6/6 (BEL): Belmont; Manhattan; Acorn; Just a Game; Et Al..

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Done, have a good weekend!

You too!!

[slotdirt]

Where's my Summer Bird vs. Dunkirk action?

[King Glorious]

I don't know who will win but I've decided that:

Chocolate Candy
Mine that Bird
Summer Bird
Luv Guv
Mr. Hot Stuff

Can't win. I think the winner comes from Dunkirk, Charitable Man, and Flying Private.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Antitrust32

Those are my three horses also... Though I do not expect Flying Private to win... I could see him hitting the board.

I would actually bet someone in a head to head I'll take Flying Private and they can have Charity Case.

I happen to agree with you, but you can do much better than that oddswise. You can get 2.9-1 on Flying Private (vs Charitable Man) at 5Dimes. You can get 2.75-1 at Bookmaker. But here's one I maybe like even better:

CHARITABLE MAN VS FLYING PRIVATE (BELMONT STAKES) (5:55 pm ET)
Outcome Lengths Money Line
CHARITABLE MAN -3.5 -160
FLYING PRIVATE +3.5 +130

That gives you Flying Private plus 3.5 lengths vs Charitable Man at odds of 1.3 to 1 (World Sports Exchange, www.wsex.com)

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

For those who are pretty sure Mine That Bird won't/can't win, there's this attractive bet at 5Dimes and Pinnacle:

Mine That Bird wins Belmont +170
Field wins Belmont Stakes -200

(At Pinnacle it's +193/-215)

So you only have to lay 2-1 to collect some easy Mine-That-Bird-can't-win money.

Personally, I think those 2 books have it lined just right.

--Dunbar

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

For those who are pretty sure Mine That Bird won't/can't win, there's this attractive bet at 5Dimes and Pinnacle:

Mine That Bird wins Belmont +170
Field wins Belmont Stakes -200

(At Pinnacle it's +193/-215)

So you only have to lay 2-1 to collect some easy Mine-That-Bird-can't-win money.

Personally, I think those 2 books have it lined just right.

--Dunbar

I agree ( again ). I'm happy to bet against Mine That Bird but I also think he's in the 30% to 35% range to win.

[Dunbar]

Here are the best offshore future prices for the Belmont using TheGreek, Pinnacle and 5Dimes:

Choc Candy 11.75 Pinn
Dunkirk 4.85 Greek
Mr. Hot Stuff 22 Pinn
Summer Bird 11.01 Pinn
Luv Gov 52.5 Greek
Charitable Man 3.65 Greek
Mine That Bird 1.93 Pinn
Flying Private 30.5 Greek
Miner's Escape 40.5 Greek
Brave Victory 40.5 Greek

That combined line has a 3% takeout. The biggest differences in the 3 books are on Flying Private and Luv Gov. TheGreek had Flying Private at +2550 yesterday and is up to +3050 today. Meanwhile, both Pinnacle and 5Dimes are around 15-1 for Flying Private. TheGreek is also much more generous on Luv Gov. Luv Gov is 30-1 at the other 2 books.

--Dunbar

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Here are the best offshore future prices for the Belmont using TheGreek, Pinnacle and 5Dimes:

Choc Candy 11.75 Pinn
Dunkirk 4.85 Greek
Mr. Hot Stuff 22 Pinn
Summer Bird 11.01 Pinn
Luv Gov 52.5 Greek
Charitable Man 3.65 Greek
Mine That Bird 1.93 Pinn
Flying Private 30.5 Greek
Miner's Escape 40.5 Greek
Brave Victory 40.5 Greek

That combined line has a 3% takeout. The biggest differences in the 3 books are on Flying Private and Luv Gov. TheGreek had Flying Private at +2550 yesterday and is up to +3050 today. Meanwhile, both Pinnacle and 5Dimes are around 15-1 for Flying Private. TheGreek is also much more generous on Luv Gov. Luv Gov is 30-1 at the other 2 books.

Overnight changes:

The most amusing change, to me at least, is that Pinnacle's odds on Miner's Escape and Brave Victory have dropped from 40-1 to 14.8-1. Only a few other small changes at Pinnacle, including lowering Mine That Bird from 1.93-1 to 1.90-1.

At TheGreek, the only change at all was a lowering of Mine That Bird's odds from 1.85-1 to 1.6-1.

5Dimes did a lot of tweaking, but still isn't offering the best odds on any horse.

--Dunbar

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by gales0678

the old poster here says he is going to scratch , he's been bobby's right hand man for a very long time

Can you ask Dixie why they scratched Champs instead?

[Bobby Fischer]

Mine That Bird will not be in the exacta. He will flatten out in a 12 furlong race.

He won the derby on tactics.

The preakness fell apart and sucked other than the winner.

Birdstone as sire does NOT mean the horse is bred to go 12 furlongs. This example has illustrated how poor the public pedigree info is. Summer Bird will not be around either.

Charitable Man, Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy are the only 3 real 12 furlong horses in the race. Box them in the exacta until it comes out of your ears.

[Gander]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Can you ask Dixie why they scratched Champs instead?

I think hes been spending too much time sunbathing with Tori Spelling and Paris Hilton.

[letswastemoney]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

Mine That Bird will not be in the exacta. He will flatten out in a 12 furlong race.

He won the derby on tactics.

The preakness fell apart and sucked other than the winner.

Birdstone as sire does NOT mean the horse is bred to go 12 furlongs. This example has illustrated how poor the public pedigree info is. Summer Bird will not be around either.

Charitable Man, Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy are the only 3 real 12 furlong horses in the race. Box them in the exacta until it comes out of your ears.

Why wouldn't you think the son of a Belmont winner can't get 12 furlongs?

[King Glorious]

Fabulous Strike
Two Step Salsa
Benny the Bull

Forever Together
Carribean Sunset
My Princess Jess

Hull
Everyday Heroes
This One's for Phil

Dream Play
Funny Moon
Justwhistledixie

Charitable Man
Flying Private
Dunkirk

[SniperSB23]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Can you ask Dixie why they scratched Champs instead?

I'm sure Dixie convinced Bobby that the Hollywood Gold Cup would be a better spot.

[Travis Stone]

Nice win for Angel Penna Jr... if anyone has had the pleasure of chatting with him before, he's a really cool guy. Tough to play those turf sprinting closers stretching-out, but they won hands-down.

[Gauchos0522]

Tough to like her was an understatement from my point of view. I would have included her underneath if I played the tri simply because Penna has been so hot, but I'm certaintly not a sucker for stretch out sprinters who haven't run in a graded race in a grade 1 race.

[Travis Stone]

Munnings looks like his Dad when he runs.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Nice win for Angel Penna Jr... if anyone has had the pleasure of chatting with him before, he's a really cool guy. Tough to play those turf sprinting closers stretching-out, but they won hands-down.

Isn't it interesting, with all the concern about guys stepping up horses, that Penna Jr., who's stepped up some incredible plugs, is beyond reproach. Not saying he's juicing, as he's clearly one of the best horsemen in the game but what he's done with Diamondrella, Bialetti, and some of the others is incredible.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by letswastemoney

Why wouldn't you think the son of a Belmont winner can't get 12 furlongs?

It doesn't tell you one way or another. Obviously it's better than some obscure 2yo sprint sire, but it certainly isn't the lock every pedigree writeup seems to say it is about getting or loving the distance. Look him over with every bit the critical eye you would a closing 6furlong horse going a mile.

[Mike]

Tri key Charitable Man over Choco Candy, Dunkirk and Mine That Bird

I have a win wager on Flying Private based solely on pedigree

With Charitable Man a current overlay, I felt I had to do this