8/1 (MTH): Haskell (G1), Oceanport & Matchmaker (G3's)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by CSC

Yeah, but he's still not as good as Rosario according to IDS, even though this is 2010, I suppose this is his breakout year if he can prove this isn't a one year abberation.

This is his breakout year?

Martin Garcia is currently 4-for-56 at Del Mar - winning at 7% with an ROI of $0.72

He was 8-for-123 - winning at 6% with an ROI of $1.03 at Del Mar last year.

Some breakout year.

The only thing that has changed is that the guy is entrenched in Baffert's barn and has picked up some caddy's from Mitchell and Sadler.

[CSC]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

This is his breakout year?

Martin Garcia is currently 4-for-56 at Del Mar - winning at 7% with an ROI of $0.72

He was 8-for-123 - winning at 6% with an ROI of $1.03 at Del Mar last year.

Some breakout year.

The only thing that has changed is that the guy is entrenched in Baffert's barn and has picked up some caddy's from Mitchell and Sadler.

No one is saying he is the second coming of anything, but I think it's not accurate to use such a select sample as a 2 week old Delmar meet, you should know this. Whether you agree or not, His wins in the following races is a break out year for someone that was a no name in SO Cal just a year ago.

Haskell (2010)
Lone Star Derby (2010)
Palos Verdes Handicap (2010)
Strub Stakes (2010)
Southwest Stakes (2010)
Acorn Stakes (2010)
Hollywood Oaks (2010)
Preakness Stakes (2010)

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

This is his breakout year?

Martin Garcia is currently 4-for-56 at Del Mar - winning at 7% with an ROI of $0.72

He was 8-for-123 - winning at 6% with an ROI of $1.03 at Del Mar last year.

Some breakout year.

The only thing that has changed is that the guy is entrenched in Baffert's barn and has picked up some caddy's from Mitchell and Sadler.

So he's off to a cold start at Del Mar. What is more important, the fact that he's off to a slow start at Del Mar or the fact that he's won 105 races this year and is the 5th leading rider in the country in terms of money won?

Baffert can get anyone he wants to ride for him. He uses Garcia because Garcia has become one of the best riders in the country.

[cakes44]

The guy keeps good horses out of trouble...period. If he would have lost either the Preakness or Haskell with his rides in those races, I can't imagine the sh!t he would get with those wide rides.

What is his record and ROI on the turf again, Drugs?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

So he's off to a cold start at Del Mar. What is more important, the fact that he's off to a slow start at Del Mar or the fact that he's won 105 races this year and is the 5th leading rider in the country in terms of money won?

He's ridden 646 mounts this year - winning 16% (in the land of the small fields) and his ROI is $1.60 ... which means his mounts have yielded a 20% loss on every dollar bet - and he's losing more than the win takeout.

Baffert can get anyone he wants to ride for him. He uses Garcia because Garcia has become one of the best riders in the country.

Garcia is winning more races because Baffert is using him.

[the_fat_man]

Let's put things in perspective: Garcia is to Baffert what Velasquez is to Pletcher. It's not about saving ground or putting in good rides on these horses but, rather, about keeping them out of trouble so that the elixir can kick in late stretch. So, Johnny V is pretty much always wide on these horses, as, even though he's basically a EUNUCH when it comes to race riding, he knows that they'll have something xtra when they need it.

Garcia can't finish as well as JV but he doesn't need to as, most of the time, he's on speed types, and, let's face it, outside of Bejarano and Rosario, who does he really need to outfinish these days?

Baffert had a difficult choice: continue riding the Mongoloid Idiot Espinoza or the 'wait a minute while I twirl the reins' Gomez OR go to someone who can at least get the basics correct. Tough choice. I mean, at this point, he'd ride Pedroza over the other 2 bozos.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by cakes44

The guy keeps good horses out of trouble...period. If he would have lost either the Preakness or Haskell with his rides in those races, I can't imagine the sh!t he would get with those wide rides.

What is his record and ROI on the turf again, Drugs?

He sucks on the turf because his inability to save ground gets exposed and because Baffert's barn isn't loaded with turf horses.

Here are Martin Garcia's stats in turf routes:

2010: 11-for-113 (9% wins) $1.12 ROI

2009: 6-for-109 (5% wins) $0.56 ROI

2008: 11-for-114 (9% wins) $1.00 ROI

2007: 8-for-111 (7% wins) $1.76 ROI


But hey, put him on some caddy's and let him get widest, and he's brilliant.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think he could get 10fs ... but I also think he's a lot better at 7fs at this stage of his development. MOTO take I would think.

Thanks! I'll be waiting to hear from McLaughlin........I do think they'll go Travers.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's ridden 646 mounts this year - winning 16% (in the land of the small fields) and his ROI is $1.60 ... which means his mounts have yielded a 20% loss on every dollar bet - and he's losing more than the win takeout.




Garcia is winning more races because Baffert is using him.

How many of his 105 wins this year are for Baffert? Maybe 35?

