8/1 (MTH): Haskell (G1), Oceanport & Matchmaker (G3's)

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'll bet it's higher. I think they'll give him something in the 105-109 range.

105 so far.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Both the Haskell and Jim Dandy Beyer almost certainly will be 105.

Omniscient gets whatever Lookin At Lucky gets. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve ran back to the Delaware race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

Well I still think he's mediocre... but the best of the crop, which says a lot about the other 3yo's.

I think Eskanderya was miles the best of this sad pitiful crop.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I have a question for you. You say that you don't think Garcia is a very good jockey. He's 44 for 157 (42%) this year for Baffert. Do you think Baffert would have done better if he used someone else on those horses? Off the top of your head, can you come up with even one race where Garcia cost Baffert a win this year? I think Garcia has ridden lights out for Baffert this year. I highly doubt any other jock would have done better with those mounts. It would be hard to improve on 42%.

44-for-157 isn't 42%, it's 28%.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Both the Haskell and Jim Dandy Beyer almost certainly will be 105.

Omniscient gets whatever Lookin At Lucky gets. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve ran back to the Delaware race.

A Little Warm got a 103.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think Eskanderya was miles the best of this sad pitiful crop.

Forgot about him. Agree.

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

44-for-157 isn't 42%, it's 28%.

Since when?!?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by philcski

Forgot about him. Agree.



Since when?!?

when i do the math, it's 28.

[CSC]

That's ironic this is what I said to Indian Charlie in a post earlier in the day...I'll never be misconstrued with Issac Newton or Pythagoras, good to see I am not alone here. But come on guys and gals it's simple division

[Danzig]

i rounded in my head and came up with roughly one quarter...160 divided by 40...so no way 157 and 44 can be almost half.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Danzig

when i do the math, it's 28.

Pretty sure Phil was being sarcastic. It's 28%, which is about average for a jockey riding for a powerhouse barn like Baffert's.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pretty sure Phil was being sarcastic. It's 28%, which is about average for a jockey riding for a powerhouse barn like Baffert's.

could be.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Pretty sure Phil was being sarcastic. It's 28%, which is about average for a jockey riding for a powerhouse barn like Baffert's.

Yes - Rupert obviously got the 42% stuck in his head when I told him that about 42% of Martin Garcia's total wins this year have come for Baffert and 58% for other trainers not named Baffert.

Having first dibs in the Baffert barn is huge.

In 2009, when Baffert and Gomez teamed up - their record was 95-41-19-9 - for a 43.2% win percentage and a $2.38 ROI.

Gomez is a different type of rider than Garcia ... he'll save ground and every once in a while one will get trapped or stopped. Garcia will put them in a position so that if the horse is 2 lengths the best - he'll win by a half length - but he very rarely gets stopped.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Both the Haskell and Jim Dandy Beyer almost certainly will be 105.

Omniscient gets whatever Lookin At Lucky gets. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve ran back to the Delaware race.

105 for LAL and 103 for the the Dandy.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

44-for-157 isn't 42%, it's 28%.

I was mixed up. As DrugS said, I had the 42% figure in my head from the other stat. Anyway, even 28% is a great number. I can't remember Garcia blowing any for Baffert this year. I think he's ridden great for him.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yes - Rupert obviously got the 42% stuck in his head when I told him that about 42% of Martin Garcia's total wins this year have come for Baffert and 58% for other trainers not named Baffert.

Having first dibs in the Baffert barn is huge.

In 2009, when Baffert and Gomez teamed up - their record was 95-41-19-9 - for a 43.2% win percentage and a $2.38 ROI.

Gomez is a different type of rider than Garcia ... he'll save ground and every once in a while one will get trapped or stopped. Garcia will put them in a position so that if the horse is 2 lengths the best - he'll win by a half length - but he very rarely gets stopped.

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

[Scav]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

It is what happened with Michael Baze here, Catalano called for a reliever and called Sellers in. Baze is still getting mounts that Cat felt he rode well or horses he has been working but the others have gone to Sellers or Geroux

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

I'm not saying that Garcia will necessarily be riding #1 for Baffert forever. But if he continues to ride well for him, I would expect him to at least be riding a lot for him for the next few years. If Garcia starts giving him a lot of bad rides, he will be done in 6 months.

Garcia is still learning but I think he's geting better all the time. I think he's stepped up to another level this year. When you ride for a guy as sharp as Baffert, you're going to learn a lot because these top trainers actually teach these guys things.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well.

Baffert called Garcia something like "the best jockey out there at working horses in the morning" or something like that .. and I would assume having an agent named Pegram wouldn't hurt your cause with getting the benefit of the doubt from that specific barn.

The problem with a lot of Garcia's bad rides is that they don't pass for bad rides because they're not bad rides visually so much as they're bad rides analytically.

Gomez's ride on Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby was only a bad one because Espinoza went above and beyond the call of duty of race riding. You think if Gomez had LAL widest on both turns he would have ran down Sidney's Candy that day?

There are going to be a lot of times where Garcia is going to come up a half length short with a clear trip - where someone like a Gomez would have won by a length on the same horse with one of his ground saving well timed good rides.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

I bet you will see Garcia's numbers go way up on the grass. There is no reason for him not to do well on the grass. He's a good rider and he's a smart rider. He's a much better rider now than he used to be. I think some trainers are hesitant to put a young rider on their good grass horses before the young rider is really proven. Now that Garcia is starting to prove himself to people, I think I think you will see him getting better mounts on the grass and I think his numbers on the grass will go way up. Time will tell.