Vineyard Haven Sold...

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Linny

They have been reasonably successful in Europe but they have a "season" where we don't. Apart from some minor regional stuff on PolyTrack, there is not racing over the winter. The season goes from April to October. In April a Euro horse coming up to the big races has been away for a few months followed by legging up and possibly a start before the Guineas, the first Classic. Many of the horses in the Guineas are making their seasonal debut. They are all at the same disadvantage in terms of lack of racing and all make the classics in about the same manner.
Here we begin the 4 month run-up to the Derby on Jan 1st. By the time we get to the Derby our colts have several races often tough "character builders" in advance of the big day.
While you can win British classics "off the farm" it has not worked here in the modern era.

This is sort of what I was referring to earlier when I said that it might be as much about how they are trained as it is where. The vast majority of the success that the Dubai owners have had has been in Europe and perhaps out of habit, they have had a hard time adjusting to the differences needed to prepare a horse for racing in the United States as opposed to Europe. In addition to the things you listed above, there also is the different style of racing. American dirt racing is slanted more towards speed than European grass racing. It's a totally different style of training needed to win the different types of races. One that they obviously haven't mastered as far as American racing goes.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by ELA

As far as whether or not they (Darley) are buying "the right kind of horse" -- well, that could be a debate that goes on and on forever. The results can only speak to one conclusion. Regardless and aside from the horses, I think it's a valid question as to whether or not it's a good idea to have 2yo's here in the US, ship them overseas, prep them over there, and then bring them back for the Derby or TC. I think it's hard enough to win the Derby regardless of where and how you try it, and doing it the Darley way appears to make it substantially tougher.

My take is that even if a horse comes a long and does it -- that doesn't add any more credibility to the position that it's a good idea. Just because one horse does it, doesn't make it a good idea. Possible vs. feasible vs. effective? Perhaps.

I guess wanting to do it "his way" is just as good a reason as any -- for him that is.

Eric

I think it is a very valid question and as said earlier, by no means am I saying that there is no difference or that it's the best way. I was only reacting to those that automatically wrote off Vineyard Haven's chances and said that the Dubai way will never work. I think it can and will and when it does, the so called "Dubai Curse" will go the way of the "Juvenile Jinx" and the belief that a horse can't win with only two starts. There will obviously have to be some adjustments made by the Dubai outfit. What those changes have to be, I don't know. I just feel that there are other reasons why it hasn't happened other than the fact that they are shipping to Dubai.

[Handicappy]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i think that one thing darley ignores is shipping...we all know that shipping can be hard on a horse, and they do it often, with young stock. they buy here, spend time in quarantine, and then travel. and then a few months later, do it again-while trying to prepare for what is probably the toughest race they'll ever attempt.
perhaps if they concentrated on getting good horses and doing right by them, instead of trying to make the horses fit their mold, they'd have a better thing going each spring. you have to follow the horses cues if you want good results.
blues and royals a few years back was one of their most promising horses. he missed all three classics from illness after shipping here from dubai, eventually succumbing to shipping fever. yet they continue to try. why? seems counter-productive.
but then...he buys horses here to ship to dubai for their carnival-that hasn't worked too well either. how's thor's echo these days?

excellent post

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Sure, I never said they haven't. But what does that have to do with my question?

Well, I took your question to suggest that it was ridiculous to prep a horse in the US with an eye towards a race in Europe.

In the same vein, it sounds just as ridiculous to prep a horse in Dubai with an eye towards a race in Europe, yet it seems to work well for them.

My point was that both situations don't really have anything to do with prepping a horse in Dubai with an eye towards the Derby.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Linny

They have been reasonably successful in Europe but they have a "season" where we don't. Apart from some minor regional stuff on PolyTrack, there is not racing over the winter. The season goes from April to October. In April a Euro horse coming up to the big races has been away for a few months followed by legging up and possibly a start before the Guineas, the first Classic. Many of the horses in the Guineas are making their seasonal debut. They are all at the same disadvantage in terms of lack of racing and all make the classics in about the same manner.
Here we begin the 4 month run-up to the Derby on Jan 1st. By the time we get to the Derby our colts have several races often tough "character builders" in advance of the big day.
While you can win British classics "off the farm" it has not worked here in the modern era.

Yep. But at the same time, when the Dubai horses came over here to run in the Derby, didn't they all have a couple of prep races? They weren't exactly coming to Churchill Downs "off the farm".

I think other factors are more at play here for their horrendous failure.

