How good is Big Brown? - Page 7

sumitas · #**121** 03-29-2008, 10:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Round Pen

NO NO Scav It would not matter if Affirmed beat Alydar again someone on this forum would say "Affirmed beat a bad field" I have never seen a forum where it does not matter who wins the race someone always says he beat a bad field I just think its very comical

It jars the funny bone. To me he looked like Lost In the Fog going long. He surely scampered out of that gate incredibly fast and ran the field into submission just like LITF used to, but this time longer.

johnny pinwheel · #**122** 03-30-2008, 12:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Nothing like Derby prep time, where every horse who wins a race turns into the next Triple Crown winner...

lol...its great though because that horse will be over bet now. how many horses win the derby in that fashion ? not many ! electrify actually ran a faster race , the fractions were almost the same and he came home faster and he was beating the likes of saint daimon and better than bonds. that track changed or something was up. those horses just are not that good. so go ahead bet him hard, call him the best until the first saturday in may. on sunday morning you'll be tearing them up with your hangover . ever since gulfstream changed the schedule, that race attracts very few good horses. i liked smooth air at least he won the grade 2 . he was the only one with a graded win at 18-1 , besides majestic warrior, who won the hopeful 7 months ago,the rest were your basic allowance rats.so go ahead call that a derby !lol

sumitas · #**123** 03-30-2008, 04:09 AM

I'm seeing 3 yr old sprinters disguised as routers. I am not impressed with these 3 yr old horses at this point whatsoever insofar as running a distance of ground.

jcs11204 · #**124** 03-30-2008, 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

He might be a monster, this I don't disagree with BUT he ran absolutely MONSTEROUS, and he could have 90 days off and he won't repeat the effort. My guess is that sheet number is in the -2 to -3 range, which would be a 4pt top. He will be the 5/2 favorite of the KY Derby, and I will be tossing him out of the first three spots.

lower then 5-2 unless war pass comes back and freaks

miraja2 · #**125** 03-30-2008, 08:44 AM

With regards to Tomcito, I was slightly impressed with his race today.
On the one hand, he simply ran by some moderately talented colts who had made a much more concerted effort than he did to stay close to a hot pace. And, as others mentioned, he was still nowhere near the winner at the end.

But, given that this was the colt's first start off of a long layoff, and at a distance that is probably not his best, the fact that he wasn't close to a nice colt like Big Brown isn't particularly shocking. Tomcito actually broke pretty sharply but then seemed very awkward going into the first turn (he might have been bumped slightly....I can't tell) and settled back to last. From there, I thought his race wasn't bad at all. He might turn out to be nothing, but when stretched out to 10f in the future, he seems like the type that might win some halfway decent stakes races if the pace is hot enough in front of him.

fpsoxfan · #**126** 03-30-2008, 09:21 AM

FP he's not peddling shiat, he's on accurate here.

Jim, I understand now. I've already clarified this.

johnny pinwheel · #**127** 03-30-2008, 09:48 AM

he's not peddling anything that track changed or the timer is wrong. the last 3 races on dirt were run at 1 and 1/8. the last two produced simular times. either the bonnie miss was bad horses and they ran 20 lenghts slower or the track got the "scrape". they always want these big races to look fast. unless its a poly track. i also feel that BB didn't beat much in that group either.

Dunbar · #**128** 03-30-2008, 11:22 AM

I don't doubt cmorioles' speed figs either. But it should be relatively easy to confirm that something significant was done to the track just before the Fl Derby, shouldn't it? It's not like they can lull an entire attendance to sleep while they back down an entire track.

--Dunbar

slotdirt · #**129** 03-30-2008, 11:50 AM

The point about Electrify in the last race at GP last night is a great one, and thanks to those who pointed out those numbers. Nobody seemed to be closing in the last two stakes races yesterday, just for whatever that is worth. Big Brown was all over the track the last 1/16th as well. Just a few day-after thoughts.

bogeydaman · #**130** 03-30-2008, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I don't doubt cmorioles' speed figs either. But it should be relatively easy to confirm that something significant was done to the track just before the Fl Derby, shouldn't it? It's not like they can lull an entire attendance to sleep while they back down an entire track.

