Polytrack devils advocates please respond

[Revolution]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And it was her first start on the dirt. I see she is by El Prado out of a Silver Hawk mare. To u all that say that certain horses can't run on certain surfaces (I heard over and over that it was stupid to even try Dylan Thomas on the dirt because he's by Danehill), shouldn't this mean that Asi Siempre shouldn't run on the dirt?

asi went off at 9-2. now all of the sudden $11 horses are a joke? it sounds like people that are losing gambling are using poly as an excuse. i think it is a great surface to handicap. the old keeneland was boring. speed speed speed.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And it was her first start on the dirt. I see she is by El Prado out of a Silver Hawk mare. To u all that say that certain horses can't run on certain surfaces (I heard over and over that it was stupid to even try Dylan Thomas on the dirt because he's by Danehill), shouldn't this mean that Asi Siempre shouldn't run on the dirt?

It's not dirt though, it is polytrack, and poly is definitely playing to both turf and dirt horses.

[Revolution]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

It's not dirt though, it is polytrack, and poly is definitely playing to both turf and dirt horses.

nothing wrong with that. just factor it in when handicapping.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Revolution

asi went off at 9-2. now all of the sudden $11 horses are a joke? it sounds like people that are losing gambling are using poly as an excuse. i think it is a great surface to handicap. the old keeneland was boring. speed speed speed.

I never said this was a joke. She was one of my top two choices to win the race (along with Sharp Lisa) based simply on the fact that she has had success on the grass. I didn't even bother handicapping the race. I just played the horses that had done well previously on grass or on Polytrack. Same thing with the Alcibiades the other day. When we actually will start having to handicap Keeneland is when there are 6-7 grass horses running on the stuff. Right now though, it's pretty easy.

[Revolution]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I never said this was a joke. She was one of my top two choices to win the race (along with Sharp Lisa) based simply on the fact that she has had success on the grass. I didn't even bother handicapping the race. I just played the horses that had done well previously on grass or on Polytrack. Same thing with the Alcibiades the other day. When we actually will start having to handicap Keeneland is when there are 6-7 grass horses running on the stuff. Right now though, it's pretty easy.

not you. another posted claimed the third choice beating the top 2 was a joke. if it was, then all races would be jokes. favorites don't always win. asi is a very nice one.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I never said this was a joke. She was one of my top two choices to win the race (along with Sharp Lisa) based simply on the fact that she has had success on the grass. I didn't even bother handicapping the race. I just played the horses that had done well previously on grass or on Polytrack. Same thing with the Alcibiades the other day. When we actually will start having to handicap Keeneland is when there are 6-7 grass horses running on the stuff. Right now though, it's pretty easy.

That's only cause the top FM Turf horses are putting up better figures this year than the horses in the Distaff horses. If you'd have capped it you'd have seen that even though Asi Siempre isn't as highly ranked in her division as Spun Sugar and Happy Ticket are she had just as good form coming in figure-wise. The same couldn't be said for Sharp Lisa. If the top Distaff horses were Azeri and Sightseek this year they would have had no problem with an Asi Siempre type.

[Pedigree Ann]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

And it was her first start on the dirt. I see she is by El Prado out of a Silver Hawk mare. To u all that say that certain horses can't run on certain surfaces (I heard over and over that it was stupid to even try Dylan Thomas on the dirt because he's by Danehill), shouldn't this mean that Asi Siempre shouldn't run on the dirt?

Danehill has NEVER had a good runner on dirt. El Prado has had Medaglia d'Oro, Borrego, Chindi, etc. Silver Hawk sired Hawkster (Norfolk S at Oak Tree, damsire of Afleet Alex), Dansil (Arkansas Derby), Silver Ending (Arkansas Derby, etc), and Zoonaqua (Oak Leaf S). Asi Siempre's third dam was a half-sister to Drone by dirt sire Bagdad whose daughter was sent to Ireland where she was a SW. Most of that one's foals were bred over there and had no chance to try dirt - it wasn't until she was quite old that she was brought to the US, and her later foals didn't run much; Asi Siempre's dam was unraced. The point being, there is nothing in this pedigree that says this horse can't run on dirt as well as turf.

[Pedigree Ann]

I think the key here is stamina. Horses who get by on their speed, like Summerly and Spun Sugar and, to a certain extent, Happy Ticket, have to work harder to keep going in front, even with those slow fractions. As a result, one will see more races that 'fall apart' late, with the speed stopping midstretch and horses from behind keeping on. Many turf horses are required to run at longer distances than dirt horses are these days (something I deplore, but I digress) so turf horses will tend to have developed more stamina.

Well Gomez was quoted as saying that Happy Ticket would have won the race if she didnt get stopped cold while coming up the rail. To me, the biggest thing about PolyTrack is that the margin between the horses is much smaller. I cant tell you how many times it has been a 3 horse or more photo for a spot.

[sumitas]

the keeneland poly will tighten up so that it will be more like turfway, where speed can hold and off the pace runners can win. in other words, no bias.