5/5 (CD): 138th Kentucky Derby (G1), 5 Undercard Stakes

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Matz had some pretty pointed remarks about Union Rags' trip this morning when Caton Bredar interviewed him. Perhaps he's beginning to realize that Julien Leparoux is a TERRIBLE fit for that horse.

He's a very overrated jock. That being said, after the start he had yesterday, I'm not sure that there was anything else he could have done. Was he really supposed to make some kind of early premature move when the pace was hot, in a race that looked like on paper like it was going to melt down? Then he was compromised even more on the backstretch when (I think it was) TCI backed up quickly causing him to check sharply. That was the final nail for him.

We always talk about racing luck and trips in this race and the horses that got the best trips yesterday ran 1-2. MG gave I'll Have Another an almost flawless ride yesterday from the 19 hole. Obviously it helped that he broke sharply, unfortunately for Union Rags, he did not.

[The Bart]

Originally Posted by South Beach Luv

HRTV's Jon White had the winner pegged, if he is on the air today over/under on how many times he mentions it?

The only reason Jon White isn't the best handicapper on this site is because he doesn't post on this site!

[GPK]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

He's a very overrated jock. That being said, after the start he had yesterday, I'm not sure that there was anything else he could have done. Was he really supposed to make some kind of early premature move when the pace was hot, in a race that looked like on paper like it was going to melt down? Then he was compromised even more on the backstretch when (I think it was) TCI backed up quickly causing him to check sharply. That was the final nail for him.

We always talk about racing luck and trips in this race and the horses that got the best trips yesterday ran 1-2. MG gave I'll Have Another an almost flawless ride yesterday from the 19 hole. Obviously it helped that he broke sharply, unfortunately for Union Rags, he did not.

I haven't read much, but this is the first I have seen this mentioned. He performed tremendously on such a big stage for the first time. Obviously having a talented horse and having the race run as it appeared on paper was of great help. But I thought he gave a fantastic ride as well. Pretty good for a jock that was riding at Hastings last year.

[pointman]

Originally Posted by GPK

I haven't read much, but this is the first I have seen this mentioned. He performed tremendously on such a big stage for the first time. Obviously having a talented horse and having the race run as it appeared on paper was of great help. But I thought he gave a fantastic ride as well. Pretty good for a jock that was riding at Hastings last year.

I agree, Gutierrez gave that horse a great ride. Good for him, he should do very well in So Cal, it is not like that jock room is filled with superstars out there.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by pointman

I agree, Gutierrez gave that horse a great ride. Good for him, he should do very well in So Cal, it is not like that jock room is filled with superstars out there.

Send Rosario to Hastings. I never bet there.

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by GPK

Send Rosario to Hastings. I never bet there.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by GPK

Send Rosario to Hastings. I haven't bet there yet.

FTFY bro.

[Sightseek]

Graphic of the race...

http://www.courier-journal.com/inter...cky-Derby-2012

[outofthebox]

Originally Posted by outofthebox

I just pray there is not another Aikenite on the card to spoil all my pick 3 and 4 tickets this year.....

Well this year it was LIttle Mike. I overestimated that the pace would be highly contested. I should have known that Ramon would put a hammer lock on Get Stormy. Being wrong about that cost me big in the pick 4's.

[slotdirt]

Beyer on Bodemeister:

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-bodeme...-derby-history

[Danzig]

wait, so bode ran a good race, and is brilliant, but a slow horse managed to defeat him? interesting logic.

can't argue that bode ran a good race, but i don't know about the final analysis in this article.
and it's a shame that smith is getting more attention for his ride than the winning jock, who did everything just right.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Danzig

wait, so bode ran a good race, and is brilliant, but a slow horse managed to defeat him? interesting logic.

can't argue that bode ran a good race, but i don't know about the final analysis in this article.
and it's a shame that smith is getting more attention for his ride than the winning jock, who did everything just right.

The logic is pretty straightforward. It being that Bode ran a much more demanding race that most horses would have folded from and run in the back of the pack. It is this that setup for the slower horse to win.

It's a shame anytime a jockey gets attention.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

The logic is pretty straightforward. It being that Bode ran a much more demanding race that most horses would have folded from and run in the back of the pack. It is this that setup for the slower horse to win.

It's a shame anytime a jockey gets attention.

no, i understand how i'll have another won...but i don't understand how a horse can be brilliant in defeat while the winner is subpar. several other closers didn't manage to do that, but i'll have another prevailed. i agree that some of the crop is less than stellar, but i don't think that judgement should be passed onto the winner. several others were there on the line, but he was the only one to have some distance on the field.

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Danzig

but i don't understand how a horse can be brilliant in defeat while the winner is subpar.

There's a Youtube video out there with Rapid Redux almost losing to a bad $2,500 claimer at Thistle, Cigar actually losing to Dare And Go, Rachel Alexandra losing to Persistantly, and Gallant Fox losing to Jim Dandy.

I believe it's called Breakaway Pace Battles.

Narrator is hot.

[pmayjr]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Beyer on Bodemeister:

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-bodeme...-derby-history

Here's the flaw in Beyer's argument about the slow Derby time and not many other horses being able to close on Bodemeister and the hot pace he set-
NOBODY WAS CLOSING THAT DAY.

I got slaughtered on the undercard, because I was picking stalkers and closers all day. I was an idiot for not adjusting to the speed bias. Speed horses were holding leads most of the day, and the only horses that were able to close were making aggressive early moves on the backstretch, not in the stretch.

And a lot of those horses that were on the pace and holding were setting fast early fractions. Not sure if Churchill is normally like that, but that's seriously how things went that day. Even horses that were right off the lead weren't able to close for the most part.

So I think the jury is still out on this 3 year old crop. Bode ran a monster race. He looks to be the best 3-year old, and I think if they let him race throughout the year he could still improve by leaps and bounds (which is scary).

But I'm not taking anything away from I'll Have Another. If he gets a competitive 2nd or 3rd to Bode in the Preakness, he's a legit horse. We all saw how bad the 3-year old crop was last year, and how weak that older group was that Tizway beat up on and what made it to the BC Classic last year. I'm hoping a lot of these top 3 year olds continue to run throughout the year and replenish the Classic division later in the year.

In a nutshell, I'm not saying Beyer is wrong, but there are things that happened at Churchill all Derby Day that can make you argue against what he's saying. Let's see what happens in the next 2 TC races, and let's hope Zayat decides to not retire Bode after the Preakness lol. I'm reserving judgement until after the Belmont.

[Indian Charlie]

The other horses near the lead stopped dude.

[pmayjr]

We all expected Trinniberg to stop. Whether Hansen was stalking or just not fast enough, who knows? The NBC people also remarked how uncomfortable Hansen looked leading up to the gate. We all know what happened to TCI. Bodemeister was just better anyway. I think things should play out before making any conclusions on this crop