[Linny]

They had run in the UAE Derby and Guineas. Those races can be tough (like this year, Cocoa Beach was 3rd in the Derby) and they are also not placed that well on the calendar.
Horse that ran well in either of the two have flopped in KY and those that ran poorly behind top class Southern Hemisphere colts and fillies (Asiatic Boy last year) have even less shot. They don't usually make it at all.
The other option is essentially "allowance" races for horses classified at up to 110lbs, which they run often at the Carnival. The problem is that those races are too easy. They don't get you ready for KY either. Meanwhile the best US colts are training hard and facing off in Florida, Cali, Louisiana and even NY.
The point is that yes, they have had success in Europe in the spring, but not THAT much and not with Dubai based horses. Again I say "that much" because they own much of the best bloodstock on earth. Also, if they have done well there, not here you have to look at the differences between the two places (US vs Europe) and try to find reasons.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

Not exactly. What I was trying to say, and i apologize if it wasn't clear, is if you are already in Europe, it's silly to come to America to prep for a race that is in Europe. Just like I think it's ridiculous to take a horse that is here, and bring them to Dubai to prep for a race here. Make more sense?

That makes plenty of sense. But that's more a situation like the one in 2003 when Outta Here, an American-trained and raced horse, prepped for the Kentucky Derby by shipping to run in the UAE Derby.

What's not being mentioned is that the entire Godolphin band of horses, 3yos and older, are sent to Dubai. Winter in Dubai is the game plan for all their horses, not just 3yos targeting the Kentucky Derby. Its analagous (on a much larger scale) to old-time stables like Rokeby wintering their horses in Aiken, or WH Perry or Phipps stables sending horses to Santa Anita for the winter. They're there for several months.

In and of itself, I don't think this "regrouping" method is a bad idea. Where probably most of the problem lies, as opposed to the switch in locale--though obviously the long ship can easily knock out some horses--, is the switch in training/management (which is the plight of nearly all their 2yos). Not that the Suroor guy sucks, it just seems to be an untimely point in their careers to changing up the training program on developing horses. Its almost like the horses, being in new hands, have to start from scratch (this is what allegedly happened to Ruler's Court). It would be interesting to see how things would have played out if Eoin Harty and David Loder stayed on as head trainers for their strings while in Dubai.

Most of the failures of Godolphin to win the Kentucky Derby has been because they haven't shown up for the race, not because their horses have run like sh!t in it. In fact, the few horses they have started have given fairly decent accounts of themselves (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Express Tour). In addition, perhaps their two classiest candidates, Street Cry and Aljabr, were injured just days before the Derby.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I agree with a good portion of this. Especially the trainer stuff. But I do think the major problem is shipping to Dubai. In this day and age I think it's asking a lot of a horse to overcome all of that. But, hey it's their money.

Yep. It'd be better though--if they're intent on doing it their way--to do it with the horses they developed from the get-go, not top 2yos that they cherry-picked (or ones they happened to have handed to them-- in the case of Midshipman) at the end of the year.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

That makes plenty of sense. But that's more a situation like the one in 2003 when Outta Here, an American-trained and raced horse, prepped for the Kentucky Derby by shipping to run in the UAE Derby.

What's not being mentioned is that the entire Godolphin band of horses, 3yos and older, are sent to Dubai. Winter in Dubai is the game plan for all their horses, not just 3yos targeting the Kentucky Derby. Its analagous (on a much larger scale) to old-time stables like Rokeby wintering their horses in Aiken, or WH Perry or Phipps stables sending horses to Santa Anita for the winter. They're there for several months.

In and of itself, I don't think this "regrouping" method is a bad idea. Where probably most of the problem lies, as opposed to the switch in locale--though obviously the long ship can easily knock out some horses--, is the switch in training/management (which is the plight of nearly all their 2yos). Not that the Suroor guy sucks, it just seems to be an untimely point in their careers to changing up the training program on developing horses. Its almost like the horses, being in new hands, have to start from scratch (this is what allegedly happened to Ruler's Court). It would be interesting to see how things would have played out if Eoin Harty and David Loder stayed on as head trainers for their strings while in Dubai.

Most of the failures of Godolphin to win the Kentucky Derby has been because they haven't shown up for the race, not because their horses have run like sh!t in it. In fact, the few horses they have started have given fairly decent accounts of themselves (Worldly Manner, China Visit, Express Tour). In addition, perhaps their two classiest candidates, Street Cry and Aljabr, were injured just days before the Derby.

a few hour trip to aiken is not comparable to quarantine and then a flight to dubai-the flight alone to dubai is far longer than a drive from new york to aiken.
and then they have to do it again in a few months. i just think it's too much stress on a horse, and that it's unnecessary. it takes only a few hours to fly from new york to cali, but how often do you see it attempted? not very-most horses and trainers stay at their base, or within a few hours drive. also, i've read that many trainers either ship in immediately before the race, or two weeks ahead, as many horses come down with something after a few days of shipping-and often that was just a van ride. so, think about quarantine, and then the van ride to the airport, hours upon hours on a plane, and then another ride, etc--and multiply that times two for those going over, and then coming back.

besides, we all know that the derby is a tough customer-and many say it's not the time to try anything new, and you need great luck. so why compound the difficulties with unnecessary travel, especially with younger horses?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

besides, we all know that the derby is a tough customer-and many say it's not the time to try anything new, and you need great luck. so why compound the difficulties with unnecessary travel, especially with younger horses?