--Dunbar

I was trackside and did not see anything done to the track.

Quote:

johnny pinwheel
he's not peddling anything that track changed or the timer is wrong. the last 3 races on dirt were run at 1 and 1/8. the last two produced simular times. either the bonnie miss was bad horses and they ran 20 lenghts slower or the track got the "scrape". they always want these big races to look fast. unless its a poly track. i also feel that BB didn't beat much in that group either.

The filly that won the Bonnie Miss was beat 20 lengths by Big Brown. If just taken the final times into consideration she would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack of the Derby with Majestic Warrior, Nistle's Crunch, Face the Cat, etc who were also beat by BB by 20 or so lengths.

I say this to describe how impressive I believe his performace was (and to a lesser extent Smooth Air's race as well). Quite frankly I thought BB was an absolute 100% bet against based on the prior competition he faced, the impossible post, and the odds associated with the probability that he would win (or even hit the board). I was proved wrong.

I don't agree with the minimization of the effort based on the "group" he faced. Outside of horses named Pyro, War Pass, and Dennis of Cork the competition would always be questioned. Quite frankly he has accomplished more at this time of his career (March 29th of 3 year old season) than the past 2 champion 3 year olds (Bernardini won a NW1 at GP and Curlin had won a G3 in Arkansas in his 2nd carreer start over the likes of Officer Rocket and Teuflesburg).

Danzig · #**131** 03-30-2008, 12:06 PM

it's not just the time of the bonnie miss that brought up questions regarding the surface, but electrifys time as well.

Danzig · #**132** 03-30-2008, 12:06 PM

hockey2315 · #**133** 03-30-2008, 02:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

The filly that won the Bonnie Miss was beat 20 lengths by Big Brown. If just taken the final times into consideration she would have been somewhere in the middle of the pack of the Derby with Majestic Warrior, Nistle's Crunch, Face the Cat, etc who were also beat by BB by 20 or so lengths.

I don't think this is the right way to think about it. . .

cmorioles · #**134** 03-30-2008, 02:31 PM

The official Beyer is 106, which is exactly what I figured with a 120 raw and a 14 variant for the last two dirt races.

Isn't something done to the track between pretty much every race? I doubt we can tell with the naked eye, or even binoculars, what it is that changes the speed of the surface.

Travis Stone · #**135** 03-30-2008, 02:38 PM

The track getting scraped for the big race is not a new phenomenon. It's frustrating, because final times on their own don't carry as much weight anymore with the advent of speed figures. They could have run it in in 1:51 yesterday, but the figures would have still come out with a fast effort.

cmorioles · #**136** 03-30-2008, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The track getting scraped for the big race is not a new phenomenon. It's frustrating, because final times on their own don't carry as much weight anymore with the advent of speed figures. They could have run it in in 1:51 yesterday, but the figures would have still come out with a fast effort.

That is the funny thing. Only the most novice of handicappers would care about final time. If the debacle that has been Santa Anita proved anything, it is that raw time is meaningless. For some reason, the tracks still seem to think people care about the final time though.

Danzig · #**137** 03-30-2008, 03:00 PM

i'm just surprised that no one has posted the ubiquitous 'i wonder how much faster he'd have gone if kent had gotten after him' post.

Danzig · #**138** 03-30-2008, 03:03 PM

i do have a question tho.

i just read the write up on t'bred times and they say that his stamina was never depleted. but what about his stretch run? was he weaving like an irishman on st paddys day because he was green? or was he rubber legged because he ran out of gas?

hockey2315 · #**139** 03-30-2008, 03:03 PM

I just watched the race again and he didn't look too good in the stretch. That doesn't bode well for the derby at all.

ELA · #**140** 03-30-2008, 03:11 PM

I don't think his drifting/swaying in the stretch had to do with getting tired, not nearly as much as it had to do with other factors (which I won't get into here). I am not saying he'll stay either. At this point, I am indifferent. As far as the Derby, for me, the verdict is still out but it's not looking positive.

Eric