Gotta love Watchmaker....

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

Excuse me?

Horses two years old are still growing. They should not be raced imo. When they race, they compete. When they compete they run too hard. They are herd animals. They are bred to stay with or better, ahead of the group. Not like training where you can back them off and control things.

However, I will say I am really enjoying the reading on these preps and some of the stats thrown in. Thanks for sharing and looking all that up. This is really a good board.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

The part in bold is just not true. Too many good horses have come out of the Juvenile and run well. Just not any that have won the Juvenile and the Derby. But since 1985, there have been 66 TC races and 19 have been won by horses that ran in the Juvenile. That's 29% and that's not bad. Tell me any other Juvenile race that's a better indicator of future 3yo success. U say that the BC has ruined a ton of good horses and Tagg just doesn't want to take the gamble. How did not taking that gamble work out for Eurosilver or Ruler's Court?

Look, it is true. It is extremely hard on them. In general, it is very hard on two year olds to put them in a race such as the BCJ because of the level of competition. No race is a better indicator of future 3 yo success because, for the most part, the best and fastest two year olds in the country race in the BCJ. Just because it is the best two year old race in the country, doesn't mean that a lot of the horses don't have serious issues after running in that race. Some aren't mature enough to handle it. Sure, some go on without too many problems, but a lot don't, and that was the point that I was trying to make. That IS the reason that Tagg won't run his two year olds in the race. In fact, I was really surprised when he threw Nobiz Like Shobiz in the Champagne, but then again, the Champagne isn't near the race that the BCJ is. The BCJ's level of competition is unreal.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

No, Tagg was considering the Derby with the horse even before his Bertram Bongard performance. In the Bertram Bongard, FC won by nine lengths while under a strangle hold, posted a 103 BSF (the highest in the country at the time for two year olds), and broke the stakes record. That is when he began wondering whether or not to enter the horse in the Sleepy Hollow or the BCJ, and decided on the first for the reasons that I stated in my other post. A lot of people were pushing Tagg to enter FC in the BCJ just after the Bertram Bongard too.

Good point. Had those two performances backwards in my mind. Bertram Bongard was the 9 length domination and the Sleepy Hollow was the struggle with Spite the Devil...
on a side note, amazing both these warriors will be facing off again on Saturday!

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

Good point. Had those two performances backwards in my mind. Bertram Bongard was the 9 length domination and the Sleepy Hollow was the struggle with Spite the Devil...
on a side note, amazing both these warriors will be facing off again on Saturday!

That's cool. I didn't know that they were running against one another again...

[philcski]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

That's cool. I didn't know that they were running against one another again...

see bottom for NYB showcase day probables:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Originally Posted by philcski

see bottom for NYB showcase day probables:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html

Wow, that looks like some good racing. The Empire Classic looks really nice Naughty New Yorker, Funny Cide, West Virginia, Spite the Devil...

I'm also looking forward to Sharp Humor's return, and I want to see how Bad Boy Rising does in the Sleepy Hollow. I hope all probables run!

Thanks for putting that up

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

see bottom for NYB showcase day probables:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/79679.html

Ya gotta love the Muskrat Rumble.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Ya gotta love the Muskrat Rumble.

Oh, I love it!!

It's the "boat" racing's big day... YACHT RACING!!!

Actually I'm most interested in the return of Sharp Humor. Interesting (but good) spot.

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by oracle80

I was alerted by two posters that you plaigerized my post on the stats of the juvy on another board. I'm not happy with you.

I know what post you are talking about and I'm pretty sure if he was going to plagiarize it on another board that he wouldn't have posted the exact same thing in this thread. I think they were just coincidentally similar.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

I know what post you are talking about and I'm pretty sure if he was going to plagiarize it on another board that he wouldn't have posted the exact same thing in this thread. I think they were just coincidentally similar.

Can u clue me in?

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Can u clue me in?

Someone brought up the BC Juvenile curse on a thread on here a week or so back and Oracle replied with a post that included the list of all the horses that ran in the Juvy and went on to win Triple Crown races.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Someone brought up the BC Juvenile curse on a thread on here a week or so back and Oracle replied with a post that included the list of all the horses that ran in the Juvy and went on to win Triple Crown races.

Ok, I get it. Thanks. Oracle, I can guarantee u that I didn't see your post.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Linny

While I was impressed with NoBiz' move into contention I really disliked the way he leaned into Pegasus Wind when they turned for home.

This is not at all what I saw. I saw Pegasus Wind drift slightly into Nobiz and that's when Nobiz started acting green and looking at the grandstand.

[jpops757]

Originally Posted by Cunningham Racing

No doubt he is talented, but Mike cannot say that he was the best horse...that would be asonine....I haven't seen a two-year-old train in the mornings like Scat Daddy does since Afleet Alex....he's no fluke and very much deserves more credit than people give him....

NLS didn't lose that race...Scat Daddy won it

Can it be as simple is dont give up on this horse, Somemore experience and a better trip and a win is there. Why do you think a defense of one horse is a knock on the other. Just my opinion is a bomb will take the Juvi. Dont ask me which one because I have no idea. Someone will come in and throw an alltime best and beat the Pletcher bunch . Maybe even Pletchers 3rd stringer. These are 2yr olds and much improvement can occure early.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I disagree with this completely. Since the BC series was started in 1984, runners out of the BCJ have had MUCH more success in the TC races than those from the Remsen. Consider this information:

Runners that ran 1-2-3 in the races and then won a Classic

Juvenile
Tank's Prospect
Spend a Buck
Alysheba (2)
Easy Goer
Tabasco Cat (2)
Timber Country
Editor's Note
Point Given (2)
Afleet Alex (2)

Remsen
Pine Bluff (also ran in the BC)
Go for Gin
Thunder Gulch (2)
Empire Maker

That's 9-4 in number of horses and 13-5 in number of Classic races won. This doesn't even include horses that ran in the BC that didn't hit the board but still won a Classic the following year. U could add Danzig Connection, Bet Twice, Go and Go, Pine Bluff, Sea Hero, Lemon Drop Kid. It also doesn't include a horse like Cat Thief, who went on the win the BC Classic the next year. It also doesn't include horses like Blumin Affair and Tejano Run who also finished on the board in the Derby. And if u look and see how many horses from both races went on to win grade ones the next year, the clear advantage is even more lopsided in favor of the BC Juvenile.