Simply put, the travel is necessary because that's where they winter their horses. The Derby is just one of the goals of the operation. Does that mean they should disrupt their whole setup just because its not an ideal arrangement for one specific race? Apparently not. Particularly when they don't necessarily produce a viable contender every year (and haven't now for some time) to begin with.

[ELA]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Simply put, the travel is necessary because that's where they winter their horses. The Derby is just one of the goals of the operation. Does that mean they should disrupt their whole setup just because its not an ideal arrangement for one specific race? Apparently not. Particularly when they don't necessarily produce a viable contender every year (and haven't now for some time) to begin with.

This is a good point, however, I guess my question is -- is it that simple? The Derby is a big goal of theirs. If this is "where they winter their horses" so to speak, then doesn't that become the route or "plan" to get to the Derby (which is just one of the goals, although it seems to be a big goal)? Sure it is -- they want to do it their way. They are using their wintering of their horses as their plan to get to the goal -- the Derby. What I mean is that perhaps the "plan" to get to the "goal" should be strategic and feasible. Maybe it should be reassessed. Would an alternative plan "disrupt" their whole setup being that there is a goal in mind? I don't mean to go in circles here, but I guess it comes down to a few simple items.

First, I want to do it my way. Second, my goal is that I want to win the Derby. If my way isn't working, I either change my way or change my goal. Sure, it's oversimplified. But they stable horses all over the world. I don't know if it's a disruption as much as it's more efficient planning.

Thanks.

Eric

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Simply put, the travel is necessary because that's where they winter their horses. The Derby is just one of the goals of the operation. Does that mean they should disrupt their whole setup just because its not an ideal arrangement for one specific race? Apparently not. Particularly when they don't necessarily produce a viable contender every year (and haven't now for some time) to begin with.

but surely they could winter their american contingent somewhere a bit closer? not like the guy can't afford to buy yet another farm. and many of theirs run here all year long, so it's not like they target just the derby and head back. also, like i said before, they need to do what's best for their horses-ignoring what a horse is telling you is not the way to winning races. if they're going to run horses here, i would assume after their years of struggling, that maybe it's time for a change in tactics.

[my miss storm cat]

I thought this was interesting... figured I'd post it for his fans (assuming he still has fans, of course).

"Vineyard Haven did not do well when he got to Dubai. We made a mistake in running him at the Dubai International Racing Carnival and now we are just giving him the time to do better in himself. When he gets back to America, he will step up a gear."

http://www.godolphin.com/NewsArticle.aspx?id=4326

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't know what was more of a shock today. A John Ward horse getting injured, or a nice 2 year old that was bought up, shipped to Dubai and he didn't do well afterwards.

Well said. I can't imagine what kind of stuff Ward has on Oxley because I wouldn't have put up with his shi.t even if were lifelong friends. It's getting beyond ridiculous.

NT

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't know what was more of a shock today. A John Ward horse getting injured, or a nice 2 year old that was bought up, shipped to Dubai and he didn't do well afterwards.

The haters seem to think our friends in royal blue (applause!) don't admit mistakes. That was part of the reason I posted it.

[blackthroatedwind]

It would be even better if they admitted they made a mistake shipping him ( and Midshipman ) to Dubai.

When they do that they will get a LOT closer to actually having an impact on out TC races.

[reese]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I agree, it's a nice gesture to admit it. Now the next step would be to learn from those mistakes. Baby steps...

If you are implying the Sheik admit the mistake is "sending his stable
to winter in Dubai, then returning 3-yr olds to race in the Derby... the odds of that happening are...50-1 .

Jason Levin spelled out clearly in his book Desert to Derby that the Sheik "is determined to win the KD with a Godolphin 3-yr old horse who wintered in Dubai". The Sheik "always gets what he wants" except a KD winner.

Soon the day will be here when Godolphin will own every Derby contender, and where they "winter will be irrelevant"

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

I thought this was interesting... figured I'd post it for his fans (assuming he still has fans, of course).

"Vineyard Haven did not do well when he got to Dubai. We made a mistake in running him at the Dubai International Racing Carnival and now we are just giving him the time to do better in himself. When he gets back to America, he will step up a gear."

"F the desert, and these people in sheets. I used to get some bagel(now nothing.")-V.H.