2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[wac]

Anyone know odds for a TC winner this year?

[dpkovalesky]

Originally Posted by wac

Anyone know odds for a TC winner this year?

Will there be a Triple Crown Winner in 2015?

Yes
+600

No
-1000

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by wac

Anyone know odds for a TC winner this year?

I don't know but to me fair odds on American Pharoah winning the TC would be 24-32 to 1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

I don't know but to me fair odds on American Pharoah winning the TC would be 24-32 to 1.

He should be 20/1 on making it through all three races, one could say.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He should be 20/1 on making it through all three races, one could say.

That would be more than fair.

[Dunbar]

At Bookmaker.com all you can get on American Pharoah is 10-1. But you can get 150-1 on Upstart.

ODDS TO WIN THE TRIPLE CROWN IN 2015
AMERICAN PHAROAH +1000
DORTMUND +2100
CARPE DIEM +2400
MUBTAAHIJ +5000
MATERIALITY +5000
FIRING LINE +9000
FROSTED +7250
UPSTART +15000
INTERNATIONAL STAR +20000
EL KABEIR +17500
FAR RIGHT +30000
BOLO +55000
DANZIG MOON +35000
WAR STORY +60000
STANFORD +60000
OCHO OCHO OCHO +60000
ITSAKNOCKOUT +60000
TENCENDUR +70000
MR. Z +80000
MADE FROM LUCKY +65000
KEEN ICE +60000
FRAMMENTO +50000

They have +550 for any horse winninng TC; -750 for no TC.

--Dunbar

[Kasept]

Madefromlucky officially demures; Keen Ice moves in, Frammento on deck..

[Kasept]

5/2/15 (CD): Kentucky Derby (10f)

1. International Star (Maker/Mena)
2. Dortmund (Baffert/M. Garcia)
3. Carpe Diem (Pletcher/Velazquez)
4. American Pharoah (Baffert/V. Espinoza)
5. Frosted (McLaighlin/Rosario)
6. Mubtaahij (de Kock/Soumillon)
7. Materiality (Pletcher/Castellano)
8. El Kabeir (Terranova/Borel)
9. Upstart (Violette/J. Ortiz)
10. Far Right (Moquett/Smith)

11. Itsaknockout (Pletcher/Saez)
12. Firing Line (S. Callaghan/Stevens)
13. Danzig Moon (Casse/Leparoux)
14. War Story (Amoss/Talamo)
15. Tencendur (Weaver/Franco)
16. Stanford (Pletcher/Geroux?)
17. Mr. Z (Lukas/Vasquez)
18. Ocho Ocho Ocho (Cassidy/TBA)
19. Bolo (Gaines/Bejarano)
20. Keen Ice (Romans/Desormeaux)
-------------
21. Frammento (Zito)
22. Bold Conquest (Asmussen)
23. Firespike (Maker)
24. Toasting Master (Romans)

[Kasept]

UPCOMING UNDERCARD STAKES PROBABLES

The following is an early rundown of known possible starters in Derby Week stakes races, according to assistant racing secretary and stakes coordinator Dan Bork:

$400,000 ALYSHEBA (GII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Call Me George, Honor Code, Noble Bird, Ride On Curlin. Possible: Den’s Legacy.

$300,000 LA TROIENNE (GI) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – America, Frivolous, Molly Morgan, My Miss Sophia, Pearl Turn, Sheer Drama, Stopchargingmaria, Wedding Toast. Possible: Interest Free, Tiz Windy.

$200,000 EIGHT BELLES (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Ekati’s Phaeton, Fancy and Flashy, Lavender Chrissie, Mizz Money, Promise Me Silver, Streetheart, Super Saks, Taylor S.

$150,000 EDGEWOOD PRESENTED BY FORCHT BANK (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Lady Zuzu, Pangburn, Quality Rocks. Possible: B Rockett, Sweet Opportunity, Whimsicality.

$150,000 TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT (GIII) (Entries taken April 28; race May 1) – Berlino Di Tiger (BRZ), Buster Rose, Channel Marker, Good Deed, Heitai, Positive Side, Power Alert (AUS), Something Extra, Undrafted.

$500,000 WOODFORD RESERVE TURF CLASSIC (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Chocolate Ride, Finnegans Wake, Seek Again, Umgiyo (AUS).

$500,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Bayern, C. Zee, Pants On Fire, Private Zone. Possible: The Big Beast.

$300,000 CHURCHILL DOWNS DISTAFF TURF MILE PRESENTED BY LONGINES (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Coffee Clique, I’m Already Sexy, Lady Lara (IRE), Maid On a Mission, Personal Diary, Sandiva (IRE), Solid Appeal, Strike Charmer, Tepin.

$300,000 HUMANA DISTAFF (GI) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Classic Point, Dame Dorothy, Judy the Beauty, Princess Violet, Sweet Reason, Sweet Whiskey, You Bought Her. Possible: Clearly Confused.

$250,000 AMERICAN TURF PRESENTED BY RAM TRUCKS (GII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – A Lot, Conquest Typhoon, Firespike, Force the Pass, Indianaughty, Metaboss, Tuba, Wireless Future, World Approval. Possible: Royal Son.

$200,000 PAT DAY MILE PRESENTED BY LG&E AND KU (GIII) (Entries taken April 29; race May 2) – Competitive Edge, Conquest Bigluck E, Hillbilly Royalty, Pain and Misery, Toasting Master, Where’s the Moon.

[Dunbar]

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

[tywizard]

Has a rider been named for Lovely Maria?

[Kasept]

As originally indicated by Baffert weeks ago, leaning against running either Maybelline or Luminance in the Oaks after watching them work Monday.. #15 Forever Unbridled and #16 Money'soncharlotte will get in with defections..

Lord Nelson however set for Pat Day Mile after sharp work v. Maybelline..

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
-- Maybellene -- Possible (Baffert)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
-- Luminance -- Possible (Baffert)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
----------------------------------
15. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
16. Callback (Baffert)
17. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

I agree with this. If the race is bet like it's being talked about, Upstart will be far and away the best value. Materiality would be good value too, but I prefer a horse with Upstart's foundation.

[saratogadew]

My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.

[GPK]

Shows how little I follow racing these days. I had no idea Finnegans Wake was still racing.

[saratogadew]

Originally Posted by saratogadew

My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.

Oaks:
Condo Commando
Oceanwave
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
Shook Up

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by GPK

Shows how little I follow racing these days. I had no idea Finnegans Wake was still racing.

He races about once every month since mid last year. Workhorse.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

He races about once every month since mid last year. Workhorse.

What do you know about that word? Aren't you on vacay like 2 weeks a month?

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by GPK

What do you know about that word? Aren't you on vacay like 2 weeks a month?

Whats it raining down there since youre not on a golf course?

Boston was damn nice last week though. Actually did do some work too.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
----------------------------------
15. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
16. Callback (Baffert)
17. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)

Marty McGee confirms from Baffert that his fillies won't enter Oaks.. Forever Unbridled and Money'soncharlotte added to field of 14. Draws tomorrow..