atleast admit(once again divorce yourself that she is a filly) that as a horse she has beaten 2 horses dueling themselves into the track in the Mother Goose and sitting off a distance challenged Munnings and a gunned out and out of element Summer Bird all on a renowned speed favoring track, race dynamics gift wrapped and tailored made to her strenghs.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

You know I may sound grumpy and yes I did wake up grumpy this morning, but you gotta love the Rachel love in on this board, I guess you need someone to balance out the opinions here, losing to the greatest filly of all time from what I have read here is not a disgrace(that's assuming she can beat him at Belmont if they meet) and will not detract from his overall legacy as a stallian, he has already stamped that ticket with his win in the Travers yesterday and the Belmont to a lesser degree. Achieving both he most likely will be a Stallian of great demand.

Speaking of zero risk to reputation.. Zenyatta, a mare that will reside with her current ownership making babies forever, is supposed to be given the opportunity to prove her greatness against Rachel. I have the word of respect for Zenyatta and think she is the only horse that needs to be given an opportunity to attempt to beat Rachel.

Rumor has it that Byk has been working the phones night and day to get this match up done!!

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by CSC

What are you basing this on? Beyer speed figures, one isolated race at Monmouth? The media hype? Isn't this the type of premature thinking of not taking into account that maybe certain horses improve as they get more exp? We know this can especially happen in the middle of a 3 yr old season. In addition she has to continually run high numbers, is it reasonable to say she can substain these races under untested conditions, you have to atleast admit(once again divorce yourself that she is a filly) that as a horse she has beaten 2 horses dueling themselves into the track in the Mother Goose and sitting off a distance challenged Munnings and a gunned out and out of element Summer Bird all on a renowned speed favoring track, race dynamics gift wrapped and tailored made to her strenghs.

Experience isnt going to make up the chasm that was between Rachel and Summer Bird in the haskell. There was no real excuse in that race for Summer Bird. She was just better and i didnt see anything that would make me think the tables could be turned...except maybe 10f instead of 9f which she hasnt run yet and even that would be a reach.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

What are you basing this on? Beyer speed figures, one isolated race at Monmouth? The media hype? Isn't this the type of premature thinking of not taking into account that maybe certain horses improve as they get more exp? We know this can especially happen in the middle of a 3 yr old season. In addition she has to continually run high numbers, is it reasonable to say she can substain these races under untested conditions, you have to atleast admit(once again divorce yourself that she is a filly) that as a horse she has beaten 2 horses dueling themselves into the track in the Mother Goose and sitting off a distance challenged Munnings and a gunned out and out of element Summer Bird all on a renowned speed favoring track, race dynamics gift wrapped and tailored made to her strenghs.

Her Preakness win is clearly her most impressive race. 2 week lay off, never raced against colts, comes off a monster G1 effort, Gets pressured every single step of the way, racing for a new trainer. You see Rachel did what Quality Road, a very very nice colt couldn't. Quality Road did what 99% of horses that aren't conditioned for, yielded to the many obstacles that faced him. I think that doesn't mitigate him as a potential terrific colt BUT when a filly overcomes pace, conditioning(remember Ole Hal Wiggins was never interested in ant TC races) and first time colts it suggests that she is well beyond just a super talented sort like QR. Now go forward off that race and look at the progression that she has made and you HAVE to recognize that she is just way better then Summer Bird.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Experience isnt going to make up the chasm that was between Rachel and Summer Bird in the haskell. There was no real excuse in that race for Summer Bird. She was just better and i didnt see anything that would make me think the tables could be turned...except maybe 10f instead of 9f which she hasnt run yet and even that would be a reach.

I surely hope if they do meet, I am in the minority in my opinions. Obviously from a wagering standpoint especially.

[dalakhani]

http://drf.com/news/article/106834.html

Interesting comments from Pletcher:

Quality Road, who was beaten five lengths while finishing third in the Travers after being jostled at the start, also came out of the race fine, according to trainer Todd Pletcher. Quality Road had just one 6 1/2-furlong race between winning the Florida Derby on March 28 and Saturday.

"I thought the horse was well prepared yesterday, I thought he got the mile and a quarter fine, I don t think that had anything to do with him not winning," Pletcher said. "With a different post and with a little better break he could have been a little closer."
Pletcher indicated that the Jockey Club Gold Cup on Oct. 3 or the Goodwood on Oct. 10 were the "two most likely choices" for Quality Road's next start.

[cmorioles]

The Goodwood? Comical...

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by CSC

I surely hope if they do meet, I am in the minority in my opinions. Obviously from a wagering standpoint especially.

Why in the world would Tim Ice give Rachel a try unless she went in the Classic and he had no other option? He knows he can beat the colts that are around, save the better conditioned Quality Road who might be better suited for 9's? What's Ice's risk facing colts vs. facing a filly that has trounced him. You think coming in second works for the Travers/Belmont winner? Summers Bird is colt by a hard to figure hot stallion. He is a really nice looking colt that even in a depressed breeding market is destined for stud duty, why the heck would you risk that windfall? Think about this.. what would you do? Go beat Mine that Bird and Chartiman Man or come in second to Rachel?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The Goodwood? Comical...

Yeah, that makes no sense to me save the "start over the track" ideology. I think Quality Road should point towards the Cigar Mile.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The Goodwood? Comical...

Pletcher is great..Why didn't he say..This man is a main owner for me, The guy wanted to take a shot, The keeneland sale is coming up and I wouldn't mind if this guy bought me 5 or 6 more that have a shot in year, you guys get lost its a business I am running."