9/12: BEL C/O ($608k Friday!!) - Page 7

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**121** 09-10-2008, 09:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

yep your right this is one tough card to me..id have no problem singling in the 4th 7 coranation day..adds the blinks ..the main rival saratoga steve has proven he cant do it..yet.the 2 horse is troubling..but..hes o-27..the brown horse pp3 is the only other one i think has a shot..

bigs gpk all well, what do you see for a single?

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**122** 09-10-2008, 09:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

All i know is the 7th is impossible..

joey see who classick impact ran 2nd to 1 back...

blackthroatedwind · #**123** 09-10-2008, 09:39 PM

Isn't there a horse in the 7th that has run at least decently against significantly better company?

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**124** 09-10-2008, 09:48 PM

the 7 has that as far as i can tell /the 3 used to

blackthroatedwind · #**125** 09-10-2008, 09:50 PM

So what's wrong with Millenium Jet then?

blackthroatedwind · #**126** 09-10-2008, 09:58 PM

And, let me add, I think watching the replay of his last race is a good idea.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #**127** 09-10-2008, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So what's wrong with Millenium Jet then?

nothing really..if the 2 decides to like the turf..he can go and make such a lead that he wont get caught..the 3 has great trainer moves the 6 can press and get lucky.the 10 also ..tough race..

the_fat_man · #**128** 09-10-2008, 10:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And, let me add, I think watching the replay of his last race is a good idea.

Complicating matters is that his chart running line (the penultimate call) is probably wrong. But I wonder why you like a horse that just couldn't finish well in a race where no less than 6 horses were gaining significantly in the last call of a race that just barely missed completely falling apart?

And, Luzzi is at the top of my list of jocks I won't bet unless they're guaranteed an "idiot proof" trip.

blackthroatedwind · #**129** 09-10-2008, 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Complicating matters is that his chart running line (the penultimate call) is probably wrong. But I wonder why you like a horse that just couldn't finish well in a race where no less than 6 horses were gaining significantly in the last call of a race that just barely missed completely falling apart?

And, Luzzi is at the top of my list of jocks I won't bet unless they're guaranteed an "idiot proof" trip.

I completely agree that the race four back complicates matters for me. I can't argue with you if you suggest that day was the ultimate test for him in that it was a race he was handed ( his loss that day cost me the Pick-6 ) and couldn't win. However, isn't it fair to say that he has improved a bit since then? I can see that he has had reasonably soft trips in his two and three back races but weren't those significantly better fields than this one?

His 1 for 14 record is theoretically a problem but the rest are right there with him and I can't make a case for any of them. I can make a mild case for a bunch of them.....but I still think Millenium Jet may be better.

the_fat_man · #**130** 09-10-2008, 10:46 PM

I don't know what to do in this race. Turf claimers (excluding maidens) are the most difficult race to handicap for me.

If I get something >= the morning line, I'm going to bet Monsooned Malabar. He's 1 for 15 lifetime and 0 for 6 on the turf, stretching out (which I don't typically like) and even though he's breaking from the 4 hole, he's almost guaranteed a WIDE trip with Johnny V

HOWEVER

his last race was the most impressive of any horse in the race. He went against race dynamics, was extremely wide throughout, and finished absolutely FULL Of RUN.

blackthroatedwind · #**131** 09-10-2008, 10:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I don't know what to do in this race. Turf claimers (excluding maidens) are the most difficult race to handicap for me.

If I get something >= the morning line, I'm going to bet Monsooned Malabar. He's 1 for 15 lifetime and 0 for 6 on the turf, stretching out (which I don't typically like) and even though he's breaking from the 4 hole, he's almost guaranteed a WIDE trip with Johnny V

HOWEVER

his last race was the most impressive of any horse in the race. He went against race dynamics, was extremely wide throughout, and finished absolutely FULL Of RUN.

I agree....but here's the problem......it was a 5 1/2 Furlong race that he was cutting back to and had no chance to win ( based on race dynamics ) so of course he put in a major late ( but obviously ineffectual ) run. How could he not? Millenium Jet would have as well. All he really did was run strongly for a furlong.

the_fat_man · #**132** 09-10-2008, 11:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I agree....but here's the problem......it was a 5 1/2 Furlong race that he was cutting back to and had no chance to win ( based on race dynamics ) so of course he put in a major late ( but obviously ineffectual ) run. How could he not? Millenium Jet would have as well. All he really did was run strongly for a furlong.

That's what makes the game so difficult --especially the way we play it.

I typically don't play horses like this, as I agree with most of your points.

However, in a race where the top 4 finishers ran essentially EVENLY all around the track, he was the only horse to pass, and pass significantly.

