Arkansas Derby Field

[cakes44]

PVal rode Keyed Entry into the ground last year. Johnny V was hurt and didn't ride in the Derby last year.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Andy, I think U kinda like AGS. How much stock do U put into JV obting elsewhere? How much do U think it will help his odds? BTW, didn't he opt for keyed entry last year instead of BGC?

I honestly don't put much stock in who chooses what horse. One problem is you can't really know exactly why one rider opts for one horse over another. In a certain way you are supposed to ride the one with shorter odds...which in this case is Circular Quay. Maybe Circular Quay is a more likely winner of this Derby. Personally I am not a big fan, but I recognize that he may be better than I originally thought, though I find Pletcher's real reason for not running him in a prep unfortunate.

To me, Any Given Saturday has a good running style for the Derby, in that he places himself in races and shouldn't be a victim of pace one way or another, plus he has run enough good races that I tend to discount his Wood as the best indication of his ability. I just think he is likely to be the best price of the few legitimate contenders in this race.

[Bigsmc]

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

Andy, I think U kinda like AGS. How much stock do U put into JV obting elsewhere? How much do U think it will help his odds? BTW, didn't he opt for keyed entry last year instead of BGC?

Ramon Dominguez was on BGC in the Derby.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm just trying to figure out, Phil, what that great giver of knowledge meant by its initial comments in this thread. Certainly someone so giving wouldn't want to make a snide comment.....I'm sure there was some brilliance behind that post and I am just too stupid to figure it out.

Im really tickled pink that you wonder what I meant. All I was saying was that the first time started had no Beyer figs upon which to compare. I thought the previous poster had made refernce to Olympic Chief so my comment would be obvious, but then I think there was another post made in between so maybe the idea was lost.

Thanks for showing the love.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

To me, Any Given Saturday has a good running style for the Derby, in that he places himself in races and shouldn't be a victim of pace one way or another, plus he has run enough good races that I tend to discount his Wood as the best indication of his ability. I just think he is likely to be the best price of the few legitimate contenders in this race.

I agree w/ much of what you are saying but I dont agree there are few legitimate contenders. I dont think I can recall a derby w/ so many. I count maybe 8 or 9.

I would think that you would agree as your pet theory this year is that the field is so bad. Bad field = more contenders? Would think it would work like that in most scenarios. Great field = less contenders?

SO what ARE you saying? There are few legit contenders and these are so bad? Then why do the PPs seem to be so in line?

Originally Posted by SentToStud

.

You're far better off spending your time watching the races and forming your own ideas about who ran well/poor in spite of/because of/irregardless of how the races were run and how YOU think they'll move forward.
... I will spend whatever time I invest looking to do two things; 1. Form negative opinions on two or more of the "name" horses to the extent that I can leave them off a tri or super ticket. ... 2. I'll spend most of my time following the 'bottom' 2/3 of the field and hopefully come up with two or three that I believe have a better than conventionally thought chance of crashing the ticket at 25-1 to 50-1 (or whatever).
....

this is excellent post but I will offer two slight modifications. It is okay to form your own conclusions, however it is also valuable to share information. Last year I did not realize Bluegrass Cat had been wrapped up in his last race, I would not be able to know that sitting in a vacuum, didnt cash but that's an example of good info. sharing.

Also, form negative opinions on one or two favorites, but do so for an objective reason. Not just "he's good candidate for bounce," or "I think he likes the track." Usually this stuff is not based on logic but hunches. The other thing is if you find one piece of information that is real/objective and different than the public try to cash it, but dont get cute by then finding a second and a third.

Just try to find one single factor, objectively that gives you an edge.

Real good post.