The point here is that for all this talk about a silly jinx (and it's hard to dispute the fact that no horse has won both yet), the BC Juvenile is a much better place to look for a 2yo that will go on to have success as a 3yo. Running in the BC does NOT mess up a 2yo for his 3yo season. If u've got a talented horse, run him. Skipping the BC because u think that's a better way to get to the Derby, a race six months down the line, is stupid. So much can and often does happen between now and then.

i remember when zito passed on the bcj a few years ago when he seemed loaded to the gills with talent. he had eurosilver among others...and said he was skipping to 'save' his horses for the derby. i said he was making a HUGE mistake, that if any of his juvies would be a viable contender, that he should run them in the bc. of course i was given ample harrassment, people telling me that 'zito knows what he's doing', he's the hall of famer, who was i to question..yadda yadda....at any rate, we all know how that turned out for nick.

if you have a good two year old, who you feel belongs in the bcj, and he's good to go--run him. there's no telling what will happen in the months to come. if you have a precocious youngster, race him.
now, i'm not saying this particular horse needs to run, it's entirely up to his connections...the spacing may not be right.
but everyone knows, or should know, that a horse who's good now may not be in the future...

a bird in the hand and all that.

as for any jinx, i think that's ridiculous.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Tell that to Tagg. It worked for FC, and Nick had bad luck with his horse...

There's no telling what can happen in the months to come, but there's also no telling what might happen in the BCJ. I probably would have done the same thing if I had some fragile two year olds who had a ton of potential. Who's to say that Eurosilver would have won or even done well in the BCJ anyway? That's why I think that cases of horses like Eurosilver aren't legitimate. Heck, FC might have won the BCJ and the Derby...who knows, but I would have rather won the Derby than the BCJ, and the decision paid off for Tagg. But it's not just the Derby. It's saving the horses from preventable injuries so they may race to their peak the following year. I'll leave the training job to the trainers because, most of the time, they make good decisions based upon each individual animal and each individual circumstance. Nick may not have made the wrong decision with his horses. It's an unknown factor because you don't know how his horses would have done in the BCJ, and whether or not they would have gotten injured in the BCJ that kept them from racing the following year anyway.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by kentuckyrosesinmay

Tell that to Tagg. It worked for FC, and Nick had bad luck with his horse...

There's no telling what can happen in the months to come, but there's also no telling what might happen in the BCJ. I probably would have done the same thing if I had some fragile two year olds who had a ton of potential. Who's to say that Eurosilver would have won or even done well in the BCJ anyway? That's why I think that cases of horses like Eurosilver aren't legitimate. Heck, FC might have won the BCJ and the Derby...who knows, but I would have rather won the Derby than the BCJ, and the decision paid off for Tagg. But it's not just the Derby. It's saving the horses from preventable injuries so they may race to their peak the following year. I'll leave the training job to the trainers because, most of the time, they make good decisions based upon each individual animal and each individual circumstance. Nick may not have made the wrong decision with his horses. It's an unknown factor because you don't know how his horses would have done in the BCJ, and whether or not they would have gotten injured in the BCJ that kept them from racing the following year anyway.

Or how about we tell it to John Servis who skipped the BC with Rockport Harbor and ran in the Remsen. How did that whole thing work out? I asked u about Ruler's Court earlier. The truth is that there is no guarantee by going in any race and skipping one now because u are scared of getting hurt is silly. U can get hurt in any race at any time. And the past record has shown us that quite a few really good 2yo's have run in the BC and come back to be really good 3yo's. I can give u more examples of horses that ran in the BC and did well as 3yo's than u can give me of horses that were purposely held out of the BC due to concern about injuries or whatever and went on to 3yo success.

Question. If u had your choice, would u just abolish the BC Juvenile? I mean, u seem to be saying that it's the right choice for any trainer with a 2yo that has any hopes of staying healthy and prospering as a 3yo to skip the race.

[kentuckyrosesinmay]

Yes, your horse can get hurt in any race at any time. But, the BCJ is harder on the two year olds than any other two year old race in the country. It is a simple fact that I don't see why anyone would argue because the figures are there.

No, I wouldn't abolish the BCJ (I actually like the race), but if I had a really, really promising two year old who looked like there was a ton of room for improvement and could get the classic distances, I would be damned if I would run my horse in that race because I know what it does to a lot of them.

And I can give you a ton of examples of horses that were injured in the race, retired, had problems throughout the rest of their careers because of that race, or were just never good again because of both mental and physical reasons specifically from running in that race. It is the two year old equivalent to the Derby, although the Derby carries much, much more weight. Both races ruin a ton of horses.

I believe that Tagg is the best trainer in the country with the quality of stock that he gets into his stable, and I believe that he makes very good decisions with his horses. I'll trust his judgment again.

[ArlJim78]

Could it be as simple as the trainer doesn't think his horse is ready for the BCJ so is passing it up? Isn't that part of what a good trainer is supposed to do, not run his horse unless the horse is ready?

I don't think this decision involves any consideration of jinxes or the Kentucky Derby. Just sound horsemanship imo.