Suffice to say, there are easier spots than this race.

blackthroatedwind · #**133** 09-10-2008, 11:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

That's what makes the game so difficult --especially the way we play it.

I typically don't play horses like this, as I agree with most of your points.

However, in a race where the top 4 finishers ran essentially EVENLY all around the track, he was the only horse to pass, and pass significantly.

Suffice to say, there are easier spots than this race.

And here are more problems with him.....

How do you explain him being outfinished by EZ Dollar two back? Even if you equalize the trips the best he did was run a similar race.

Then there's the fact that this is his 4th race in 26 days....and third in 17 days. And, this follows three races in a 20 day span, which preceded his long 15 day layoff. I'm not saying I know what to make of this but it feels like a bit of a concern.

Treacherous race.

the_fat_man · #**134** 09-10-2008, 11:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And here are more problems with him.....

How do you explain him being outfinished by EZ Dollar two back? Even if you equalize the trips the best he did was run a similar race.

Then there's the fact that this is his 4th race in 26 days....and third in 17 days. And, this follows three races in a 20 day span, which preceded his long 15 day layoff. I'm not saying I know what to make of this but it feels like a bit of a concern.

Treacherous race.

And E Z Dollar gets a HUGE jockey change.

No doubt you raise very good points. Between this one and Contessa's (other) runner in the 5th, Debbie's Fast Girl, with that very deceiving ground saving inside trip and COLLAPSE (it's relative given the sub 23 last split), while being absolutely beaten to death, there is MUCHO mind numbing material.

pick4 · #**135** 09-10-2008, 11:20 PM

The 7th race looks like it could have a decent pace.
Cool Tales should contest the pace. Frenchman's Cove is adding blinkers and adding Coa so I would expect him to be near the front. Plus Another Gulch has shown speed but I think he has the quickness to keep up with the other two but that might not keep him from trying. I think a horse sitting 5 lengths or so early can close and win this race.

Since these are non winners of 2 lifetime the pickings are slim but I think you should take a look at Monsooned Malibar and E Z Dollar. Monsooned Malibar usually closes and either breaks poorly or is wide or gets into traffic. E Z Dollar has shown that he is a grass horse and fits with theses horses. His sprints were OK and he showed can pass horses. Those turf sprint races were a huge upgrade from his dreadful dirt races. His last race he saved ground early and was wide coming into the stretch. He made up ground and ran a good third. I see that Hertler switches to Kent D. Kent has not been riding as well as he was last year. However he has given a lot of horses good rides on the Belmont lawn. I like that E Z Dollar can sit behind horses and close in decent fractions. The jockey switch from the 7 pound bug boy to Kent D indicates the trainer wants a pro who can ride a horse of the Belmont Widener turf course.

I think E Z Dollar is worth a win bet but I will add Monsooned Malibar in multis.

blackthroatedwind · #**136** 09-10-2008, 11:21 PM

It is a huge switch and maybe what he really wanted to do was stretch out on the turf. However, even given the switch, how can he get a better trip than he did last time. Other than Cruz-Berrios's silly windmill whipping he road this horse perfectly last time.

blackthroatedwind · #**137** 09-10-2008, 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pick4

The jockey switch from the 7 pound bug boy to Kent D indicates the trainer wants a pro who can ride a horse of the Belmont Widener turf course.

Actually, it shows that nobody would ride the horse last time but after that performance he was able to get a more accomplished rider.

Not saying the horse can't win....but my scenerio is very likely closer to reality.

pick4 · #**138** 09-10-2008, 11:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Actually, it shows that nobody would ride the horse last time but after that performance he was able to get a more accomplished rider.

Not saying the horse can't win....but my scenerio is very likely closer to reality.

You might be right about Millennium Jet as he's facing a weak bunch. I just have a feeling E Z Dollar is going to run a good race. Reality is less than 17 hours away and since it is leg two of the pick four hopefully the winner of the race was just mentioned in this post.

ateamstupid · #**139** 09-11-2008, 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So what's wrong with Millenium Jet then?

I actually agree with you, his last two races were good considering circumstances and if I had to pick one horse, it'd probably be him. I just would hate to be leaning on a horse that's still winless on the grass after 11 tries.

blackthroatedwind · #**140** 09-11-2008, 07:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I actually agree with you, his last two races were good considering circumstances and if I had to pick one horse, it'd probably be him. I just would hate to be leaning on a horse that's still winless on the grass after 11 tries.

I don't disagree. If I played the Pick-6 for reasonably small money, as I think it's somewhat managable, I would single him. However, I don't trust him either. He's got a little of that fool's gold feel to him.