What is the ROI of any of the top 10 jocks? I bet most of them are right around $1.68. By sheer luck, some will be slighlty higher and some will be slightly lower. I would judge a jock by watching him ride, rather than looking at his ROI.

If Garcia wins on some 25-1 shot next week, he will be winning above the takeout. All it takes is one longshot.

I love Garcia. I think he is extremely talented. He looks great on a horse and he has good instincts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Joel Rosario's ridden almost 5,000 mounts for his entire career and he's showing a flat bet profit with them.

In 2010, he's 37-for-131 with a 28% win percentage and a $2.75 ROI in synthetic routes.

And yes - if you spend a few years watching Rosario ride and spend a few years watching Garcia ride ... one guy is like a Ruth Chris steak and the other guy is like the angus burger from burger king.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Joel Rosario's ridden almost 5,000 mounts for his entire career and he's showing a flat bet profit with them.

In 2010, he's 37-for-131 with a 28% win percentage and a $2.75 ROI in synthetic routes.

And yes - if you spend a few years watching Rosario ride and spend a few years watching Garcia ride ... one guy is like a Ruth Chris steak and the other guy is like the angus burger from burger king.

I don't care how Rosario is doing in synthetic routes this year. You're picking and choosing stats to try to strengthen your argument. Let's compare apples to apples. You said that Garcia's ROI for 2010 is $1.60. What is Rosario's ROI for 2010? What is Dominguez' ROI for 2010? What is John Velaquez' ROI for 2010?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I don't care how Rosario is doing in synthetic routes this year. You're picking and choosing stats to try to strengthen your argument. Let's compare apples to apples. You said that Garcia's ROI for 2010 is $1.60. What is Rosario's ROI for 2010? What is Dominguez' ROI for 2010? What is John Velaquez' ROI for 2010?

Rosario $1.86 - The single worst year of his entire career - not because he's riding any worse but because his name recognition hurts him now - where it helped him when he was considered a nobuddy a few years ago.

Dominguez - $1.61 - he's winning 25% for the year and was once king in the ROI stat for several years about 12 years ago. He hasn't tailed off badly as a rider over the last two years - another case of name recognition hurting him.

Velazquez - $1.64 - He's the Martin Garcia of the East in terms of how he rides now.

The stats are just stats - you have to actually watch how these guys ride to appreciate how unspectacular Garcia is.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

How many of his 105 wins this year are for Baffert? Maybe 35?

He's 44-for-157 with Baffert.

About 42% of his wins this year have been for the Baffert barn. About 58% of his wins have come for a trainer other than Baffert.

[westcoastinvader]

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Was this really an epidemic 5 months ago here?

Not so sure, but don't let that stop you.

I'll offer a 2nd opinion that it was.

I believe there were many posters referring to him regularly as "Looking at Sucky."


Now he's won The Preakness and The Haskell.

As did Rachel Alexandra to cement her Super Star status.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The beyer will be good enough, Im guessing 110-115 range.

Not even close. Without going too deep into the card... I get about a 101-102.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

He's 44-for-157 with Baffert.

About 42% of his wins this year have been for the Baffert barn. About 58% of his wins have come for a trainer other than Baffert.

I admit that is a high number but there are plenty of jocks out there that have a fairly high percentage of their wins from one barn. For a lot of years I bet that at least 30-35% of Johnny V's wins were for Pletcher.

I have a question for you. You say that you don't think Garcia is a very good jockey. He's 44 for 157 (42%) this year for Baffert. Do you think Baffert would have done better if he used someone else on those horses? Off the top of your head, can you come up with even one race where Garcia cost Baffert a win this year? I think Garcia has ridden lights out for Baffert this year. I highly doubt any other jock would have done better with those mounts. It would be hard to improve on 42%.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

I'll offer a 2nd opinion that it was.

I believe there were many posters referring to him regularly as "Looking at Sucky."


Now he's won The Preakness and The Haskell.

As did Rachel Alexandra to cement her Super Star status.

Apparently you missed the KY Oaks last year. Oh and that Woodward thing to.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by philcski

Not even close. Without going too deep into the card... I get about a 101-102.

I'll bet it's higher. I think they'll give him something in the 105-109 range.

[philcski]

Most surprising result of the day at Monmouth- a Pletcher trainee with a TG figure 2 points faster than any other pays $17.60 in an 8 horse field. WHAT?!?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by westcoastinvader

I'll offer a 2nd opinion that it was.

I believe there were many posters referring to him regularly as "Looking at Sucky."


Now he's won The Preakness and The Haskell.

As did Rachel Alexandra to cement her Super Star status.

Well I still think he's mediocre... but the best of the crop, which says a lot about the other 3yo's.

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'll bet it's higher. I think they'll give him something in the 105-109 range.

See Drugs' post. If they don't split the variant (and they shouldn't), he gets the same figure as Omnisicent, whose previous career top was a 94 (last out). I do think he improved off that race- but not more than 4-5 lengths.