136th Kentucky Derby (PP's)

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Garcia and Lezcano??

Thompson(only if the track is fast), Garcia, and Talamo. I know this equals 3 but these 3 horses seemed to be the most talented.

[otisotisotis]

Originally Posted by tjfla

Conveyance from behind?? The only time he will be behind the field is when other horses are passing him in the stretch. He will be out front

I think there's a good chance he gets squeezed at the start and gets forced to follow.

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by CSC

Thompson(only if the track is fast), Garcia, and Talamo. I know this equals 3 but these 3 horses seemed to be the most talented.

I have the same feeling about Garcia. First Derby and all but can't see him getting into any real trouble...

[CSC]

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

I have the same feeling about Garcia. First Derby and all but can't see him getting into any real trouble...

Conveyance is a very nice horse, that we know, as for the race/pace dynamics it looks congested up front so it will be a challenge. He will be a decent price, without trying to overthink how the race will be run or who will take back or who will gun for the lead. He's less obvious than LAL and SC, so that is a plus.

[moses]

Is there an updated version of the past performances floating around anywhere?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by moses

Is there an updated version of the past performances floating around anywhere?

www.drf.com

[moses]

Originally Posted by robfla

www.drf.com

Ahh -- didn't realize DRF had a free version up. Thanks.

[MinnSkinny]

Pretty nice work of 58.4 in the slop today........

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/...r/clocker.html

[slotdirt]

That can't be right. I think that was probably referring to his work of last weekend.

[clyde]

Great derby stuff,guys.





Do you all copy off croutons---or what?

[Left Bank]

Devil May Care is the WINNER!

[Thoroughbred Fan]

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

No Lucky is a bad mistake. He runs well even under a bad trip which most are likely to get. He may not win, but if he isn't in the money, I'll never post a selection again.

[nomad]

Originally Posted by otisotisotis

I have run my numbers and only been able to cut to 7 potential winners....

Dublin - can't toss.
Sidney's Candy - why not?
Conveyance - most consistant, but can he run from behind?
Super Saver - does he make the big jump?
American Lion - dirt move is for the best.
Jackson Bend - I'm thinking plugger for the 3 or 4 spot.
Ice Box - peaking at the right time,or was he geared for FLA.

still more work to form a wager........we shall see....

You have a good analysis. You're right that Lucky can't be tossed. My daughter says Dublin should be eliminated but he always tries, the way they've been beating eachother, it just might be his turn. My top is Sidney.

[Antitrust32]

My picks:

Oaks / Derby double

5, 8 / 2, 10, 11, 15, 20


Race 9 tomorrow: $5 win HULL (#6)

Race 11 (Derby) $2 win Line of David (#5)

exacta Key the 20 / 2, 3, 4, 5, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17

then the reverse bet of that also.

might do another small Ex box with the 2, 10 & 11


GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!

[CSC]

My picks are based on the very good chance of an off track.

Quite simply if Paddy O'Prado can handle the switch to dirt or muddy slop in this case, he should sit a good trip behind the speed. Conveyance will be worked in on the slight chance the pace is not as hot as expected. He's too good a horse at an expected good price. Sidney's Candy is hard to ignore and I think this is the year to take a chance on the poly to dirt angle in the derby. Will work in possible longshots to save, namely Stately Victor pedigree is an interesting mix of dirt and turf.

1. Paddy O'Prado might surprise them all.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

Is Setsuko going to be the classic overbet potential Derby horse who runs up the track in the American Turf? This seems to be the sort of "consolation" race for horses pointing for the Derby who are left out of the starting gate, and none of them ever seem to run well in this spot.

Boy were you right. Opened up at 3-5. Thanks but no thanks.

[IrishofNDMan]

Does backtalk have a Mine that Bird type chance, I'm starting to think so.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Does backtalk have a Mine that Bird type chance, I'm starting to think so.

My husband thinks so. I actually LAUGHED at him when he told me he put some $$$ on Backtalk. But then again I still kick myself for only putting $10 to win on War Emblem instead of the $20 my husband TOLD me to. I laughed at him about that pick too. I only put the $10 to win on WE because I had done well in the other races that day and had some extra cash and it got the hubby to stop calling me and telling me to put money on WE.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

Does backtalk have a Mine that Bird type chance, I'm starting to think so.

Those mine that bird races don't happen very often.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

Those mine that bird races don't happen very often.

I totally agree. I am leaning towards a 10-1 or so less horse winning.